Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Tender Branson]

Hey, i´m back, i see you did some analysis:

Some points to add:

The Conservatives (ÖVP) cited tremendous problems in the GOTV efforts and the low turnout for their loss. Chancellor Schüssel for now will not retreat he said and work in the next coalition.

A big disappointment was also the Polling Research Insitutes, who all predicted the ÖVP to win by 2-3%, but I don´t really blame them, because these polls have MoE of 4-5% and the election result yesterday was in the MoE in favor of the Social Democrats.

Another bad day for Hans-Peter-Martin, who was also very disappointed with his 3% he got (here the polls were correct).

The winners of course, the Social Democrats whos alleged involvement in the BAWAG affair didn´t hurt them much and therefore cruised to an (mostly unexpected) win.

The Greens, with their best result ever in Austria, and the best result of any Green Party in Europe A good result for the party I voted for, alltough they stayed behind the FPÖ by about 32.000 votes. This can also change in the coming week when the more than 400.000 absentee ballots are counted, which traditionally favor ÖVP and Greens. Last time the Greens held 20% of the absentee vote and the FPÖ 7%, which means that the 32.000 vote gap could eventually be closed and the Greens could become 3rd largest party.

The FPÖ: Very aggressively campaigning in Vienna but contrary to the state elections last year, they stayed behind the Greens this year in Vienna. The FPÖ and BZÖ together gained much votes across Austria at the expense of the ÖVP. In 2002 the ÖVP gained lots of votes from the affair shaken FPÖ and therefore won the election with over 42%. Now lots of voters went back to the FPÖ.

The BZÖ: Very strong in Carinthia, but barely recognized elsewhere. We have to see what the absentee ballots look like. There´s the possibility that the BZÖ is dragged down below the 4% line and would therefore fail to be in parliament.

And another good day for the Communists who also gained some votes.

Maps:

Here´s how the districts went:

Dark blue: ÖVP won with more than 50%
Light blue: ÖVP won with fewer than 50%

Brown: SPÖ won with more than 50%
Red: SPÖ won with fewer than 50%



compared with the 2002 result here, the ÖVP lost up to or more than 10%, especially in their stronholds in Vorarlberg, Tirol, Salzburg, Upper and Lower Austria:

[Tender Branson]

Detailed results and graphics can be found here on the page of the Interior Minstry:

http://wahl06.bmi.gv.at/

[Tender Branson]

Update:

It really seems that the Greens could become 3rd largest party when the about 250.000 absentee ballots have arrived and counted next Monday.

In 2002 the Greens got about 20% of the absentee vote and the FPÖ 7%. The Greens would need about 14-15% more than the FPÖ to get more overall votes. We´ll have to see, it gets close I think.

Coalitions:

Even if the BZÖ gets just 1% of the absentee vote, they will stay above 4% and therefore will be in the parliament.

That means that no SPÖ-Green and no ÖVP-Green coalition will be possible, therefore the most likey outcome will be a Grand Coalition.

It would be the 17th Grand Coalition in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Here´s some interesting fact that shows what lead to the defeat of the Conservatives:

They lost the support of the Catholic Electorate and especially the regular Catholic churchgoers (a trend similar to the GOP and the Evangelicals in the US this year -> GOP's Hold on Evangelicals Weakening)

Here´s a graphic showing the Exit poll conducted right after the election with a sample of 2000 people. It shows the vote by religion in last Sundays election compared to the 2002 election:



The first line indicates party voting by the regular catholic churchogoers.

The second line indicates sporadic catholic churchgoing voting.

the third line shows how all catholics voted.

in the 4th line is the protestant/evangelical vote

in the 5th the votes of people with other (eg. Muslim, Jewish, Bhuddists) religions

in the 6th those without religion

For better understanding, Austria has about 70% Catholics, 5% Protestants, 5% Muslims, 3% Other Religions and 17% with no religion.

[Tender Branson]

How many of the Catholics are regular churchgoers?

(PS got to love the similarity between Danish and German: Regelmässige katholische Kirchgänger = regelmæssige katolske kirkegængere)

The article where I got the exit poll from says that about 1/5 of the Austrian electorate are regular Catholic churchgoers.

and: danish and german are germanic languages, as is english, therefore the similarity. Whats funny is that allthough the Swiss talk German I sometimes understand the Dutch better then the Swiss, because of their strange dialect

[Tender Branson]

Here´s a good map for all the cities and towns in Austria:





Preliminary absentee ballot counts indicate that the Greens might overtake the FPÖ and become 3. largest party. Because of the big amount of Green absentee votes, the BZÖ will lose 1 seat while the Greens will gain 1. About 250.000 absentee ballots will arive and be counted until Monday. Then we have the final vote result.

The final seat count is:

SPÖ: 68
ÖVP: 66
Greens: 21
FPÖ: 21
BZÖ: 7

And: A Grand-Coaltion is now very likely.

[Tender Branson]

Finally it happened - The Greens are third largest party now !

They overtook the FPÖ by about 500 votes, because of their strong showing in the absentee ballots.

This means that for the first time the Greens will get the 3. Parliamentary President after the 1. (SPÖ) and the 2. (ÖVP)

The results:

Absentee result:

SPÖ: 74.557 - 28,98%
ÖVP: 93.306 - 36,27%
Greens: 53.313 - 20,72%
FPÖ: 20.285 - 7,89%
BZÖ: 6.811 - 2,65%
Others: 8.987 - 3,49%

Alltogether: 257.259 valid abs. votes

Overall final result:

SPÖ: 1.663.986 - 35,34%
ÖVP: 1.616.493 - 34,33%
Greens: 520.130 - 11,05%
FPÖ: 519.598 - 11,04%
BZÖ: 193.539 - 4,11%
Others: 194.535 - 4,13%

Alltogether: 4.708.281 valid votes

Final Turnout: 78,5%

[Tender Branson]

The final seat count is:

SPÖ: 68
ÖVP: 66
Greens: 21
FPÖ: 21
BZÖ: 7

Has that been confirmed to be right now that the official (or at least not just preliminary) result of the absentee ballot count (and thus the overall count) has come in?  I thought perhaps the SPÖ might loose a seat and/or the ÖVP gain one, but I haven't done any calculations.

This is the official count now. The Greens gained 1 seat at the expense of the BZÖ, which was underrepresented in the absentee ballot compared to the national vote, while the Greens were overrepresented. The absentee share of the SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ wasn´t much different to the national vote, therefore the seats remained unchanged

[Tender Branson]

Currently there's a stalemate in the Coalition talks with the SPÖ insisting to cancel the already bought Eurofighter jets, but the ÖVP wants to keep them.

The ÖVP is threatening to block negotiations with the SPÖ and will decide today if they end talks with the winner of the election.

The mayor of Vienna, a very influential person inside the SPÖ, has said that "New Elections" will follow if the ÖVP stays bullheaded...

[Tender Branson]

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.  Those almost three decade old Tiger II's being leased from the Swiss aren't viable as anthing other than a stopgap, and if not Eurofighter, what?

We should buy them. It´s always good to see them at air shows

I´m still in favor of buying these aircraft. I wouldn´t have said no to 30 Saab Gripens either. The problem is our politicians are debating this subject now for 21 years (!). in 1985 the then SPÖ-FPÖ coalition agreed to buy new fighter jets for the Austrian military by the mid 90s. But in the mid 90s the SPÖ-Chancellor said the issue should be dealt with after the 99 elections. The ÖVP-FPÖ coalition agreed then to buy the fighters. And now today the SPÖ, FPÖ and Greens brought in a investigation committee before parliament. In my opinion a referendum should have been set up in the mid 90s and we would have seen if the Austrians want the fighters or not. I´m convinced they would have wanted them. But now after battle lines are drawn, the public is about evenly split. This issue should have been resolved way earlier...

[Tender Branson]

As I predicted yesterday, the ÖVP indeed decided to terminate coalition talks with the SPÖ.

What will follow now ?

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Another possibility is that the ÖVP gives up its stubbornness and returns to the negotiating table with the SPÖ (unlikely).

[Tender Branson]

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?

Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the ÖVP for the shutdown of the SPÖ-ÖVP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SPÖ-Green-FPÖ proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the ÖVP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today I´ve read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the ÖVP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SPÖ-Greens and FPÖ you´ve adressed isn´t really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FPÖ are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FPÖ would ever work together. To add: Austria has a tradition of very long coalition talks. After the last 2 elections talks lasted about 3 months. We have to see what happens next. According to new polls, the SPÖ could get up to 38% now and the Greens 12%, with the ÖVP at 32%. It would certainly help the Social Democrats to call for new elections and hope for a Red-Green-majority. But I don´t trust our polling institutions anymore, after their mess in October After a proposal for new elections is agreed on in parliament and approved, new elections would take place 10 weeks after the parliament vote. Which means the earliest date for new elections is in January. But now we have to wait what the ÖVP is doing - Will they negotiate again or not and what our president, Heinz Fischer will do - he also can serve as a middleman and give advices. He himself also has the power to dissolve the National Council and call for new elections - which is more unlikely than a party proposal in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?

Actually, it is quite a possible scenario if the Austrians were used to it. Denmark have had this type of government in many periods. It all depends on wheather you have "possitive" or "negative" parliamentarism. Possitive being that the government needs a majority for it, like Germany, Negative being that there has to be a majority against the government, it has to be voted down in parliament to fall. I the case of Austria, it would be nessesary for the ÖVP to vote against the government together with BZÖ and FPÖ to cause it to fall - that said, I don't know if Austria allows such governments.

Well, as Jens pointed out, Austrians for the most part blame the ÖVP for the shutdown of the SPÖ-ÖVP Coalition talks. And they are more "used" to the joint SPÖ-Green-FPÖ proposal in parliament to install a investigation comittee of the Eurofighters than they are used to the upholding of the purchase of the Jets proposed by the ÖVP. I have to correct myself: Yesterday I posted that the Austrians are evenly split between buying and cancelling the Jets. Today I´ve read that the oppose buying them by 60-40. So it seems the ÖVP is clearly on the defense. The credibility of SPÖ-Greens and FPÖ you´ve adressed isn´t really at stake now, because they have the population's opinion on their side. Greens and FPÖ are just working together on the Eurofighter jets, but when it comes to real coalition talks between both, I doubt Greens and FPÖ would ever work together.

Yes, but except for the whole Eurofighters thing is there much else SPÖ/Greens and FPÖ agree on? I mean, I don't see much common ground to justify such a constellation... even if the FPÖ is only tolerating SPÖ/Greens, without joining a formal coalition. The mere opposition to the Eurofighters isn't constituting much basis for any form of medium-term or even long-term cooperation. Is the FPÖ supposed to elect an SPÖ chancellor simply on the grounds that he's oppsing the Eurofighters? That's what I meant.

A Minority Government is what the ÖVP is pokering for. They assume it would break into pieces within a year, therefore giving the ÖVP enough time co consolidate its power and surge ahead of the SPÖ in new elections. That the SPÖ doesn´t really want a minority government is obvious, they would be clever if they cannibalize the Jet-Issue and bring the ÖVP further into a defensive position so that they can get about 37% of the vote, Greens 12% and therefore the majority. It wouldn´t be clever for the Greens either to go into a minority government tolerated by the FPÖ. They would betray their own party after what I´ve seen in the pre-election debates. Green and FPÖ policies are diametrically opposed to each other. The Jet-harmony between both parties is just a result of the flip-flopping of the FPÖ, which first were in favor of buying them, now they are against them.

[Tender Branson]

Nothing new after weeks of coalition deadlock, except for a new poll:

In case there were new elections, people would vote like this:

SPÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 32%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 13%

Others (BZÖ, KPÖ, etc.): 3%

Also:

About 60% of Austrians are now in favor of new elections, including me.

Means: SPÖ-Green would have an overwhelming majority right now, but its also known that the party that calls for new elections will get punished at the polls then. Which I find strange, because a majority of Austrians are in favor of new elections, but according to political analysts it is that way. Another uncertainty would be another campaign. If the BZÖ gets above 4% again, we would eventually have the same results as now.

How did Faust say ?

"Here now I stand, poor fool, and see
I'm just as wise as formerly."

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP and SPÖ are talking again and negotiators from both parties say there´s a good climate. They agreed on amnesty for foreign nursing staff and a programm against youth unemployment. The Eurofghter issue is put aside until a parliamentary investigation comitee has dealt with the issue. The coaltion should be ready by Christmas, if nothing else happens.

[Tender Branson]

I did that test thing (a bit late now I know) and got some weird results:

BZO: 60
KPO: 59
Grune: 53
OVP: 46
SPO: -22
FPO: -80

WTF ? BZÖ and Communists at the top ? Together ? How did you answer those questions ?

[Tender Branson]

Finally we are getting a Grand Coalition. The voting age will be lowered to 16 and there are some other changes regarding tuition, basic income etc. more later, gotta go back to work...

[Tender Branson]

Austria's 2 main parties agree on creation of new government

Published: January 8, 2007

VIENNA: Austria's two main parties have agreed on the formation of a new coalition government, the head of Austria's Social Democrats said Monday.

Alfred Gusenbauer, leader of the center-left party and the country's next chancellor, made the announcement at a joint news conference with Wolfgang Schuessel, the outgoing chancellor and head of the centrist People's Party.

The deal comes more than three months after the Social Democrats narrowly topped the polls in national elections.

"We have completed the negotiations for the creation of a new Austrian government," Gusenbauer said.

In the Oct. 1 vote, the Social Democrats won 35.3 percent of the ballot, defeating the People's Party by 1 percentage point.

Both parties met to form a so-called grand coalition after the elections, but the People's Party broke off contacts to protest a decision by the Social Democrats to join with two smaller parties to investigate the government purchase of combat aircraft and to probe Austrian banks for signs of possible wrongdoing.

Talks resumed late November following weeks of deadlock and gained momentum over the weekend following agreement on financial matters late Friday.

"In particular, we want to invest in the future of our country," said the 46-year-old Gusenbauer. He outlined several things the new government wants to achieve, including a new approach to university tuition fees and a reduction of Austria's legal voting age to 16.

Students who "are prepared to contribute to society," by working in institutions such as hospices, will not have to pay tuition fees, Gusenbauer said.

Gusenbauer also said the new government would seek to make Austria more competitive globally and reduce unemployment.

The post of vice chancellor is expected to go to the People's Party, which will also head the key finance, foreign, interior, economy, health, agriculture and science ministries. The Social Democrats will run ministries dealing with defense, education, justice, infrastructure and social affairs.

The new defense minister, as yet unnamed, will have the task of reducing the cost of Austria's current contract for 18 combat jets that caused severe tension between the two parties, the Austria Press Agency reported. At the onset of the negotiations, the Social Democrats wanted to cancel the contract signed under Schuessel's government.

"I hope, it will be successful," Gusenbauer said.

The new government also hopes to make child subsidies more flexible and increase oil taxes.

Peter Filzmaier, one of Austria's most respected political scientists, said on public television that the decisive factor would be whether the new coalition was truly a "common big project" or if it was agreed upon because other options — such as a Social Democratic minority government or the People's Party in opposition — appeared "unattractive or risky."

A swearing-in of the new Cabinet by President Heinz Fischer could happen as early as Thursday.

Other Austrian political parties were skeptical about Monday's decision.

Alexander Van der Bellen, head of the Greens, said in an interview with the Austria Press Agency that the Social Democrats and the People's Party did not recognize the central questions related to Austria's future.

Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of the rightist Freedom Party, said in a statement that Gusenbauer wanted to make it into the "Guinness Book of Records" for breaking the most election promises.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/08/europe/EU-POL-Austria-New-Government.php

[Tender Branson]

Alrighty, now we got the Grand-Coalition and it´s already doomed by Austrians after 1 week, particularly the Social Democrats, who nearly broke all of their campaign promises (tuition fees should be abolished and the ordererd jets for the military should be cancelled they said during the campaign) Now it seems both the fees and the jets will stay.

The result: The Centrist ÖVP is seen as the clear winner of the coaltion talks and new polls for possible new elections now say following:

ÖVP - 38%
SPÖ - 32%
Greens - 13%
Far Right (FPÖ, BZÖ) - 15%
Others - 2%

I wouldn´t be surprised by a strong showing of the Left (Greens) and the Far Right in the next elections due to protest voters. Similar to 1999.

[Tender Branson]

Just because í´m bored

The poll numbers of Austrian Parties since the Oct. 2006 election:



Social Dems were riding high until they broke most of their campain promises in January, but seem to experience an up-tick lately.

ÖVP: Mirrors the numbers of the SPÖ

Greens: Seem to do slightly better each time

The Far Right (FPÖ/BZÖ): Seem to do slightly worse than in 10/2006.

Conclusion:

Parties on the Left: 51%
Parties on the Right: 49%

[Tender Branson]

Here´s an early preview of the 6 Austrian state elections in 2008 and 2009.

In 2008, 2 Austrian state elections will take place in:

* Tyrol (where I study)
* Lower Austria

The 2003 election results were:

Tyrol:

ÖVP: 49,9%
SPÖ: 25,9%
Greens: 15,5%
FPÖ: 8,0%
KPÖ: 0,7%

Current opinion polls for the Tyrolian 2008 elections:

ÖVP: 45%
SPÖ: 30%
Greens: 16%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 2%

Lower Austria:

ÖVP: 53,3%
SPÖ: 33,6%
Greens: 7,2%
FPÖ: 4,5%
KPÖ: 0,8%
Others: 0,7%

Current opinion polls for the Lower Austria 2008 elections:

ÖVP: 53%
SPÖ: 31%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 6%
BZÖ: 1%

In 2009, 4 state elections will take place in:

* Salzburg (my home state)
* Carinthia
* Upper Austria
* Vorarlberg

The 2004 election results were:

Salzburg:

SPÖ: 45,4%
ÖVP: 37,9%
FPÖ: 8,7%
Greens: 8,0%

Current opinion polls for the Salzburg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 49%
ÖVP: 35%
Greens: 8%
FPÖ: 8%

Carinthia:

FPÖ: 42,5%
SPÖ: 38,4%
ÖVP: 11,6%
Greens: 6,7%

Current opinion polls for the Carinthia 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 44%
BZÖ: 24%
ÖVP: 15%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 7%

Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43,4%
SPÖ: 38,3%
Greens: 9,1%
FPÖ: 8,4%

Current opinion polls for the Upper Austria 2009 elections:

ÖVP: 46%
SPÖ: 34%
Greens: 12%
FPÖ: 7%

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

[Tender Branson]

No state elections in 2007?

Nope, in 2007 there are no important elections in Austria. There was speculation that the Governor of Lower Austria could call for earlier elections in the fall of 2007, but he rejected the proposal, saying a full term will be served. Opinion polls show the ruling state ÖVP would win a majority - therefore the speculation.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

What has the ÖVP state government done to the people of Voralberg that its support has plummeted so significantly?  My guess is there must have been a major exposing of corruption or other big scandal of some kind.

Also, were any of the state parliamentary elections cited in your post held after Jörg Haider split with the FPÖ and formed the BZÖ?  It would be interesting if the BZÖ was pulling support from the FPÖ after an earlier election which the two parties contested.  I imagine most of the FPÖ members of the Carinthian state parliament elected in the last state election are now BZÖ members, as Haider is still listed as the Governor of Carinthia in Wikipedia.

Sry, i mixed up the numbers for the ÖVP and SPÖ in Vorarlberg It´s the ÖVP at 50% and the SPÖ at 17% ...

For the BZÖ: The BZÖ is about non-existant in states other than Carinthia. They got 1% each in the state elections held in Vienna and Styria in 2005 and they were not on the list in the 2005 Burgenland elections. And yeah, most former FPÖ members in Carinthia are now in the state BZÖ.

But it is very likely that the Social Democrats will win the 2009 elections, because of the FPÖ-BZÖ split and Gabi Schaunig will become the first (woman) governor of the state and we would bave 2 Gabis as governors. The other is the current governor of my state Salzburg, Gabi Burgstaller.

Gabi Schaunig would definitely be better than Jörg Haider.

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia - Results of last election in 2004:

FPÖ: 42,5%
SPÖ: 38,4%
ÖVP: 11,6%
Greens: 6,7%

Current opinion polls for the Carinthia 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 44%
BZÖ: 24%
ÖVP: 15%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 7%

New poll released for Carinthia today:

Haider's BZÖ seems to gain some ground

SPÖ: 37%
BZÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 8%
FPÖ: 6%

[Tender Branson]

The final party expenditures for last years parliamentary elections have been released and they spent far more than previously estimated:

ÖVP: 17.3 Mio. € (22.5 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 7 Mio. €)
SPÖ: 14.5 Mio. € (18.9 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 7 Mio. €)
FPÖ: 6.2 Mio. € (8.1 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 5 Mio. €)
Greens: 2.6 Mio. € (3.4 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 4 Mio. €)
BZÖ: 1.8 Mio. € (3.4 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 5 Mio. €)

Alltogether 43 Mio. € (56 Mio. $) have been spent on the 2006 elections, or 5€ per capita, 7€ per eligible voter, or 9€ per valid vote.

For the fact that Austria just accounts for 1/37 of the US-population, the election costs would have amounted to 2 Bio. $ in the US ...