The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

Well few people end up really seeing those funds anyways.  California Dems don't give a sh*t about republicans so it is the only recourse to hurt them.  

As I've said: the 10-year census should not be political. It's only in the US (and a few other countries) where it's extremely political. It's not about hurting this party, or that party.

And yes, people are seeing those funds for themselves. Maybe not directly, but in the form of more or less funding for schools, roads, etc. in their community. So it would be best if everyone takes part to ensure that funds are accordingly distributed along the actual population numbers in each town.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

Nebraska has the highest initial response rate with almost 20%.

The Midwest has the best rates so far, but also Idaho and Nevada.

[Tender Branson]

Alaska has the lowest initial response rate so far (7.6%), but it was also the worst in 2010 - so no surprise.

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Not surprising: The new online option is by far the most preferred so far.

[Tender Branson]

I would even say that the 2020 Census is off to a better start than the 2010 one.

14% have already submitted their forms and there's still one week to go until the comparable 16% initial response for 2010.

I would assume that by next Friday, about 25% will have responded - which would be 9% higher than at the same point 10 years ago.

Obviously, the trend has to continue in the coming months.

[Tender Branson]

The good thing:

So far, a ton of Americans are responding to the Census online, by mail or by phone.

The bad thing:

Coronavirus.

But the Census Bureau is adjusting to that threat.

From the AP:

https://apnews.com/a236220eeeef37cf76258d7a9f0dcaff

[Tender Branson]

The next update should come by 3pm Eastern.

Considering 5 million households are currently submitting their census forms each day, that would increase the percentage who respond by about 4% each day.

So, the update today should show roughly a 18-19% response.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

The map has just been updated with data submitted until yesterday.

More than 16% of US households have now responded.

That is already more than in 2010 - a week earlier.

Very good start.

People spending time at home right now might actually be good for Census „turnout“.

Nebraska continues to have the best response rate at 22%, while TX, NY, the Carolinas and GA are lagging.

[Tender Branson]

Did mine online today and agree with the comments that it was super easy.  I've done the ACS (American Community Survey) census before (the one that's used for employment and many other statistics) and it was much more extensive than the general one.

The ACS is done annually and replaced the „long form“ of the old 10-year Census (after 2000). It is only completed by a small sample of the US population though.

That’s why the current 2020 Census only has a few basic questions anymore that can be answered in 5 minutes.

The more Americans fill it out online, by mail or by phone in the next 2 months - the fewer census takers will be needed to be deployed in this difficult environment.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

The map is now online.

14% of US households have already responded as of yesterday.

That is a very good start.

It was 16% in 2010, with a week headstart compared to now.

The map has just been updated with data submitted until yesterday.

More than 16% of US households have now responded.

That is already more than in 2010 - a week earlier.

Very good start.

People spending time at home right now might actually be good for Census „turnout“.

Nebraska continues to have the best response rate at 22%, while TX, NY, the Carolinas and GA are lagging.

The numbers are not comparable to 2010, though they may be at this point. In 2010, the participation rate was measured, while in 2020 it is the initial response rate.

Mail response may be difficult. I have drive to about a mile-and-a-half to find a mail box. In addition since they have to include an instruction book may increase the apparent complexity.

Presentation of one person at a time may also help response. The person completing the form fills out some basic information, including a list of household members.

Then the form is presented for each individual. Items included are name, age, sex, ethnicity (Hispanic or not), and race (White, Black, Asian, AIAN, NHOPI, and other). Instead of thinking about filling out 6 pages, you will already have done one and decided it was not too difficult.

In addition, the printed form is bilingual, which may be off-putting to some people.

2020 Census Printed Form (PDF)

German instructions (PDF)

Is there anything that would be confusing in translation?

How may responses will there be of German, Deutsch, Duitser, Allemand, hogy német, немец, or Němec?

It will be interesting to see what the response to the race questions are. White and Black are presented as check boxes, plus a fill-in-the blank.

It looks like the intent is to isolate MENA, since Egyptian and Lebanese are given as examples, and Iranian and Chaldean are given as extended examples. White is described in more ethnic terms: originating in Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa.

In addition, Haitian, Nigerian, etc. can indicate a distinction from African Americans. Previously, this distinction could only be made based on ACS Ancestry, and some African Americans would indicate African.

If a college has closed its dorms for the remainder of the semester, where do students live on April 1, 2020?

Yeah, in 2010 the final participation rate was 76%.

The Census Bureau re-calculated the 2010 final response rate though to 66.5% - to make it comparable with 2020 numbers.

So, if the 2010 map started with 16% out of a total 76% then (with a week headstart !), yesterday’s 16.7% are still FAR ahead of 2010 levels.

2020 response is off to a very good start.

As for college kids not living in their dorms on April 1 (or now): I think their parents should count them as „living at home“.

[Tender Branson]

It’s weekend and more people are filling things out, so theoretically the response rate should jump above 20% with today’s and tomorrow’s updates.

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/response-rate-first-week.html

Even if people are not responding based on the 1st letter they got this week, the Census Bureau will send 5 (!) repeat letters in the coming weeks/months to remind them ...

[Tender Branson]

I did it a couple days ago.

What does everyone think of the questions?

I'm glad there were multiple racial/ethnic options. Was anything excluded that should not have been?

I hope in 2030 there is non-binary option for gender.

Yeah, there should be a 3rd gender option IMO.

Did the form ask for gay marriage too, or was that skipped as well (can’t remember) ?

Besides, asking racial data seems a bit outdated in 2020 and they might have removed that - just like they did with religion.

Citizenship would have been interesting though.

[Tender Branson]

Angry Bernie sis:

https://twitter.com/paladinette/status/1241664202634338310

Anyway, it shouldn’t be political, but the worst thing for Democrats and the young and the minorities would be not to participate. It would skew funding and electoral chances against them.

[Tender Branson]

Today's update (with data submitted until yesterday):

USA: 19.2% response rate (+2.5)

Top-5 states:

25.1% NE
24.3% IA
24.3% WI
23.5% KS
23.3% MN

Bottom-5 states:

14.5% WY
14.3% NM
13.9% MT
13.5% WV
10.3% AK

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[Tender Branson]

In the latest update, the population-rich states have different performances so far:

CA and FL residents are responding similarly to the US as a whole.

TX, NY, GA, NC and NJ are lagging behind the national response rate.

IL, PA, OH, MI and VA are outperforming the national rate.

[Tender Branson]

My mother told me she's decided not to respond to the Census at all. Sigh.

Why ?

Is she also one of the types who’s awaiting the census takers with her shotgun when they appear at her door in a few months ?

[Tender Branson]

My mother told me she's decided not to respond to the Census at all. Sigh.

Why ?

Is she also one of the types who’s awaiting the census takers with her shotgun when they appear at her door in a few months ?

Same reason she's not a registered voter: she's homeless and has given up on society.

Sorry, that’s not good. I thought she’s a government-hostile Republican gun owner.

Tell her all the best from me.

[Tender Branson]

Daily response map update (data submitted through Sunday, 22 March):

21.0% (ca. 30 million out of 135 million US households)

Highest:

27.5% Nebraska

Lowest:

11.3% Alaska

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[Tender Branson]

Audubon County, Iowa is the first county in the US so far to pass the 40% response rate level.

[Tender Branson]

The response rate update this coming Saturday (with data submitted until Friday, March 27) will be key:

If the trend continues (+1.4% to 2.0% each day, x5), the response rate by then would be somewhere between 28% and 31%.

The Saturday date is key, because it marks 1 week since the last initial invitation letters went out to US households (= last Friday).

In 2010, the last day those initial invitation letters went out was March 17, 2010 and the response rate map went online a week later on March 24 with 16%.

Therefore, early 2020 response could be almost double of what it was 10 years ago ...

(The emphasis is on „early“, because people could just respond early and then there’s a drop off.)

[Tender Branson]

Based on this chart from 2010, the response rate should jump to 60-70% in a matter of 2-3 weeks:



According to the chart, 60% was hit on April 6, 2010.

The comparable date this year would be after April 10.

[Tender Branson]

Even if 80% of American households would respond online/by mail/phone this year (which would be a record) - it would leave 20% (or 27 million of the 135 million households) left to be counted by census takers.

Here is how Coronavirus complicates this:

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-crisis-complicates-in-person-census-outreach

27 million households. That’s ca. 50 households to visit and survey for each of the 500.000 temporary census takers. Plus tens of thousands of homeless people.

[Tender Branson]

Daily response rate update:

The rate jumped a massive 2.6% to 23.6%, with forms submitted until yesterday.

Nebraska and Wisconsin are already above 30%, MN and IA just below.

Alaska dead last.

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[Tender Branson]

Daily response rate update:

The rate again jumped by a massive 2.6% to 26.2%, with forms submitted until yesterday.

Wisconsin now has surpassed Nebraska as the state with the highest response rate at 32.9%, but NE, IA and MN are all close behind.

Alaska dead last.

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[Tender Branson]

The response rate is currently twice as high as during the comparable time in 2010 ...

Based on current trends, 80%+ is doable, which would be an absolute record.