Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Tender Branson]

New poll out today:

Profil-OGM

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 35%
Greens - 11%
FPÖ - 7%
BZÖ - 3%
HPM - 4%
Others - 1%

This would mean that the BZÖ won´t be in the next parliament !

[Tender Branson]

I hope BZO comes just clsoet to 4% but doesn't go eover. that way they don't get in parliament and lots fo votes get taken away from freedom party and are weasted

I don´t know about that. Because the BZÖ will be a likely strong force in the state of Carinthia (they could get about 10-20% there) i think they are some kind of underpolled when it comes to whole Austria. I think they can cross the 4% line.

[Tender Branson]

According to the recent OGM poll, the ÖVP is ahead of the SPÖ 41% to 37% in the state of Styria and i will therefore change my prediction. Also the BZÖ could get 19% in Carinthia according to the poll. They would need about 2,5% elsewhere in Austria to cross the 4% line.

The new prediction:



Black: ÖVP (Conservatives) will win
Red: SPÖ (Social Democrats) will win

[Tender Branson]

Race is tightening:

New Gallup Poll - 31-08-2006:

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
HPM: 4%
Others: 2%

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

Kurier-Integral - 03.09.2006

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 8%
HPM: 5%
BZÖ: 4%

In the last days the campaign focus was the care of elderly people which benefitted the Social Democrats more than the ÖVP. Therefore the SPÖ cut the 4% lead of the ÖVP into only 2. HPM also benefitted and i think he´s likely underpolled and could get up to 10% in the election.

[Tender Branson]

Does Austria have a 4% or 5% threshold?

4%

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday the first debate between the Greens and the ÖVP took place. It was not so bad i think, they debated a flurry of issues, the Greens focusing on alternative energy measures and a better tax system, abolition of university tuition etc. while our Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser from the ÖVP focused on abolishing the death tax, estate tax or whatever you call this in the US and strengething the labor market, legalizing foreign care personnell etc. The debate was pretty well balanced i think with no clear winner.

A couple of days ago the Liberal forum decided to campaign together with the Social Democrats for this election but decided not to merge. The Social Democrats guaranteed them 1 fix seat in the Parliament. The Liberal Forum got just 1% the last election, but 1%+ for the SD could get them the win over the Conservatives. The poll lead of the ÖVP currently is somewhere between 2 and 4%.

[Tender Branson]

New poll out:

Profil-OGM (09-09-2006)

ÖVP - 38%
SPÖ - 35%
Greens - 10%
FPÖ - 9%
HPM - 5%
BZÖ - 2%
Others - 1%

It seems the BZÖ will fail to get into the parliament while the FPÖ are now fighting with the Greens for 3rd place.

[Tender Branson]

First Vorarlberg State poll:

ÖVP: 45%
SPÖ: 21%
Greens: 12%
FPÖ: 11%
HPM: 6%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

New Salzburg State poll:

ÖVP: 46%
SPÖ: 32%
Greens: 12%
FPÖ: 5%
HPM: 2%
BZÖ: 1,5%
Others: 1,5%

Confirms my estimate, that Western Austria will again vote for the ÖVP this year by a wide margin. Together wih the lead in the Styria poll, they could manage to hold all 6 states they had won in 2002.

[Tender Branson]

BZO voters will vote for FPO seeing the BZO weak result?

what about HPM? can he support or to be member of a coalition?

Yes, definetely. The FPÖ takes away votes from the ÖVP, the SPÖ and the BZÖ. The FPÖ will be very strong in Vienna this year i think, while the BZÖ will be strongest in Carinthia. The FPÖ is very aggressively campaigning against foreigners, the EU-membership of Turkey, the money Austria is paying for the EU etc. and is attracting more right-populist-nationalist voters than the BZÖ somehow. This was already the case in the Vienna state elections last year, when the FPÖ got 15% and the BZÖ just 1%.

HPM or the "Whites" as his list is called, will not enter a coalition with the BZÖ or FPÖ and has not announced plans to be in a coalition with the others, but maybe he will after the elections.

Because if the BZÖ fails, he could become a main player, for example when neither ÖVP and FPÖ, SPÖ and Greens or ÖVP and Greens have a majority of seats and no Grand Coalition can be agreed on, which is unlikely, but possible (-> German Elections last year, everyone thought CDU-FDP were winning it, but then they had to form a grand coalition)

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

IGF (Institut für Grundlagenforschung) - 12.09.2006

ÖVP: 39%
SPÖ: 34%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 8%
HPM: 4%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

41% of those polled don´t know yet for which party they will vote in 3 weeks.

These issues were most important to the voters:

25% Jobs
22% Social Issues
17% Immigration and Foreigners
11% Economy
8% Education
3% Europe

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian political landscape is now entirely split 2 weeks before the elections:

50% for the Center-Right and Right Parties:

ÖVP (39) + FPÖ ( 8 ) + BZÖ (3) = 50%

50% for the Center-Left and Left Parties:

SPÖ (35) + Greens (10) + HPM (4) + Communists (1) = 50%

Always interesting to see ...

[Tender Branson]

New interesting poll:

Profil-OGM 16.09.2006

ÖVP: 38%
SPÖ: 35%
FPÖ: 10%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
HPM: 3%
Others: 1%

BZÖ and HPM currently not in parliament, FPÖ is fighting for 3. place with the Greens.

15 days to go ...

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for Styria State (battleground this year and also bellwether state since 1945, voted with the federal winner in all elections):

ÖVP: 40%
SPÖ: 38%
FPÖ: 9%
Greens: 6%
BZÖ: 3%
KPÖ (Communist Party): 2%
HPM: 1%
Others: 1%

Surprisingly, the Communists are not that strong in Styria like they were in the state elections in 2005, when they got 7% there.

And the first OGM poll for Carinthia State:

SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 28%
BZÖ: 21%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 6%
HPM: 3%

With the 21% in Carinthia and about 3% elsewhere in Austria i think the BZÖ should cross the 4% line to get into the Parliament.

Other News:

I watched some debates and I think that after the elections there will only be a Grand Coalition, ÖVP-Green or SPÖ-Green.

[Tender Branson]

New SF poll for Salzburg State:

ÖVP: 46%
SPÖ: 31%
Greens: 13%
FPÖ: 6%
HPM: 2%
BZÖ: 1,5%
KPÖ: 0,5%

And the first OÖN poll for the State of Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43%
SPÖ: 37%
Greens: 10%
FPÖ: 7%
HPM: 2%
BZÖ: 1%

When I look at all recent state polls, I think the ÖVP will have a comfortable win in 2 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday the debate Greens vs. FPÖ took place and it was very weird, because of their contradicting positions on issues. Nearly all parties are now involved in smear campaigning and scandals.

The head of the Greens told the head of the FPÖ he is some kind of neonazi and that he´s surrounded by people with Nazi ideas while the FPÖ head accused members of the Greens to be molotov cocktail throwing extremists and a menace for drivers, because the Greens want to raise the gas price to 9$ the gallon and implement 60 mph even on highways.

Both then said: "Tomorrow our attorney will ring your doorbell and we will sue you !" The discussion ranged from accusations of diffamation and agitation of immigrants to denial of reality in cases of legalizing same sex marriages and some sort of basic income etc.

In other news, the SPÖ is involved in a major corruption scandal. A former investment banker from a union admitted giving "some thousand Euros" to the social democrats back in the 90s. The ÖVP is accusing the SDs to decieve the Austrian people and the SDs accuse the ÖVP to carry out a negative campaign. Indeed a Social Democrat governor described the ÖVP as a cancer cell. He later had to apologize.

The campaign debates are very poor when it comes to real issues like unemployment etc. and i think it´s now entering the phase where anyone tries to destroy the other party

Sounds fun.   Apparently, Austrian politics are much more interesting than German politics under the current Grand boring coalition.

At least until election day

Today the debate Greens vs. BZÖ will take place, which guarantees another funny hour to watch. And for sure sparks will fly

A new poll confirms what I said earlier, that the ÖVP will coast to a comfortable win on Oct. 1 if nothing amazing happens in the next 10 days.

NEWS-Market poll: 20-09-2006

ÖVP: 39%
SPÖ: 34%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 9%
HPM: 3%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 1%

Recently it looks like not only the BZÖ won´t be in the parliament but also HPMs List. Therefore we will likely have 4 parties in Parliament with either a Grand Coalition, ÖVP-Green or SPÖ-Green, as I posted earlier.

[Tender Branson]

I'd consider voting OVP if it were to form a 'Grand Coalition' with the SPO. If not, I'd likely vote SPO. I like the notion of having a Grand Coalition to keep the fruits and nuts out

I find Social Democracy and Christian Democracy the most palatable of the left and right ideologies

Dave

I already wondered why so few are voting for the Social Democrats in this poll here when the SDs are one of the strongest parties in Austria

But anyway, as I will vote Green I prefer ÖVP-Green, something new.

Yesterday, the big debate for Number 1 took place - ÖVP vs. SPÖ

It was very statesmanlike in my opinion and nobody really tried to "harm" the other party but it was a lively discussion on unemployment, healthcare, education and retirement money and not as polemic as the debates involving FPÖ and BZÖ.

It had some aspects of a grand-coalition and polls after the debate showed no clear winner. Wolfgang Schüssel (ÖVP chairman) was seen as more experienced and had better arguments and Alfred Gusenbauer (SPÖ chairman) was closer to citizens views. Both were congenial to the voters. All in all a balanced debate i think. We have to look now for the post-debate polls if any party can make extra points.

[Tender Branson]

First post debate poll:

Profil-OGM 23.09.2006

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
HPM: 3%
Others: 1%

Interesting, because this means that the BZÖ and HPM are not in parliament and therefore a SPÖ-Green coalition would have no majority but a ÖVP-Green would have one.

Also it seems that not only the Social Democrats are involved in this union/bank corruption scandal but also the ruling ÖVP incl. party chair Wolfgang Schüssel.

If the SPÖ can attack him and the ÖVP in the last week before the election it could become a cliffhanger election. Another fight will be for 3rd place

[Tender Branson]

Austria's minister of justice, who's from the BZÖ, announced her intention to leave the party today, citing the BZÖ's xenophobia as the main reason.

Yes, I read it in the newspaper some minutes ago. I always wondered why she was a member of the BZÖ in the first place because her liberal policies (she favors civil unions - and that inside a right-wing party !!!) did not really belong into the BZÖ. She now considers switching to the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Last post before the Sunday elections:

Yesterday the final debate with all 5 major party chairs took place. The debate was very factually and all 5 were adressing the Undecideds. Campaign ends for the parties will be tomorrow.

These 7 parties will try nationwide to come into parliament:

* ÖVP - (Österreichische Volkspartei - Austrian People's Party)
* SPÖ - (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs - Austrian Social Democratic Party)
* FPÖ - (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs - Austrian Freedom Party)
* Die Grünen - (The Greens)
* BZÖ - (Bündnis Zukunft Österreich - Alliance for the Future of Austria)
* Liste Dr. Martin: für Demokratie, Kontrolle und Gerechtigkeit - (List Dr. Martin: For Democracy, Control and Justice)
* KPÖ - (Kommunistische Partei Österreichs - Austrian Communist Party)

Latest Polls show:

Fight for 1st place: ÖVP vs. SPÖ

Fight for 3rd place: FPÖ vs. Greens

Fight for 5th place: List Dr. Martin vs. BZÖ

I also expect this result on Sunday night and a turnout between 75 and 80%.

2002 Results - 183 Seats

1 - ÖVP - 42,3% - 79 Seats
2 - SPÖ - 36,5% - 69 Seats
3 - FPÖ - 10,0% - 18 Seats
4 - Greens - 9,5% - 17 Seats
5 - Liberal Forum - 1,0% - 0 Seats (campaigns with the SPÖ this year)
6 - KPÖ - 0,6% - 0 Seats

On Sunday polls will be open from midnight until 5pm (11am NY Time) with exit polls exactly coming in at 5pm.

6.107.686 people will be able to vote, incl. me - my vote is Green.

Exit polls and detailed results can be found here (Sunday 11am NY Time):

www.news.at

[Tender Branson]

Yes ! D-Day has arrived I´m going to get some lunch now, then I´m going to vote with my family. See you when the results come in in about 5.5 hours

[Tender Branson]

Turnout figures just came in: slightly falling compared to 2002 but should remain above 80% or close to. Results coming in in slightly less than 2 hours

[Tender Branson]

Results coming in - 1st Exit poll:

1) SPÖ: 35,8%
2) ÖVP: 35,3%
3) FPÖ: 10,5%
4) Greens: 9,8%
5) BZÖ: 4,2%
6) Martin: 2,9%
7) KPÖ: 1,2%

Shocking result so far, and this can become a long, long evening ...maybe we have to wait for the absentee ballots ...

stay tunded ...

[Tender Branson]

2138 out of 2380 cities counted:

1) SPÖ: 35,8%
2) ÖVP: 34,5%
3) FPÖ: 11,1%
4) Greens: 10,3%
5) BZÖ: 4,1%
6) Martin: 2,8%
7) KPÖ: 1,1%

A strange result, because every single poll showed the ÖVP about 3% ahead. Massive losses for the Conservatives , best result for the Greens ever but not in front of the FPÖ, HPM not in parliament and the BZÖ struggling with the 4% mark to be in it.