Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Tender Branson]

My prediction is that Biden will start with a 62-30 job approval rating in an average of the first 10 RCP or 538 polls.

[Tender Branson]

Watch Rasmussen start out with Biden underwater.

I was close.  Their initial Biden daily poll is:

Approve 48 (strongly 36)
Disapprove 45 (strongly 38)

Their final Trump poll on Tuesday was 51/48 (strongly 36/41).

Rasmussen is a fraud pollster.

They pushed claims about Democratic election rigging for weeks after the election ...

[Tender Branson]

Incidentally, Trump's final approval rating was also 48%.

No, it was 51-48 approve.

They are a joke pollster, spreading conspiracy theories.

It's impossible that both Trump and Biden have a +3 job approval rating.

[Tender Branson]

So, all the regular pollsters show Biden’s approval at least at +20, while Rasmussen is at +1.

I think in reality Biden is at 55-40 or something, factoring in the underpolling of Trump in the election.

[Tender Branson]

There are now 6 Biden approval polls.

# Rasmussen
# YouGov
# MorningConsult
# Ipsos
# Monmouth
# HarrisX

The average is 55% approve, 36% disapprove (+19).

[Tender Branson]

Joe Biden job approval rating by state:

GA: Biden+26

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[Tender Branson]

Joe Biden job approval rating by state:

GA: Biden+26
NH: Biden+18

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[Tender Branson]

You are mixing up a lot of different polling methods in your map.

You use favourable ratings of Biden, approval of his transition period and actual job approval after he was sworn in.

This makes your map almost useless.

[Tender Branson]

You are mixing up a lot of different polling methods in your map.

You use favourable ratings of Biden, approval of his transition period and actual job approval after he was sworn in.

This makes your map almost useless.

You are mistaken.

Nowhere do I use any "Approval of Transition" polls. I use only both voter impressions of Biden and actual job approval after he was sworn in (which I imagine will be very similar, at least far more accurate than Approval of Transition).

For the first California Poll from Berkeley IGS, I use responses to the question "Overall voter impressions of President Joe Biden?", found on Page 2 of the document.

For the second California Poll from PPIC, I use Biden's Presidential job approval, found on Page 14 of the document.

For the Georgia poll, I use answers to the question "Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Joe Biden.", found on Page 25 of the document.

For the New Hampshire poll, I use Biden's Presidential job approval, found on Page 1 of the document.

For the New York poll, I use Biden's "favorability ratings", found on Page 3 of the document.

For the North Carolina poll, I use Biden's Presidential job approval, found on Page 3 of the document.

For the first Texas poll from UH, I use Biden's "favorability ratings", found on Page 3 of the document.

For the second Texas poll from Data for Progress, I use Biden's favorability rating found on Page 2 of the document.

For the Utah poll, I use Biden's favorability rating.

For the Wisconsin poll, I use Biden's favorability rating on Page 1 of the document.

---

It's quite strange, though, that you accuse me of mixing up Transition polls and approval polls, when, in fact, in your first map, you did just that.

You used the answer to the question: "Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly approve of the way the Joe Biden is handling his role in the presidential transition?" (found on page 6 of the document) when choosing your coloring for Georgia. On the other hand, for your New Hampshire poll, you used Presidential job approval.

I assume that map is, as you've said, "almost useless"?

---

I do have another issue with my map, though, and that's because I've been mixing up polls from Registered voters and Adults (which I frankly don't think matters too much because the FiveThirtyEight average shows that those two only have a 1% margin difference between themselves, but I'd like to take care of this now rather than have to deal with it later on). Which one do you think I should use?

But you cannot mix together favorable ratings polls and job approval polls, they are completely different.

In my first map, I used the GA poll because of GeorgiaModerate's post - which I thought was a first poll of GA with actual approvals after he was sworn in.

After checking the poll PDF, it seems as if the poll only asked about the transition period.

So, only my map with NH should count then.

As for your map, please remove all the "favorable" polls.

[Tender Branson]

We shouldn't be getting any more of the favorability polls anymore, now, correct? Now Biden's term has started and most polls taken will be Presidential approval?

Some polls will ask both approval and favorability questions.

Is there usually a difference between the responses to these two questions (in cases where both are asked)?

Yes.

Favourability is how a politician is seen as a person by the public.

Biden can be seen +5 favourable and in the same poll could get a +20 job approval rating.

These two metrics can be miles apart.

[Tender Branson]

pbrower, don't use favourables and approvals in the same map !

That's very confusing and unscientific.

There is already the map above with the approvals, so you can create a favourable map if you want.

[Tender Branson]

NH-St. Anselm:

53-45

Link

KY-Mason Dixon:

39-49

Link

MS-Mason Dixon:

35-56

Link

SD-Spry:

42-52

Link

[Tender Branson]

KY-Mason Dixon:

39-49

Link

MS-Mason Dixon:

35-56

Link

Wow, why is Biden polling so much lower in Mississippi (where Trump won by 16.6%) than he is in Kentucky (where Trump won by 25.9%)? From the same polling firm no less. Is Mississippi just that polarized?

On a side note, how do you find so many state polls?

Goodle.

[Tender Branson]

WA-SurveyUSA:

56-28

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ec9d3a2-bd83-4685-9802-54b1035a0b0d

[Tender Branson]

Neither the NY nor the GA poll should be used for pbrowers map.

[Tender Branson]

NY-Siena:

55% excellent/good
17% fair
21% poor

65% favourable
29% unfavourable

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SNY0221-CrosstabsALL.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Utah:



https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/2/21/22290323/poll-what-utahns-think-joe-biden-first-month-job-performance-coronavirus-handling-trump

[Tender Branson]

VA (CNU)

57% approve
36% disapprove

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-23.html

[Tender Branson]

St. Leo is a joke pollster.

They were off by 10 points each in FL and nationally ...

[Tender Branson]

GA (Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage)

41% approve
56% disapprove

MO (Remington)

43% approve
53% disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Biden is not -15 in Ga and lower than Missouri lol

It's Trashfalgar.

Biden is probably at 50-44 or something in GA right now.

[Tender Branson]

CO (Keating Research):

60% approve
38% disapprove

Also:

The KOM Colorado Poll from Keating Research, OnSight Public Affairs and Mike Melanson shows 56% of Colorado voters say they have a favorable opinion of Biden, who completed his 100th day in office on Thursday, while 42% give the president thumbs down.

Biden's favorability has ticked up slightly and his unfavorably has dropped in the six months since the firms last surveyed state voters just before the November election, when candidate Biden polled at 53%-46% favorable.

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/poll-shows-majority-of-colorado-voters-like-biden-but-most-republicans-think-election-was-stolen/article_57eb389c-a95b-11eb-9d0b-27724baab898.html

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/coloradopolitics.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/10/f10d7ff4-a982-11eb-9b87-9b437846510b/608bad7452ed0.pdf.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Biden quite popular in UT: