Which will have higher turnout: US midterms 2018 or EU parliament election 2019?

[Tender Branson]

The last 3 US midterms had 37% (2014), 42% (2010) and 41% (2006) turnout.

The last 3 EU elections had 43% (2014), 43% (2009) and 46% (2004) turnout.

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I think that both will end up around 40-45% this time, but hard to say where's higher turnout.

It's really low anyway. Austria had 80% turnout in the GE last year, the Netherlands and Sweden clearly over 80%.

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US midterms, there's record-breaking turnout.

No, it's not. It will just go from abysmal to slightly less abysmal this time ...

[Tender Branson]

For the US, it was ~49% of the VEP (according to Prof. McDonald's page).

For the EU it was 43% in 2014.

But the UK had only 36%, suggesting that the UK's exit will lead to higher turnout overall. Excluding the UK already in 2014 would have meant turnout was around 44-45% then.

An increase of 4-5% could be possible next year to match US turnout.

[Tender Branson]

It’s possible that the EU will beat the US today ...

It largely depends on Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.

[Tender Branson]

51%, says the EU parliament.

Higher than the 50.3% in the US ... highest in more than 2 decades.

EU wins.

[Tender Branson]

With almost everything counted:

EU: 50.5%
US: 50.3%

Let’s call it a tie.