2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

Are we seriously gonna go 48 hours+ with no new calls!?

Nevada should be a call as most ballots are in Clark but we got sloths counting votes so well wait

We ?

You are Canadian ...

[Tender Branson]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

[Tender Branson]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Pretty sure isn’t kosher either.

Yeah, as if the FEC would care if I transfer 20€ to the US and some US citizen then donates (in his/her name !) to the GA campaigns ...

[Tender Branson]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Our own Antonio V once had to get a refund from the Sanders 2016 campaign after he unwittingly violated this law.

He’s a foreigner and not a US citizen.

[Tender Branson]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Pretty sure isn’t kosher either.

Yeah, as if the FEC would care if I transfer 20€ to the US and some US citizen then donates (in his/her name !) to the GA campaigns ...

...

Yes. The FEC cares about illegal campaign contributions. That's literally their job.

I’m not familiar with campaign finance laws in the US.

Is there a section somewhere that explicitly bans foreigners to transfer small amounts of money to a US citizen, who then donates it to a campaign ?

As long as it’s not large sums or a concentrated large amount of foreigners doing so, it could be ok.

For example, there could be a US exchange student in Austria who’s a fan of the Warnock campaign and I’d like to contribute because the student is a friend of mine.

I give the friend 20€ and back in the US he donates it.

[Tender Branson]

Is this sh*t still going on ?

I hoped CNN calls it for Biden overnight.

There is no fukking chance Trump can still win this, based on votes left.

He can only bully his way to another term, but in this case the American people or the military need to drag him out of the WH by his nuts ...

[Tender Branson]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

[Tender Branson]

There are more than 14k provisional ballots left in GA.

Trump has won the 2.200 that were counted so far by a 59-40 margin.

I'm really starting to feel like this race might not be called until december

From what I understand, those provisional ballots counted so far are from rural counties.

So the remaining ones should be pro Biden, but I don’t know really.

Also, nobody knows how many overseas/military ballots are left.

8.000 were requested, but most probably came back and were already counted.

[Tender Branson]

I have to say I totally underestimated after election day how many "naked" ballots, provisional ballots or simply ballots without a signature might remain in PA ...

People first estimated that Biden would win by 100k in the end, but it's more likely he'll win by 40-60k or something now, because of all the invalid ballots that they have to throw out.

[Tender Branson]

Some calculations:

For Biden to reach 80 million votes, the turnout needs to be anywhere between 155-159 million and Biden needs to get 51.0-51.5%

Currently, there are 148 million votes and CA has ca. 3.5 million left.

Biden could net 2.5 million out of CA, which brings him to 77.5 million.

Maybe 0.5 million in IL and NY ?

78.5 million.

I think 80 million is still doable with what is left.

[Tender Branson]

CA's remaining 3.8 million ballots alone will increase Biden's percentage from 50.7% to 51.2%, while Trump falls from 47.6% to 47.1%

There's about 8 million ballots left in total (IL, NY, WA, CO, OR etc.)

A final margin of 51.5-46.8 (Biden +4.7%) looks likely.

Biden could barely cross 80 million votes in this scenario.

[Tender Branson]

CA's remaining 3.8 million ballots alone will increase Biden's percentage from 50.7% to 51.2%, while Trump falls from 47.6% to 47.1%

There's about 8 million ballots left in total (IL, NY, WA, CO, OR etc.)

A final margin of 51.5-46.8 (Biden +4.7%) looks likely.

Biden could barely cross 80 million votes in this scenario.

Yeah, I have been saying for a while that this looked like a Biden +4.5 result without actually running any numbers, so this looks right to me intuitively.

CA's remaining ballots are more likely to resemble the general electorate this year though, so no ridiculously high margins above 70% for Biden this time ...

Therefore, the national margin should probably be closer to 4% in the end, not 5%.

[Tender Branson]

Added a few corrections:

"Liberals want to evict a degenerated, elderly, mentally-challenged, financially-troubled Covid-survivor, corrupt cult-leader and his family from inner-city public housing."

[Tender Branson]

An Austrian "Standard" newspaper journalist just posted on the live-stream for the US election:

"Slightly after 8am in the morning, a bright light went on at the White House. At least that of a smartphone display."

... followed by a stupid Trump tweet about voter fraud.

[Tender Branson]

LOL:

https://twitter.com/Jasonmjarrett/status/1325083311698481153

[Tender Branson]

What's left in Maricopa and the other counties now ?

[Tender Branson]

PA should finish off Trump now.

Then Biden can lose AZ by 1000 votes, I can win my 500€ out of the 240-268 Trump EV bet and everything's OK (even Kelly wins the Senate seat).

[Tender Branson]

Eh, guys, if 116.000 ballots are left AZ-wide and Trump just netted 7.5k out of a 48.5k dump, that means he's on track to net 18k out of the remaining.

The current Biden lead is 20k and outside Maricopa, the state is more Trump-leaning ...

This will go down the wire.

[Tender Branson]

CNN CALLS PA AND THE ELECTION!

YESSS !!!

[Tender Branson]

Eh, guys, if 116.000 ballots are left AZ-wide and Trump just netted 7.5k out of a 48.5k dump, that means he's on track to net 18k out of the remaining.

The current Biden lead is 20k and outside Maricopa, the state is more Trump-leaning ...

This will go down the wire.

Tender, I hope you will understand why giving your non-stop lucre addled do my resume over the past weeks that no one takes your posts with any credibility whatsoever.

I don't really care what you think.

I want

A) that Biden wins the Presidency (looking very good now with the CNN call)
B) and I want my 1.000€ from various bets and for this, it would need a Trump AZ win

[Tender Branson]

Hereby, I congratulate the US President-elect Joe Biden and VP-elect Kamala Harris on behalf of all Austrians.

[Tender Branson]

has anyone explained why they called it?

Why need an explanation ?

All that's left in PA leans 70%+ Biden.

[Tender Branson]

vvv

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Chancellor:

https://twitter.com/sebastiankurz/status/1325136618219470848

[Tender Branson]

Guys, do not forget that Trump still has the nuclear codes.

He could still saw off a finger from Pence, get his codes somehow and nuke Washington to prevent Biden from becoming President.

It’s something Cartman would do in South Park.