Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[Tender Branson]

Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson will skip it.

So who´s going to win and who´s likely to drop out afterwards ?

I think Romney will win and Hunter and Huckabee are likely to drop out.

"State GOP officials predict as many as 40 thousand activists will take part in the event. If that many people turn out, it would represent more than a third the number of Republicans who likely will show up this winter for the caucuses."

1999 Iowa Straw Poll results:

Bush: 7418 votes - 31%
Forbes: 4921 votes - 21%
Dole: 3410 votes - 14%

2000 Iowa Caucus results:

Bush:  35,231 votes - 41% 
Forbes: 26,198 votes - 30% 
Keyes: 12,268 votes - 14%

[Tender Branson]

Tommy Thompson may also drop out if he´s not doing well in the straw poll, considering this:

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[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

1 - Romney
2 - Paul
3 - T. Thompson
4 - Brownback
5 - Huckabee
6 - Tancredo
7 - Hunter
8 - Cox

What about Giuliani, McCain and F. Thompson ? They are on the ballot, but not campaigning ? So what are the chances that either F. Thompson or Rudy Giuliani comes in 2nd after Romney, despite not campaigning ?

[Tender Branson]

By the way, there was a strong correlation between fundraising totals and Iowa straw poll results in 1999, as the candidates with $ tend to spend a lot to get their people out.  So I expect that Paul, Brownback, and Tancredo will do well (relative to where they are in the polls) because they have the most $ of anyone in the second tier.  Whereas Huckabee, Hunter, and Thompson will not do that well, relative to what you would expect from their poll standings.  Romney will obviously win.

I agree completely. That has been my thinking all along.

This business of Giuliani, F. Thompson, and McCain skipping Ames, however, still has me guessing. When McCain skipped in 1999, he was barely a candidate yet, and he wasn't doing much in the polls (correct me if I'm wrong there). So, this is truly uncharted waters. I am predicting their straw-poll percentages will be far less than their media-poll percentages, but they are not going to come in at the back of the pack.

I think there´s a good chance that either Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani ends up in the Top-3, despite "skipping" it ...

[Tender Branson]

My Final Prediction:

Romney: 26%
Brownback: 13%
Tancredo: 12%
Huckabee: 11%
Giuliani: 9%
Paul: 8%
T. Thompson: 7%
F. Thompson: 6%
Hunter: 4%
McCain: 3%

Keyes: about 0.5%
Cox: about 0.3%
Gilmore: about 0.2%

Turnout prediction: 30.000-35.000 votes will be cast

And yes, there are indeed a few Keyes supporters there:

[Tender Branson]

Exactly what time is the straw poll?

Now.

Exactly from 10am Iowa Time to 6pm. At 7pm the results will be released. 8 hours to go.

[Tender Branson]

Final results of the straw poll:

1 - Romney: 4.516 - 31.5%
2 - Huckabee: 2.587 - 18.1%
3 - Brownback: 2.192 - 15.3%
4 - Tancredo: 1.961 - 13.7%
5 - Paul: 1.305 - 9.1%
6 - T. Thompson: 1.039 - 7.3%
7 - F. Thompson: 203 - 1.4%
8 - Giuliani: 183 - 1.3%
9 - Hunter: 174 - 1.2%
10 - McCain: 101 - 1.0%
11 - Cox: 41 - 0.1%

Turnout: 14,302 Total Votes - 26,000 Total Tickets Sold

My Final Prediction:

Romney: 26%
Brownback: 13%
Tancredo: 12%
Huckabee: 11%
Giuliani: 9%
Paul: 8%
T. Thompson: 7%
F. Thompson: 6%
Hunter: 4%
McCain: 3%

Keyes: about 0.5%
Cox: about 0.3%
Gilmore: about 0.2%

Turnout prediction: 30.000-35.000 votes will be cast

As to my prediction: I quite overestimated Giuliani´s strength but I knew the race for second with Huckabee, Brownback and Tancredo would be tight. Also the turnout figure was way lower than I had thought ...

But a nice win for Romney.

[Tender Branson]

9 - Hunter: 174 - 1.2%
10 - McCain: 101 - 1.0%
11 - Cox: 41 - 0.1%

These numbers and percentages don't make any sense.  If 41 votes is 0.1%, then how is 101 votes 1.0% and 174 votes 1.2%???

That´s a good question: Seems they got the percentages wrong. I´ll check it.

[Tender Branson]

... and Huckabee is on his way in.

"Hillary Clinton Still Tops in Arkansas Poll. Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock conducted the survey for Arkansas News Bureau-Stephens Media Group. In a head-to-head match up, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for Clinton, 36 percent favored the governor, and 15 percent were undecided."

For all the "Hillary Clinton can´t take AR against a Republican" ...