The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

The biggest surprise so far is Mississippi:

It trailed the final US-wide response rate by a lot in 2010, but is now far ahead of the US average.

[Tender Branson]

Can anyone give a proper explanation why the final mail participation rate from 2010, which was 74%, was re-calculated down to 66.5% in the current 2020 response map ?

The only explanation I can come up with is that the number of households in the US went up during the past 10 years, from 125 to 135 million, so the new base of 135 million would be used as a starting point and the final responses from 2010 were re-calculated as a share of it.

Anyway, no matter if we use the original 74% or the re-calculated 66.5% from 2010, it looks as if 2020 returns will top both.

[Tender Branson]

The coronavirus should not stop the US census

Gillian Tett

Last week an envelope dropped through my front door marked “Census 2020” and “Your Response Is Required By Law”. In normal circumstances, I might have chucked it on to my pile of bills and ignored it until the last minute. But now I am trapped at home. So I opened the envelope, went online to complete the survey — and then felt a twinge of moral satisfaction, not just because I had ticked a job off my “to do” list, but for two bigger reasons as well.

One is the fact that we all need to find ways to uphold civil society and democracy right now — and in the US (like most other countries), the census is a cornerstone of this. So much so, in fact, that the Founding Fathers embedded the census into the constitution and it has been conducted every 10 years since, irrespective of domestic strife or economic depression. The only time that Congress has rejected its results was in 1920, when politicians refused to believe the tally of urban immigrants (in 1930, Congress also insisted that the unemployment count was redone).

Of course, some might argue that there is a case to delay the 2020 census, given the extraordinary current circumstances. Perhaps so. Normally, the schedule for the census mandates that households should return their forms, voluntarily, by April 1. Fieldworkers then do house-to-house calls to chase up non-respondents until late July. The latter is clearly impossible to organise right now.

But the fact that the census can be completed online at home should make it possible to finish the voluntary submissions; and even if fieldworker visits need to be delayed, it would be a grave mistake to use the coronavirus to scrap the 2020 census or delay it indefinitely. After all, it is not just an administrative task; it is a crucial process in enabling government to allocate resources fairly (and manage voting procedures accurately).

https://www.ft.com/content/ba8a9e0a-6e2b-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

[Tender Branson]

Homeless and has given up on society.

Homeless are especially hard to count. Here's why:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/26/california-homeless-census-2020-coronavirus

Yet it would be very important if they got counted, because of the additional funds a town would get.

[Tender Branson]

Daily response rate update:

28.1% (+1.9)

Wisconsin first (35.0%)

Alaska dead last (16.2%)

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[Tender Branson]

Vice Presidential candidate Abrams on the 2020 Census:

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1243202373037649921

[Tender Branson]

Cardi B calls on New Yorkers to fill out the census

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/489784-cardi-b-calls-on-new-yorkers-to-fill-out-the-census

[Tender Branson]

Daily response rate update:

30.2% (+2.1)

Wisconsin first (37.4%)

Alaska last (17.6%)

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[Tender Branson]

WV is already pretty bad, but McDowell County has a 0.5% response rate so far.

Are there even any people left, or just abandoned housing units ?

I guess most of WV doesn’t have internet either to get counted.

[Tender Branson]

WV is already pretty bad, but McDowell County has a 0.5% response rate so far.

Are there even any people left, or just abandoned housing units ?

I guess most of WV doesn’t have internet either to get counted.

Or they don't have home mail delivery. About 95.4% of housing units are being contacted by self-response, where an invitation is sent to a residence (not a resident). The resident can respond by internet, or request a phone call or paper form. In some cases, the initial invitation will include a paper form. This is used in areas with low internet access, or language or other issues (the paper form is bilingual English-Spanish, double sided with English on one side, and Spanish on the other.

In about 4.5% of the housing units (around 5.9 million) update-leave is used. In this method, primarily for housing units where mail delivery is not to the location of the housing unit. a census enumerator leaves a form as well as an invitation to use the internet.

But you will see that this type of enumeration has been delayed due to COVID-19.

2020 Census Operational Adjustments Due to COVID-19

Originally scheduled from March 15-April 17, it has been delayed from March 29-May 1.

Even under the best of circumstances, only about 13/34 of households would have been contacted. Because of the delay, none have. A person can respond online, by entering their address - but realistically how many people would know about that? TV or radio stations might not mention that "some" listeners won't be getting forms on schedule, particularly since they might not have gotten it by now anyhow. The Welch News is quite small, and the county government is only open for emergencies. Perhaps the library is closed.

This app shows the different Type of Enumeration Areas (TEAS). If you zoom in far enough, you can see the percentage of housing units in each census tract that utilize update-leave. McDowell County is the southernmost county in West Virginia.

2020 Census: Type of Enumeration Area (TEA) Viewer

I estimate only 0.4% of housing units got an invitation by mail. Based on households/housing units about 31% of housing units are vacant. Remembe McDowell has lost 80% of its post-WWII population. Even assuming that households are 1/2 the size of then (4.6 vs 2.3 persons/household), the number of households (and therefore need for housing has declined by 60%). You can take about 42% of housing units out of service, and still have 31% vacancy.

Thanks,

but why are these households not getting mail in the first place ?

Isn’t US mail supposed to deliver in all places - except in overly rural areas such as Alaska or Wyoming ?

McDowell County is very poor, but not exactly „very rural“, so I don’t understand why 99.5% of households there get no mail, not even once a week ...

I also read on Census Bureau’s „Quick Facts“ that 65% of county households indeed have Internet access, so the response rate should be higher.

But if they got no mail invitations in the 1st place ... not.

[Tender Branson]

WV is already pretty bad, but McDowell County has a 0.5% response rate so far.

Are there even any people left, or just abandoned housing units ?

I guess most of WV doesn’t have internet either to get counted.

In about 4.5% of the housing units (around 5.9 million) update-leave is used. In this method, primarily for housing units where mail delivery is not to the location of the housing unit. a census enumerator leaves a form as well as an invitation to use the internet.

But you will see that this type of enumeration has been delayed due to COVID-19.

2020 Census Operational Adjustments Due to COVID-19

Originally scheduled from March 15-April 17, it has been delayed from March 29-May 1.

Even under the best of circumstances, only about 13/34 of households would have been contacted. Because of the delay, none have. A person can respond online, by entering their address - but realistically how many people would know about that? TV or radio stations might not mention that "some" listeners won't be getting forms on schedule, particularly since they might not have gotten it by now anyhow. The Welch News is quite small, and the county government is only open for emergencies. Perhaps the library is closed.

They should not have delayed that specific update-leave operation IMO:

If it’s just about leaving an invitation letter or paper questionnaires at a household, they can drive around from one house to another and drop off the materials there in the mailbox or on the porch - without having any contact with people, spreading the virus.

The same is true for later census taking: the 0.5 million census takers need to wear gloves and masks and keep 6 feet distance with the interviewed person and everyone’s OK.

Completely suspending the followup interviews would do incredible damage to the whole 2020 Census, because it would increase the polarization further: well-off households respond and get counted, urban/rural poor households, inner-city migrant areas & homeless are not.

[Tender Branson]

Mississippi and Michigan are the top-responders so far, compared to their final 2010 rates.

In both states, more than 52% of their final 2010 rate is already in:

MS: 32.1 of 61.3 (= 52.4%)
MI: 35.2 of 67.7 (= 52.0%)

At the bottom:

WV: 20.6 of 59.1 (= 34.9%)
AK: 17.6 of 55.6 (= 31.7%)

I'm keeping a daily table to watch for changes.

[Tender Branson]

Daily response rate update:

30.2% (+2.1)

Wisconsin first (37.4%)

Alaska last (17.6%)

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Today: 31.6% (+1.4)

Today is also the comparable start date for the 2010 response map.

It started with 16%, the 2020 rate so far is twice as high.

[Tender Branson]

Most of WV is classified as an UPDATE/LEAVE area - which explains the low response in the Southern part.

It also explains the lagging rates in AK, MT, WY, NM and the Latino parts of TX.

It would be pretty bad if those regions were not visited by census takers because of the virus.

On the other hand, it is compensated by a higher response rate in other areas.

(Right-click for huge map)

[Tender Branson]

Is it theoretically possible to delay the finalization/presentation of the 2020 results to 2021, so that census takers can visit non-responding or rural households during the fall and the data then gets finalized during winter/spring next year ?

Usually, the results need to be made available by December 31 of the Census year ...

[Tender Branson]

Daily Response Rate Update:

33.1% (+1.5)

Top:

40.8% Wisconsin

Bottom:

19.7% Alaska

Among the big states, TX and NY are trailing the national rate by 5%. NC by 3.

All other big states are roughly in line with national response rates (or higher).

🇺🇸 USA 🇺🇸 wide, the response rate is ca. twice as high (!) right now, compared with the same time in 2010.

Also, half the 66.5% nationwide rate is now already in.

[Tender Branson]

If the trend keeps up, 2/3 of households in the US will have submitted their data by the end of April, passing the final 2010 rate.

But households still have until the end of May to respond.

Current trends indicate a 80-85% response among US households (up by 13 to 18 points compared with 2010) - which would be an all-time record.

[Tender Branson]

Daily Response Rate Update:

34.7% (+1.6)

Top:

42.7% Wisconsin

Bottom:

20.8% Alaska

[Tender Branson]

Daily Response Rate Update:

34.7% (+1.6)

Top:

42.7% Wisconsin

Bottom:

20.8% Alaska

4 WI counties are already at 51%+ response and are now shaded blue on the county map.

3 of them are in the Milwaukee suburbs.

Also, 1 in IA and 1 in NE are blue now - but surprisingly none yet in MN.

[Tender Branson]

Daily update:

36.2% (+1.5)

My guess for tomorrow is 38% for the data submitted until end-March (there could be a final rush before reference date April 1, printed on the letters).

That would put the rate on track for 70% by the end of April.

And 75%+ by end-May.

[Tender Branson]

What is the most likely scenario after May, when the online/mail/phone response dries up and around 75% of households have responded ?

Will the Census Bureau just wait until the Coronavirus is over in the US by September/October and only then send out their census takers for the non-response households ?

Will they do earlier in June/July, but with protection gear ?

Will they send additional mail reminders in June, July and August - that were previously not planned ?

Will they try calling non-responding households ? But where do they get the phone numbers from ?

More TV ads ? More digital ads ?

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the map above, I find it fairly interesting that both Iowa and Tennessee (large, rural states) are almost completely shaded blue - indicating almost 100% US-mail coverage and almost no yellow update/leave areas.

Even in Appalachian Tennessee virtually every household gets served by the US postal service.

[Tender Branson]

Daily update:

36.2% (+1.5)

My guess for tomorrow is 38% for the data submitted until end-March (there could be a final rush before reference date April 1, printed on the letters).

That would put the rate on track for 70% by the end of April.

And 75%+ by end-May.

13 counties (or independent cities) are now over 50%.

6 in Wisconsin. Wow!
3 in Iowa
1 in Illinois
1 in Nebraska
1 in Virginia (Fairfax City)
1 in New Mexico (Los Alamos)

Best areas are in the Midwest, areas with a strong tech sector, and suburban counties.

Also:

Idaho, which had a comparable return rate to the US as a whole in 2010, is now responding 4% above the US average.

I think that is significant (the same in Mississippi), because until recently ID was more known to be a government-hostile rightwing retreat.

[Tender Branson]

It's Census Day. Here's what you need to know about the 2020 count

(CNN) - Households across the United States have been receiving invitations to complete the 2020 census for weeks. But another milestone in the count is here.

April 1 is known as Census Day.

And around the country, local officials are encouraging residents to complete census questionnaires this week.

"Lots of people are home right now, as you should be. But the truth is, it's also a great time to fill out your census," Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a video message.

The results of the 2020 census will impact the lives of people around the country. And everyone living in the US plays a role in shaping them.

Here are some key things you need to know:

(...)

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/census-2020-things-to-know/index.html

[Tender Branson]

Daily response map update (data submitted until yesterday, end-March):

38.4% (+2.2)

TOP:

46.4% Minnesota & Wisconsin (for the first time, MN is ranked 1st)

BOTTOM:

23.6% Alaska

---

TX and NY are still lagging the nation by 5%, while other big states such as CA and FL are just a small amount behind the nation. IL, OH, PA, MI, VA are all ahead of the nation.

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html