🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Tender Branson]

Will post pictures of Sen. Cruz and Gov. Abbott being sworn in again here because Bayern and Texas were so similar this year politically: Greens/Beto/Dems gaining a lot but failing narrowly to topple the incumbents.

[Tender Branson]

New INSA poll for the Thüringen state election next year:



Current government there is Left-SPD-Greens, which would have no majority any longer (46-51) - because the FDP gets back in.

[Tender Branson]

I find statewide to be a confusing term in this thread title. Maybe change it to regional? I feel state is a poor translation of Bundesland.

State is the correct term.

Region is only used for certain parts like the Schwarzwald or something.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Is there already a result on the 15 or so constitutional referendums in Hessen ?

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Is there already a result on the 15 or so constitutional referendums in Hessen ?

Not yet, but expected to be published tomorrow. Hope the SPD overtakes the Greens and a traffic light coalition will be formed.

I‘m most interested in the death penalty and commitment to European values results ...

[Tender Branson]

Following the October state election, coalition talks in Hessen have come to a conclusion between CDU-Greens and a 200-page coalition contract was signed.

This means CDU-Greens can renew their coalition for another term.

They only have a 69-68 seat majority in Hessen's state parliament.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-und-gruene-in-hessen-so-will-die-naechste-schwarz-gruene-regierung-arbeiten-a-1245277.html

[Tender Branson]

Here is the current composition of the 16 German state governments:



The numbers indicate how many seats each state has in the 2nd chamer of parliament - the Bundesrat, which represents the states at the federal level.

[Tender Branson]

2019 will have 4 state elections - of which 3 are in Eastern Germany:

* Bremen (a city-state made up of 2 cities) will vote first on May 26th - together with the EU elections. Bremen is a traditional SPD stronghold, but even there the SPD has completely eroded and in polls is now tied with the CDU there and the Greens could also take part in the fight for 1st place.

* Sachsen and Brandenburg will vote on September 1. In Sachsen, the CDU has eroded as well, while the AfD has gained significantly and now has at least a 1/4 of support in the polls. The CDU is still expected to win with around 30% - but the AfD has shown that they can beat the CDU in the federal election, by coming in first. Brandenburg and also Thüringen (which votes on Oct. 27) will see a huge battle for first places - between SPD, CDU and AfD. Brandenburg was an easy SPD-win back in 2014, while Thüringen was an easy CDU win - but both parties collapsed over the past few years.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern poll (look at the SPD, lol):

[Tender Branson]

When do polls close in Görlitz today ?

6pm ?

[Tender Branson]

There is a very notable mayoral election in Saxony that has spread as far afield as Hollywood:

The 56,500 inhabitants of the Saxon city of Görlitz, directly adjacent to Poland, were called upon to elect a successor to independent Mayor Siegfried Deinege on May 26.
Here are the results:

Sebastian Wippel (AfD): 36.4%
Octavian Ursu (CDU): 30.3%
Franziska Schubert (Greens): 27.9%
Jana Lübeck (Left): 5.5%
(voter turnout: 58.6%)

As no candidate received a majority, there will be a run-off on June 16.
So far, so good. If Görlitz wasn't a popular film shooting location for Hollywood productions...
Movie producer Michael Simon de Normier, who co-produced The Reader, starring Kate Winslet, who won an Oscar, a Golden Globe, and a BAFTA Award for her role as Hanna Schmitz, is planning on cinematizing a Beethoven biography in Görlitz in 2020. Dreading the prospect of an AfD mayor creating a climate of intolerance and xenophobia, he launched an urgent appeal for open-mindedness and to not vote for Wippel. Movies such as The Reader, Inglourious Basterds, Around the World in 80 Days, or The Grand Budapest Hotel were shot in front of the magnificent backdrop of Görlitz' history-charged old town, which is why the city is "Görliwood" by film geeks. De Normier is dreading that filmmakers might abandon Görlitz if Wippel becomes the mayor of that city. 33 celebrities have singed his public appeal so far, among them also British three-time Oscar nominated director Stephen Daldry.

So here is my prediction for the Görlitz mayoral runoff then:

61.3% Ursu (CDU)
38.7% Wippel (AfD)

Görlitz does not become Wels, a similar-sized Austrian city (the only one with more than 30.000 people with a blue mayor).

[Tender Branson]

That's no real damage though ...

The AfD will win quite a few direct seats in Saxony this year (probably around 20-30 of them), which can be supplemented even with the smaller number of 18 list candidates.

And they can use this decision to shore up their voters, because they can spin it as a conspiracy theory against the AfD by the "hostile" election commission ...

[Tender Branson]

Approval ratings of current governors:



Brandenburg, Thüringen and Sachsen have state elections coming up.

[Tender Branson]

That's no real damage though ...

The AfD will win quite a few direct seats in Saxony this year (probably around 20-30 of them), which can be supplemented even with the smaller number of 18 list candidates.

And they can use this decision to shore up their voters, because they can spin it as a conspiracy theory against the AfD by the "hostile" election commission ...

The Federal Constitutional Court has rejected a Appeal by the AFD against the decision on procedural grounds . The AFD also has an Appeal before Saxonys Constitutional court, the hearing will be tomorrow.

The Saxony Supreme Court has ruled in favour of the AfD to expand their candidate list from 18 to 30, which would be a quarter of seats in parliament.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-sachsen-darf-landeswahlliste-laut-verfassungsgericht-erweitern-a-1279043.html

[Tender Branson]

An AfD/CDU government would probably have a small majority in Thüringen if the FDP stays below 5% ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll for the September 1 Brandenburg state election:

SPD: -15% (compared with the 2014 election)
CDU: -5%
Left: -5%
AfD: +9%
Greens: +10%
FW: +1%
FDP: +3%

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1159881248854237184

[Tender Branson]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

[Tender Branson]

On Sunday, 2 state elections will be held in Sachsen and Brandenburg.

New ZDF polls:

https://twitter.com/ZDFheute/status/1164776525477994496

https://twitter.com/ZDFheute/status/1164785590988136448

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Sachsen state election tomorrow:

30.4% CDU (-9.0)
26.3% AfD (+16.6)
14.0% Left (-4.9)
11.2% Greens (+5.5)
  7.9% SPD (-4.5)
  5.1% FDP (+1.3)
  2.6% FW (+1.0)
  2.5% Others (-6.0)

Turnout: 60% (+11)

My prediction for the Brandenburg state election tomorrow:

22.8% AfD (+10.6)
21.9% SPD (-10.0)
17.1% CDU (-5.9)
13.7% Greens (+7.5)
13.2% Left (-5.4)
  4.8% FDP (+3.3)
  4.3% FW (+1.6)
  2.2% Others (-1.7)

Turnout: 57% (+9)

[Tender Branson]

Examples of AfD campaign posters in Saxony:

Who's protecting us from the "refuge-seeking" ?

Better care for the best of us.

Human dignity also for Germans !

The East is rising up ! The >>peaceful revolution<< with the ballot paper.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Leipzig is twice as high as in the last state election and general election like:

https://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/landtagswahlen/landtagswahl-2019/wahlbeteiligung/

In Dresden the same:

https://www.dresden.de/de/rathaus/politik/wahlen/landtagswahl/001_wahlergebnisse.php

[Tender Branson]

More people have already voted now at noon than during the whole Election Day in 2014.

[Tender Branson]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

[Tender Branson]

After the epically low turnout in 2014, both states are heading for a 60%+ turnout today.

In Saxony, turnout is up by 13% compared with 2014 and in Brandenburg by about 10%.

In the big cities, turnout is up by more than 20% ...

Who do you think is profiting by the high turnout?
Definitely the Greens, but also other parties?

Higher turnout usually means that the result will be closer to what the polls have shown and therefore surprises are less likely.

High turnout in the cities will benefit the Greens and in the rural areas CDU and AfD of course.

We could see a very polarized urban/rural map in Saxony today.

[Tender Branson]

Until 2pm, turnout was

* 12% higher in Saxony when compared with 2014 (excluding postal ballots)
* 9% higher in Brandenburg when compared with 2014 (excluding postal ballots)

* 21% higher in Leipzig when compared with 2014 (including postal ballots)
* 24% higher in Dresden when compared with 2014 (including postal ballots)

The thing is that the state numbers do not include postal ballots in turnout estimates, while the big cities do.

In Dresden, postal ballots alone went from 16% turnout to 28% this year (+12%).

This means we could see a turnout increase for Saxony as a whole of ca. 15-20% with postal ballots compared to 2014.

65-70% turnout for Saxony is possible and some 65% for Brandenburg, up from 48-49%.