CNN/Time: Obama leads in OH, WI & NH, McCain in IN, NC toss-up

[Tender Branson]

Indiana:

McCain - 51%
Obama - 46%

New Hampshire:

Obama - 53%
McCain - 45%

North Carolina:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 49%

Ohio:

Obama - 50%
McCain - 47%

Wisconsin:

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conduced October 3-6, with 677 likely voters in Indiana; 813 likely voters in New Hampshire; 666 likely voters in North Carolina; 749 likely voters in Ohio; and 859 likely voters in Wisconsin, all questioned by telephone.

The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin, and plus or minus 4 percentage points in Indiana and North Carolina.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/07/cnn-polls-new-obama-gains-in-battleground-states/#more-23059

[Tender Branson]

I really like these polls.

IN is right where I expect it to be, Obama's ceiling is probably 47-48%, if we assume that a few undecideds are added to the 46%.

In OH it will come down to the Independents: If Obama wins Indies by higher single digits, he should carry the state. He needs to win by this margin, because more Democrats will vote for McCain than Republicans for Obama. Rasmussen had Indies for McCain by 2 yesterday, but I doubt this was true.

North Carolina should be really interesting. But I expect Obama to get only 30-35% of Whites in the end, enabling a slight McCain win.

No comment on WI and NH, at the moment they seem to be out of reach for McCain.

[Tender Branson]

Note on North Carolina, Kerry won around 35% of the whites in 2004. Like I said many moons ago, NC will be an all nighter for all three races being held.

I think you're some sort of psychic. Didn't you predict Palin would be chosen in a dream a while back?

I had a dream that McCain called out his VP and she walked out and she had on glasses, a dress skirt, and dirty blonde hair. I couldn't make out the face at all, that was back around Aug 5th. I also had another dream about 3 weeks ago, that I was looking at the returns of NC on election day and Obama was winning Guilford county and he had 60% in guilford county and McCain was winning Forsyth by 2%.

Yeah, maybe you are psychic. I wouldn't be surprised if he did win Forsyth county at this point.

He wasn't winning forsyth, McCain was, by 2%

So, if Obama wins Guilford county with 60% and McCain leads Forsyth by 2%, is that good for Obama?

Probably not enough to win the state.