2008: Mike Huckabee (R) vs. Barack Obama (D)

[Tender Branson]

In a Huckabee vs. Obama matchup, I´d expect Obama to be the initial favorite after Supertuesday, with polls showing him ahead of Huckabee by more or less than 10% until Mid-2008, basically status-quo for another 7-8 months. Obama would outraise Huckabee by about 2-1, also the same pattern we have seen so far from the Party Committees and adjusted Bush-Kerry figures. By September 2008 I would expect Huckabee to close the gap with Obama in states like Missouri, Ohio, Virginia and elsewhere, but if current trends continue, I see no reason why Obama shouldn´t win all the Kerry-states + Iowa and New Mexico, as well as Colorado maybe, where Obama is polling well right now. That would result in a 273 EV Obama victory on Election Day, while the South, including Florida, would remain mostly Republican.

[Tender Branson]

My point is that Huckabee is not the type of candidate who plays well in Washington or NH.

Huckabee would get crushed in Washington.

SUSA showed Obama leading him by 20.
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

I'm surprised he is only leading by 20%.

very few have heard of Huckabee outside of Arkansas and Iowa

And they will never hear of him if his poor fundraising continues ...