European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Could the EU parliament vote and reject Strache‘s seat if he takes it ?

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache (FPÖ) elected to the EU parliament via preference votes.

He got so many write-in votes that he received a basic mandate.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/jetzt-erst-recht-ueber-22000-vorzugsstimmen-fuer-strache/400506817

Strache just posted that he will take his seat in the EU parliament:



The fun begins !

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer just said that he's not "opposed in principle" that Strache takes his EU parliament seat.

Said Hofer: "Fact is that Strache received an enormous amount of preference votes, enabling him to take the seat. It is HIS decision."

[Tender Branson]

Almost all postal ballots are counted in Austria, only Vorarlberg is missing.

Turnout will be 60% (+15).

[Tender Branson]

Final Austria result:

34.55% ÖVP (+7.6%)
23.89% SPÖ (-0.2%)
17.20% FPÖ (-2.5%)
14.08% Greens (-0.4%)
  8.44% NEOS (+0.3%)
  1.04% Europa (+1.0%)
  0.80% KPÖ (+0.8%)

Seats: 7 ÖVP (+2), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 3 FPÖ (-1), 2 Greens (-1), 1 NEOS (n.c.)

The 19th seat after Brexit would go to the Greens.

Turnout: 60% (+15%)

Austria voted: 52% Right (+1%), 40% Left (-1%), 8% Centrist-Liberal (n.c.)

Incredible how accurate the 1st projection was when polls closed.

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

[Tender Branson]

All this different parties... I know none of them

Well, for US starters take a look here: www.election-results.eu

The different parties are all lined up under umbrella groups in the EU parliament, with Social Democrats, Greens, Leftists and Liberals all roughly what Democrats are in the US. While EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF parties are mostly what you can refer to as Republicans (but only ECR, EFDD and ENF are Trumpish, while the EPP is moderately conservative).

As you can see, the blocks split down to ca. 48% "Center-Left-Liberal" vs. 47% "Center-Right-Conservative-FarRight" and another 5% others or newly elected members (who will choose sides soon, or not).

[Tender Branson]

Final results now in 13 countries, provisional in 14 and 1 estimate (Ireland).

Turnout: 51% (1% higher than in the US midterms). Without the UK probably around 53-54%.

https://www.election-results.eu

[Tender Branson]

Nice Austria maps down to the local level and with party strength, now showing the final results:

http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html?apaview=election:eu

Click on Bundesländer (= states), Bezirke (= districts) or Gemeinden (= towns/cities).

Then select Hochburgen (= party strongholds) and select a party below the map.

Beteiligung = turnout.

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Party transfers (2014 -> 2019):

https://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2019_EUW_WaehlerstroemeEUW.pdf

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Election motives and how groups voted:



https://www.sora.at/en/topics/electoral-behavior/election-analyses/euw19-en.html

https://www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2019_EUW_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

[Tender Branson]

This is brutal:

* men without high education
* men with high education (x Tender)
* women without high education
* women with high education

[Tender Branson]

Candidates with the most preference votes in Austria:



If Strache takes his EU seat, Petra Steger will be left without a seat. She’d get in if he refuses.

If Strache takes his EU seat, we would have a 10-8 male delegation. If he refuses, it’s 9-9. The ÖVP and Neos have a majority-female group and the Greens are balanced.

On the other hand it could be that the Green lead candidate Werner Kogler also refuses to take his seat, because the Greens want him as their frontrunner for September after his more than successful campaign. In this case, the Greens would have 2 female representatives.

[Tender Branson]

The 4 Pirates from the Czech Republic + Germany will join G/EFA.

[Tender Branson]

South-East Poland = Oklahoma, or worse.

[Tender Branson]

The Strache-EU Parliament saga continues ...

The FPÖ wants to convince Strache behind the scenes not to take the seat, which he is entitled to via preference votes, because it would create even more negative headlines for the party during the summer holidays and up to the federal election.

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

It would be quite ironic if Strache takes the seat though, after he has frequently criticized EU parliamentarians as out-of-touch and overpaid nobodies, or as „used people“ from the nation states that are „planted“ there because their time at home is up ...

Strache has another 4 weeks to decide until the new EP convenes.

If he takes it, he would be NI, not an FPÖ parliamentarian.

[Tender Branson]

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

Won't he get a ton of money for years to come?

Once Strache quit the government and all other posts, he lost his salary of ca. 20.000€ per month for being Vice-Chancellor.

There is also no future pay for him, because Strache had the possibility to return as MP in the  Austrian parliament, which he refused as well. So, basically he could go to the AMS (Austrian Labour Market Agency) and file for unemployment money there.

If he takes the EU seat though, he would get some 10.000-20.000€ per month again, depending on how many plenary meetings he attends ...

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5632427/Strache-hat-keinen-Anspruch-auf-Gehaltsfortzahlung

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Soviel-wuerde-Strache-als-EU-Mandatar-verdienen-59066235

[Tender Branson]

24/28 countries now have final or official results, while 4 have provisional results (Belgium, Hungary, Italy, Spain).

Provisional results: First results as presented by the Member State’s official election authority on the basis of a percentage of votes counted.

Final results: Results as published by the Member State’s official election authority after all of the votes have been counted.

Official results: Definitive results as proclaimed by the Member State’s official election authority and validated by the national legislative authority.

https://www.election-results.eu

[Tender Branson]

A comparison of the 2019 result and 2014 result by town:

[Tender Branson]

Did someone known the place where we can see all elected candidates?

Yes.

On the European Parliament website, after their 1st meeting in early July.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian results were made official & certified today.

The following people have won seats in the next EU parliament:

Mag. Karoline Edtstadler - (ÖVP)
Dr. Othmar Karas - (ÖVP)
Mag. Dr. Angelika Winzig - (ÖVP)
Simone Schmiedtbauer - (ÖVP)
Mag. Lukas Mandl - (ÖVP)
Barbara Thaler - (ÖVP)
Dipl.-Ing. Alexander Bernhuber - (ÖVP)
Mag. Andreas Schieder - (SPÖ)
Mag. Evelyn Regner - (SPÖ)
Mag. Dr. Günther Sidl - (SPÖ)
Mag. Dr. Bettina Vollath - (SPÖ)
Hannes Heide - (SPÖ)
Harald Vilimsky - (FPÖ)
Heinz-Christian Strache - (FPÖ)
Mag. Dr. Georg Mayer, M.B.L. HSG - (FPÖ)
Mag. Werner Kogler - (GRÜNE)
Sarah Wiener - (GRÜNE)
Claudia Gamon - (NEOS)

Strache will apparently announce tomorrow if he'll take the seat.

[Tender Branson]

Strache is now officially being investigated for embezzlement and bribery by the Austrian corruption prosecution office.

https://derstandard.at/2000104818551/Laut-Profil-ermittelt-die-Korruptionsstaatsanwaltschaftgegen-Strache

Apparently, the meeting between Hofer and Strache is still ongoing about whether Strache should take his EU seat or not ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache is now officially being investigated for embezzlement and bribery by the Austrian corruption prosecution office.

https://derstandard.at/2000104818551/Laut-Profil-ermittelt-die-Korruptionsstaatsanwaltschaftgegen-Strache

Apparently, the meeting between Hofer and Strache is still ongoing about whether Strache should take his EU seat or not ...

The Hofer-Strache meeting has ended and Strache has delayed his decision to Monday:

https://orf.at/stories/3126700

Hofer said: "I'm confident that he'll do the right thing."

PS: Yesterday, Strache had his 50th birthday. The FPÖ cancelled the big party they had planned for him for the occasion. Strache only invited the family instead.

If the FPÖ doesn't want him to take any office, he could go back to fixing teeth instead. Or collect unemployment/welfare checks at the AMS (Labour Market Agency).

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian results were made official & certified today.

The following people have won seats in the next EU parliament:

Mag. Karoline Edtstadler - (ÖVP)
Dr. Othmar Karas - (ÖVP)
Mag. Dr. Angelika Winzig - (ÖVP)
Simone Schmiedtbauer - (ÖVP)
Mag. Lukas Mandl - (ÖVP)
Barbara Thaler - (ÖVP)
Dipl.-Ing. Alexander Bernhuber - (ÖVP)
Mag. Andreas Schieder - (SPÖ)
Mag. Evelyn Regner - (SPÖ)
Mag. Dr. Günther Sidl - (SPÖ)
Mag. Dr. Bettina Vollath - (SPÖ)
Hannes Heide - (SPÖ)
Harald Vilimsky - (FPÖ)
Heinz-Christian Strache - (FPÖ)
Mag. Dr. Georg Mayer, M.B.L. HSG - (FPÖ)
Mag. Werner Kogler - (GRÜNE)
Sarah Wiener - (GRÜNE)
Claudia Gamon - (NEOS)

Strache will likely not take his seat now, after the FPÖ offered his wife Philippa a secure spot on the Vienna list for the coming federal election and Strache a return in 2020, to become frontrunner for the Vienna state election (if the corruption prosecution eventually finds nothing regarding the Ibiza-scandal).

https://derstandard.at/2000104866649/Philippa-Strache-soll-fuer-den-Nationalrat-kandidieren

Also: Werner Kogler announced today that he will not take his seat in the EP and instead he will become the Green frontrunner in the federal election.

https://orf.at/stories/3126769

That means Petra Steger (FPÖ) and Monika Vana (Greens) will replace the two guys and the Austrian delegation will be 10-8 female instead of 10-8 male.

[Tender Branson]

How is Petra Steger policy-wise compared to her father?

More extreme and more in line with the modern FPÖ I would say on immigration/crime etc.

I have not heard a lot about Norbert, her father recently, other than that he's sitting in the public broadcaster ORF as an FPÖ-representative.

Petra Steger often speaks at FPÖ campaign events to fire up the crowd with anti-immigrant slogans.

[Tender Branson]

We are over one year away from the European Parliament elections throughout the EU, so it’s time for a thread!

I think it's a joke about how people on here will sometimes start a thread on an election 3 years before it's actually going to take place.

Or people like me, who do not start a thread 3 years or 4 years before an election - but who have a rolling, continued thread ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache will not take his EU parliament seat.

[Tender Branson]

All 28 countries now have final or certified/official results:

19 have final results, while 9 have already certified their results.

https://election-results.eu

S&D+RE+Greens/EFA+GUE/NGL: 50%
EPP+ID+ECR+EFDD: 48%
Others: 2%