2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 631203 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #100 on: November 05, 2020, 12:00:20 PM »
Quote from: Trends are MORE than real on November 05, 2020, 11:58:29 AM

I've been moderated for sharing my thoughts on Tender as a person in the past, so I'm going to demur here.

Good or bad thoughts ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #101 on: November 05, 2020, 12:06:49 PM »
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on November 05, 2020, 12:03:41 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 11:58:59 AM

Because I have a 50€ bet on William Hill, in which I would win 450€ if Trump ends somewhere between 240 and 268 EV.

If he wins both states, Trump drops below 240 EV ...

Nobody cares about your gambling!  God!

It's like coming on this thread to talk about your fantasy football team.  Except its worse because the rest of us have a very real, personal stake in the outcome of this election, and you're just hoping for things to happen so you can win a couple hundred euros.

I also have a very real personal stake in the outcome of this election.

I want Biden to win (just not in GA or AZ) and I want the money.

Take your outrage elsewhere plz guys.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #102 on: November 05, 2020, 12:09:19 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:07:14 PM

A non-American betting money on a US election and hoping the fascist wins is kind of disgusting. Literally hoping to profit off of other people's suffering.

I think you got something wrong here.

I bet 50€ on Trump winning 240-268 EV, because it had very good odds.

That means Trump loses the election ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #103 on: November 05, 2020, 12:15:13 PM »

NV is ok.

Biden should just lose one of GA or AZ by 100 votes or so ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #104 on: November 05, 2020, 12:19:45 PM »
Quote from: Trends are MORE than real on November 05, 2020, 12:17:18 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 12:15:13 PM

NV is ok.

Biden should just lose one of GA or AZ by 100 votes or so ...

No he absolutely should not you lucre-addled hobgoblin.

That’s pretty mean.

Mods, please ban.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #105 on: November 05, 2020, 01:54:47 PM »
Anything new ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #106 on: November 05, 2020, 01:58:32 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2020, 01:55:17 PM
Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

What are the chances that the overseas military ballots turn the small margin around again, so that Trump wins it ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #107 on: November 05, 2020, 02:04:52 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on November 05, 2020, 02:00:17 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 01:58:32 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 05, 2020, 01:55:17 PM
Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

What are the chances that the overseas military ballots turn the small margin around again, so that Trump wins it ?

Just accept that you lost your bet.

All votes must be counted.

Losing that bet (Trump ends between 240-268EV) would mean missing 450€ !

But I have won another 450€ bet, by predicting Biden wins the election by losing FL and OH and a few smaller ones for 100€.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #108 on: November 05, 2020, 04:13:23 PM »
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #109 on: November 06, 2020, 12:27:07 AM »
7am and Biden has still not pulled ahead in PA ?

A bit disappointing, but I actually thought it would happen today rather than yesterday ...

GA is really close, maybe it will stay Trump.

What’s left to count ? 5k votes and a few military ballots ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #110 on: November 06, 2020, 12:34:37 AM »
Turnout:

145.5 million, which is ca. 147 million total ballots counted.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #111 on: November 06, 2020, 01:17:53 AM »
Quote from: Stockdale for Veep on November 06, 2020, 01:16:22 AM
Happy Friday!

The GA-PA death march is reaching critical mass.



If they’d count another week, it would be Friday the 13th.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #112 on: November 06, 2020, 04:18:02 AM »
ME, MN and IA are battling it out for highest turnout.

All 3 are at around 79% (estimated) of their VEP (voting-eligible population).

Final rates can only be calculated in January or February, when the 2020 census results are out.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #113 on: November 06, 2020, 04:22:04 AM »
Quote from: Frank on November 06, 2020, 04:20:08 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 06, 2020, 04:18:02 AM
ME, MN and IA are battling it out for highest turnout.

All 3 are at around 79% (estimated) of their VEP (voting-eligible population).

Final rates can only be calculated in January or February, when the 2020 census results are out.

Hardly.  According to Republicans, Wisconsin had a higher than 100% turnout.

WI is @ 76%.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #114 on: November 06, 2020, 04:30:10 AM »
Quote from: Horus on November 06, 2020, 04:28:19 AM
This is surreal. I'm so proud of my state.

Congrats !

(... even if it probably means I won't get 500€ more in betting money because Trump won't finish at 240-268 EV. But there's still AZ.)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #115 on: November 06, 2020, 04:57:10 AM »
The comment section in the Austrian newspaper "Standard" goes nuts after Biden takes the lead in GA, with over 1000 likes (and 9 people who misclicked on dislike) in 20 minutes:



Link
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #116 on: November 06, 2020, 05:06:06 AM »
Time for PA to come out with the final dumps and the KISS of DEATH for Trump.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #117 on: November 06, 2020, 05:07:39 AM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 06, 2020, 05:07:11 AM
Is Georgia the only Confederate state to go Biden?

Wasn't VA also a Confederate one ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #118 on: November 06, 2020, 07:43:31 AM »
Quote from: White Cloud on November 06, 2020, 07:42:39 AM
Just here to remind everyone that a 269-269 tie remains a possibility.

It would happen if:

Trump takes PA, NV, AZ, and ME-02.

Biden takes GA and NE-02.

Trump doesn’t take PA.

It’s over later today.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #119 on: November 06, 2020, 08:28:55 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2020, 08:23:58 AM
CNN: Philly will dump 20K votes in 10-15 minutes.

Needs to be ca. 95%-5% for Biden so he can pull ahead.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #120 on: November 06, 2020, 10:11:18 AM »
Why is PA not called yet ?

Biden is ahead now.

There are only 50-100k additional postal ballots left (= heavy Biden).

There are only some Election Day precincts from Philly left which are not counted.

There are only a few thousand more mail ballots coming in today.

No chance of a gain for Trump in any of those ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #121 on: November 06, 2020, 10:57:33 AM »
Maricopa County, AZ will have 2 major vote dumps today.

One in 2 minutes, the other at 7pm local time.

Maybe 50k in each.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #122 on: November 06, 2020, 11:03:04 AM »
Trump gains 4.000 votes from the latest Maricopa update.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #123 on: November 06, 2020, 02:16:47 PM »
Philly is America’s Hodor:
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #124 on: November 06, 2020, 02:35:39 PM »
Livestream of US vote count:
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