European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Parties that are not on the EP-ballot so far can collect the 2.600 signatures that are needed between March 12 and April 12 here.

Parties that are already on the ballot: ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Now.

Currently, it is unknown which small parties even want to compete - but I guess the Communists will, maybe the Christian Party and maybe EU-STOP.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

There is no evidence of that and that is highly subjective. What if it does ? Even if there are just 5% of people out there who are making their decision based on the results of the Netherlands, which is voting on Thursday (IIRC) and already release their results then instead of Sunday night ? 5% of people voting that way could change a lot.

That's why I also favour the same publishing embargo for US elections. For example when polls close in Virginia, people in CA, OR, WA, HI and AK are still voting. If people there know that Virginia will suddenly go Republican instead of Democratic like all the time in recent decades, it will impact at least some voters in those states and they could vote differently. CA, OR, WA, HI, AK are not close states, but what if they were ? If people knew the results from the East Coast and the West Coast states were in fact close and could decide a Presidential election, there's no reason why results shouldn't be embargoed. All results should therefore be released at the same time. Better would even be if all states/countries would not even start their vote count until the last precinct has closed (to avoid leaks to the media). In the case of the US, this would mean that no state would be allowed to count their votes until HI has closed all their polls.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

There is no evidence of that and that is highly subjective. What if it does ? Even if there are just 5% of people out there who are making their decision based on the results of the Netherlands, which is voting on Thursday (IIRC) and already release their results then instead of Sunday night ? 5% of people voting that way could change a lot.

That's why I also favour the same publishing embargo for US elections. For example when polls close in Virginia, people in CA, OR, WA, HI and AK are still voting. If people there know that Virginia will suddenly go Republican instead of Democratic like all the time in recent decades, it will impact at least some voters in those states and they could vote differently. CA, OR, WA, HI, AK are not close states, but what if they were ? If people knew the results from the East Coast and the West Coast states were in fact close and could decide a Presidential election, there's no reason why results shouldn't be embargoed. All results should therefore be released at the same time. Better would even be if all states/countries would not even start their vote count until the last precinct has closed (to avoid leaks to the media). In the case of the US, this would mean that no state would be allowed to count their votes until HI has closed all their polls.

Again, it's just my opinion, but that's not the case. In the US, you have the same candidates in all 50 states+DC on the ballot and the political parties are also the same in every state, and there's no proof that California voters are influenced by early returns from Florida, for example. So, it's not a very good comparison. In the EU it's the opposite. In Ireland, Greece or France PES is almost nonexistent, in Italy or Netherlands EPP is almost nonexistent, and in Portugal, for example, ADLE is nonexistent. Therefore, the party dynamics are completely different country by country, meaning that if Austria, for example, votes massively for OVP (EPP), that will not occur, or won't effect voters, in Italy, Portugal or Netherlands. Like i said above, EP parliament elections are more aligned with the political mood in each country and European issues are very neglected during the campaign.

Maybe, but I'm still not confident that this is good logic. It might be the case that there's different strength among parties in the different countries (which is also the case in US elections), but what if for example the Dutch outfit the Far-Right with 40% (theoretically of course) in their Thursday vote ? It would certainly impact other voters in Europe when they vote on Sunday, if the Dutch result generates big waves in European media and TV outlets over the next days. So, for the benefit of the doubt I still think that the results of those countries voting earlier should be withheld or vote counting should not start until the last precinct in the EU has closed.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

Among all heads of government in the EU, Malta's PM Muscat has the biggest mandate from voters with 50% of all eligible voters in the country.

Sebastian Kurz has the 2nd-highest mandate from voters with 45.5% of eligible voters voting for his ÖVP-FPÖ government.

Funny that Spain's PM Sanchez and his government only have the backing of 14.9% of Spain's electorate.



For comparison: Donald Trump has the mandate of 27% of the US electorate (63 million votes of 231 million eligible voters).

[Tender Branson]

Bayern EU poll (GMS for Sat1 Bayern):

36% CSU (-4.5)
18% Greens (+5.9)
13% AfD (+4.9)
10% SPD (-10.1)
  8% FDP (+4.9)
  5% FW (+0.7)
  4% Left (+1.1)
  6% Others (-2.9)

Turnout: 47% (+6.1)

https://www.sat1.at/regional/bayern/waehlercheck/waehlercheck2

[Tender Branson]

It is speculated that the investigative left-wing/populist "NOW" party might present the former successful investigative and independent MEP Hans-Peter Martin as their frontrunner for the EU elections.

That would be a major coup for them if he's willing to run again.



Martin (a former SPÖ politician) retired from the European parliament in 2014, after serving 3 terms there and winning a lot of support for his own independent, investigative list in 1999, 2004 and 2009.

In the past years, he spent writing books and delivering speeches. His last book from 2018 is titled "Game Over: Wellbeing for the few, Democracy for no one, Nationalism for all - and then?"

In interviews with Austrian newspapers during the fall, he talked about the increasing wealth inequality in Europe and the fight against poverty, the fight against the Far-Right and environmentalism. Those are exactly the topics that NOW wants to run on in the EP elections. So, he would definitely fit their campaign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Peter_Martin

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/hans-peter-martin-lauter-aufschrei-macht-was/400125305

[Tender Branson]

Austria EU poll:



Turnout:

45% will definitely vote
37% will probably vote
13% will probably not vote
  5% will definitely not vote

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Der-grosse-Kanzler-Test/363497987

[Tender Branson]

So far, 3 parties to the Right of the FPÖ have announced their candidacies for EU Parliament.

* EU-NO !
* EU Exit Party
* The Voice

All of them will have to collect the 2.600 signatures between mid-March and mid-April to be on the ballot. I assume both anti-EU lists will make it, splitting the votes between them and taking some support away from the FPÖ.

"The Voice" (VOX) is a party of a former FPÖ member, who got expelled from the party because of Nazi postings. Even if he collects the 2.600 signatures (which I seriously doubt), this party would likely be banned for being unconstitutional.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP and Kurz have announced today that long-time Austrian EP delegation leader Othmar Karas will once again lead the party into the EP election in May as their lead candidate.

Karas was first elected in 1999 and is the most popular MEP in Austria. He's also a Liberal within the ÖVP, who often attacked the FPÖ and was even critical of Kurz on immigration and human rights on many occasions. But the threat that Karas could have split the ÖVP with a list of his own was too much of a danger for Kurz and he decided to once again nominate him as frontrunner.

Karas, a Romney/Kasich/Flake-type of politician within today's more conservative/populist ÖVP, will be supplemented with Karoline Edtstadler to head the ÖVP-ticket. Edtstadler (currently State Secretary within the Interior Ministry) is more of a modern ÖVP law-and-order type, highly skilled as a former European Court of Justice judge and more importantly: young and female.



https://derstandard.at/2000096602102/Karas-tritt-bei-EU-Wahl-wieder-fuer-OeVP-an

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP has presented their list for the EP elections today:

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The ÖVP is expected to get 6 out of 19 seats, but they have a strict preference vote system for their candidates, so if the 10th on the list beats the 6th in terms of preference votes this person will be elected (despite not legally entitled to under Austrian EU election law). But the ÖVP has instructed their candidates to waive to the better candidate in such a case.

All candidates except Karas and Mandl would be new MEPs.

https://derstandard.at/2000096730639/OeVP-beschliesst-einstimmig-ihre-Kandidatenliste-fuer-die-EU-Wahl

[Tender Branson]

Picture of the ÖVP's Top-10 candidates for the EP + Chancellor Kurz + Manfred Weber:

[Tender Branson]

What kind ticket is used in Austrian elections. It is possible to mark a particular candidate or just a list. Are these markings counted by officials.

This was the ballot in 2014:

http://www.wahlinformation.at/bild/eu-wahl/Stimmzettel-EU-Wahl2014.jpg

You can either:

A) vote for a party by checking the circle on the left side.

B) write in a candidate on the right side or the number of that candidate on the party list

If you write in a candidate only without selecting a party, that will still count as a vote for the candidate's party. For example, if you write in Karas - you have voted for the ÖVP and handed Karas a preference vote. You cannot select ÖVP though and write in a candidate for the SPÖ for example. Preference votes then get counted as well.

[Tender Branson]

2 new Austria polls about the EP elections and the EU:

Profil/Unique Research poll about turnout

49% plan to vote in the EP election (actual turnout was 45% in 2014 and 46% in 2009)
46% will not vote
  5% undecided

ATV/Hajek/POS about the EU's image in Austria

57% say the EU-membership benefits Austria
26% say the EU-membership does not benefit Austria
17% undecided

[Tender Branson]

Claudia Gamon was officially elected frontrunner of the liberal NEOS today with 95.2% of the votes.



She's by far the youngest and the only woman as frontrunner among our parties (which is kinda sad).

[Tender Branson]

NEOS could actually send 2 women to the EP (if they win 2 seats), because #2 on the list will be Karin Feldinger.





Here are the full results of the NEOS primary selection process:

https://vorwahl.neos.eu/euw-2019/results

[Tender Branson]

3/6 major Austrian parties have now officially released their candidate lists (ÖVP, SPÖ, NEOS).

Of the 11 MEPs these parties currently have in the EP, only 3 are running for re-election or have made the lists again (Othmar Karas-ÖVP, Lukas Mandl-ÖVP, Evelyn Regner-SPÖ).

The FPÖ and NOW are likely to present their lists next month, the Greens will do so in March.

[Tender Branson]

A new Austrian EP poll for the economic magazine "Trend":

"Do you know/have heard about this party frontrunner ?"



"Does this frontrunner have great/somewhat great competence on EUropean issues ?"



"Are you going to vote in the EP elections in May ?"



53% definitely
26% probably
16% nope

"Which of these statements is closest to your opinion ?"



56% only a unified Europe can compete with the US and China
15% only the strongest countries in Europe should form a common union
13% each country would be better off alone

https://www.trend.at/politik/eu-wahl-oevp-kandidat-karas-umfrage-10621712

[Tender Branson]

In Italy, the PD is being killed off compared with 2014:

[Tender Branson]

New Germany EU poll:

[Tender Branson]

Does Germany have the 5% hurdle back or is it gone for now? I thought the EU wanted to bring it back? (big mistake imo)

Those plans have been abandoned at least until the 2024 election ... so, there is still no hurdle.

[Tender Branson]

The EP has announced that the UK would have to hold elections as well in May, if Brexit is delayed (every EU member needs to hold the elections of course):

https://derstandard.at/2000097435489/Briten-muessten-bei-laengerer-Brexit-Verschiebung-Europawahl-abhalten

Turnout in the UK would probably be extremely low in such a case ...

[Tender Branson]

Johannes Voggenhuber will be presented as "List Now" frontrunner for the EP elections tomorrow:

https://derstandard.at/2000097460507/Voggenhuber-tritt-bei-der-EU-Wahl-fuer-die-Liste-Jetzt

Voggenhuber is a former Green politician who already was in the EP between 1995 and 2009, when he was replaced by the Greens with Ulrike Lunacek. With him as frontrunner, it might be possible that NOW barely reaches the 4% threshold and therefore a seat in the EP.

That means all 6 major parties now have selected their frontrunners.

5 of the 6 are old, white men and political dinosaurs - and only NEOS has a young, female frontrunner.

[Tender Branson]

Johannes Voggenhuber and "List Now" held a press conference today and announced that while Voggenhuber will become frontrunner, "List Now" will not run on its own - but rather support the newly established "Initiative 1 Europe", which is independent from the "List Now" and open to other party members or independent candidates.

Also, Voggenhuber announced that he would join Greens-EFA if elected to the EP.



The candidacy of Voggenhuber for I1E/List Now is tough news for the Green Party and it seems that both will end up with around 4-6% of the votes.

https://derstandard.at/2000097509304/Jetzt-Spitzenkandidat-Johannes-Voggenhuber-Der-radikale-Europaeer

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll:





https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-EU-Wahl-wird-zum-Krimi/367140956

There are also rumours that Greens + List Now/Initiative 1 Europe are in talks about a Unity List for this election only (or at least some people want it, while others don't). This would certainly be good, because if they run against each other, they could end up with 4% each - and both could fail to get a seat in the EP (because even though there's a 4% hurdle, you need more than that considering there are only 19 seats).

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ starts with the creation of first posters for the EU election:

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"They" = delusional pro-immigrant leftists

"him" = FPÖ Interior Minister Kickl

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