2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 630221 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2020, 09:17:31 PM »
Here’s some good news for Biden !

He’s cutting Hillary’s margins in WV a bit ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2020, 09:21:34 PM »
Democrats will have to face the reality soon:

Their Obama coalition as it was does not exist any longer.

Trump did a much better job at holding his rural base and expand into previous Democratic constituencies.

It will take an inspiring charismatic Democratic minority candidate again for them to win the Presidency.

Until then, Trump can claim he defeated the Democratic establishment twice !

On high turnout too.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2020, 09:25:11 PM »
This is an educational level-based election on steroids ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2020, 09:26:03 PM »
Biden dropping by 1% in NC for every 5% more that comes in ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2020, 09:32:47 PM »
At this point we can only hope Biden squeaks out the Presidency somehow.

Dems might not even win the Senate ...

NC is probably gone.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2020, 09:39:17 PM »
Quote from: forsythvoter on November 03, 2020, 09:38:35 PM
Whoa, NC is actually looking like a Biden win.

No.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2020, 09:39:56 PM »
CO (2.1 million votes counted, of ca. 3.4 million expected):

Biden +16
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2020, 09:41:17 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 03, 2020, 09:38:37 PM
in Ohio, there are still some votes out in Cuyahonga, Hamilton,Franklin,Summit and Athens. The red rural areas do look almost complete. Ohio is going down the wire, I wonder how this effects Iowa as well

OH will be Trump+5 or even +7 in the end.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2020, 09:48:05 PM »
If OH goes Trump (which I hope) and Biden squeezes out the Presidency and Trump ends with less than 270, but more than 240 EV, I’d make a lot of money.

Trump better not win more than 269 though ...

I’d still have an insurance bet if he does, but I’d not win that much money.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2020, 10:02:22 PM »
Trump will win FL by 5 points.

With record turnout.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2020, 10:08:09 PM »
At least the Minneapolis area isn’t looking all too bad for Biden, actually looking pretty good.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2020, 10:10:54 PM »
269-269 tie would be bad, House delegations would probably easily remain R.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2020, 10:19:27 PM »
CO has 2.7 million votes counted already.

Biden +17

Kanye West at 0.2%

CO is one of the bright spots in this horrible night.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2020, 10:33:56 PM »
Fond du Lac County, WI is apparently fully counted ?

Trump gains 2.5% vs. 2016
Biden gains 2% vs. 2016
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2020, 10:47:38 PM »
Douglas County in North WI is 100% counted.

Trump +8.5

2016: Hillary +7.5

Might be missing absentee/early votes though, because turnout is 6.000 votes lower.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2020, 04:55:34 AM »
Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2020, 05:08:40 AM »
Quote from: politics_king on November 04, 2020, 04:58:47 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 04, 2020, 04:55:34 AM
Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

Nevada will go to Biden, Georgia's remaining votes is in the Atlanta area which is heavily Democrat. North Carolina, I'm not sure but the margin is 70k votes. But if Biden gets Wisconsin & Michigan, it's over.

Isn't what's left in NV mostly R-leaning election day votes ?

Same in AZ(which is also not really safe at this point), GA and NC  ?

I would assume what's left in the upper states is just mail-votes, which could lead to big Biden vote dumps, but that might still not be enough for PA ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2020, 05:16:18 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 04, 2020, 05:12:33 AM
Have now included NC.

WI - Biden up by 8,789 (89% counted)

Of the remaining 389,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 190,400 of them. (48.8%)

MI - Biden down by 229,500 (78% counted)

Of the remaining 1,218,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 724,024 of them. (59.4%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 677,988 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,850,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,257,000 of them. (67.8%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 scenarios to win. One more state in addition to WI, and he will be elected as POTUS.


What's the source for "remaining" votes ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2020, 05:27:22 AM »
Still hoping Biden pulls this out, by losing FL+OH.

If Trump also ends up with 240-269 EV, I'd have won 2 high-risk bets on William Hill and cash in almost 1000€s ... (1200$).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2020, 05:58:33 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 04, 2020, 05:57:14 AM
Wisconsin holding steady for Biden. Biden still winning 60% of the votes in MI coming in as necessary to win the state. Biden is now less than 200,000 behind Trump.

WI - Biden up by 7,331 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~397,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 199,514 (80% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 667,500 of them. (58.8%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 scenarios to win. MI is the clear state where Biden is tracking well to take the Presidency.

If Biden wins NV, WI and MI, he will get 272 EC votes.

What's your source for uncounted ballots ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2020, 07:45:35 AM »
Turnout (absolute numbers) breaks 140 million, more than in any other US election.

Biden becomes the candidate with the highest number of raw votes, surpassing Obama 2008.

Just shy of 70 million.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2020, 07:48:25 AM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 07:46:45 AM
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 04, 2020, 07:40:23 AM
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 07:37:57 AM
Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?
It's legit, but it is realistically a pure tossup now. I'm certainly not counting on it. Hedging my bets on the AZ/NV/WI/MI route now!

Man, if Biden wins AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, and GA, my prediction would only be one state off (NC), even though I got almost everything else completely wrong about the election. Surprise

Me too.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2020, 07:52:40 AM »
I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2020, 07:58:49 AM »
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on November 04, 2020, 07:56:16 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 04, 2020, 07:52:40 AM
I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,195
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2020, 08:21:02 AM »
Why did Deborah Jackson receive 7% in the GA-Sen. special ?

No pollster had her even at 1% ...
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