Right now Obama leads by about 10-12 pts in the all the polls that have been coming out of PA recently. But honestly, like I've been saying, does that make any sense? Look at Kerry 2004.
-Philly's already maxed out, the city goes 80% for the Dem every time. Obama's not going to able to improve THAT much.
-Central PA is going to be brutal for him
-Do you see Obama doing better than Kerry in the Pittsburgh area? I don't.
So basically, were supposed to believe Obama is picking up TEN points in the state overall from the Philly 'burbs. Maybe 4 or 5.... not 10.
I would say that it is very likely that the internals are showing PA reasonably close to the nat'l average... close enough for McCain to stay because he need to close the national gap to win anyway. Michigan is too stubborn... there was no way McCain was winning it... and if he did it's not like he would've needed it.
PA is not going to be a 55-43 Obama blowout like the polls show right now. McCain's chances of winning are beyond slim... but on election day I see McCain doing reasonably well consider that he's looking at a 6 pt loss nationally right now.
I'll call it 53-45 Obama.
Take a look at the Casey vs. Santorum map.
If current trends continue, it won't be much different with Obama vs. McCain ...
