European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Austria polls close in 30 minutes.

Notice that the "exit poll" that will be released at 5pm was conducted among 5.200 voters between Tuesday and today.

This might have nothing to do with the eventual results, because people often lie to pollsters ... (especially now).

ORF live stream (starts in 15 minutes):

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/EU-Wahl-19-ZIB-Spezial-Europa-waehlt/14016105

Results page (after 11pm):

http://wahl19.bmi.gv.at

Map (after 11pm):

http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html?apaview=election:eu

Click on Bezirke and Gemeinden for district and city results.

[Tender Branson]

Polls closing in 5 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Dumb question: Did PILZ run with Greens ?

Nope, on their own: Initiative Europa (2%)

[Tender Branson]

This is only a week-long poll.

The results could be different ...

[Tender Branson]

The 15.5% for the combined Greens here should be a good omen for the German Greens ...

In polls before the election, the Greens were polling between 6-10% and NOW at 2%, so they underpolled by 5% !

The SPÖ is the big loser in all of this.

[Tender Branson]

The Ö24 exit poll by Research Affairs is a bit different:



ÖVP: +8%
SPÖ: n.c.
FPÖ: -2%
Greens: -2.5%
NEOS: +1%
NOW: +1%
KPÖ: +1%

vs. ORF/APA/ATV:



ÖVP: +7.5%
SPÖ: -0.5%
FPÖ: -2.5%
Greens: -1%
NEOS: n.c.
NOW: +2%
KPÖ: +1%

[Tender Branson]

The ORF/APA/ATV trend projection will be updated in 1 hour to include a lot more interviews with voters that were done today ...

[Tender Branson]

From the SORA projection:

"Austria should exit the EU."



86% No
12% Yes

ÖVP-voters: 93-7 No
FPÖ-voters: 50-43 Yes

SPÖ-voters: 95-3 No
Green-voters: 100-0 No
NEOS-voters: 97-4 No

[Tender Branson]

The EU parliament estimates turnout at 51%, up from 42.6% in 2014 and the highest in more than 20 years.

It would also be higher than the 50% in the US midterms last year (see the bet here).

http://www.electproject.org/2018g

[Tender Branson]

The wait for official results to be released at 11pm is highly annoying ...

I think the EU should punish Italy for being such dicks. Italy it seems does not care about old people like me who have to get up early tomorrow for work. I think they should return South Tyrol to Austria as punishment.

[Tender Branson]

Finland 100% counted:

National Coalition Party (EPP) 20.8% – 3 MEPs
Green League  (G-EFA) 16% – 2 MEPs
Social Democratic Party (S&D) 14.6% – 2 MEPs
Finns Party (ECR > EAPN) 13.8% – 2 MEPs
Centre Party (ALDE) 13.5% – 2 MEPs
Left Alliance (GUE-NGL) 6.9% – 1 MEP
Swedish People's Party (ALDE) 6.3% – 1 MEP
Christian Democrats (EPP) 4.9% – 0 MEPs

This is against the rules.

Every other country withholding their official results until 11pm would be stupid, if certain countries are blatantly breaking the rules.

Finland should be annexed by Russia as punishment.

[Tender Branson]

The number of Italian late voters who allow Finnish results to affect their vote? Zero.

It does not matter. The rules are rules and not there to be broken.

You and certain other traitor countries are criminals and unfair to other countries that uphold the rules.

The better solution would be a unified poll closing time in all countries of 6 or 7 pm though.

[Tender Branson]

Austria results (precincts 100% counted, excl. postal ballots which are counted tomorrow):

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at

Turnout will be 60% with postal ballots (+15%), because around 600.000 ballots will be added tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Projection with postal ballots (ÖVP, Greens, NEOS do much better with those, FPÖ far worse):

35.6% ÖVP (+9)
23.2% SPÖ (-1)
17.0% FPÖ (-3)
13.8% Greens (-1)
  8.5% NEOS (+1)
  1.1% Europe Now (+1)
  0.8% KPÖ (+1)
  0.0% Others (-6)

Turnout: 60% (+15%)

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ wins not a single district in Austria ...

[Tender Branson]

In my district, Zell am See, the ÖVP wins 48% (+14%), FPÖ 15% (-5%).

[Tender Branson]

Seats now and after Brexit (Greens would gain a 3rd seat !):

[Tender Branson]

There's a small chance that the ÖVP could win Carinthia (!) tomorrow with the postal ballots, but tiny advantage SPÖ I would say.

Carinthia is a SPÖ-stronghold.

The ÖVP has overtaken the SPÖ in another one of their strongholds, the state of Burgenland.

In Styria, the SPÖ and FPÖ battle it out for 2nd place - only divided by a few hundred votes.

The Greens will easily overtake the FPÖ in Tyrol tomorrow.

NEOS wins 18% in Vorarlberg.

[Tender Branson]

Salvini, Farage and Le Pen have achieved in Italy, UK and France what Strache/Haider never could:

Become strongest party in a national election.

[Tender Branson]

AfD wins Saxony with 30%, CDU at 27%.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ cut in half in Vienna.

2015 state election: 31% (during the height of the refugee crisis)
Today: 14%

[Tender Branson]

600.000 postal ballots will be counted tomorrow and Chancellor Kurz will likely be impeached.

ÖVP+Greens+NEOS at 58%, bodes well for September.

Good night.

[Tender Branson]

Austria, a sea of ÖVP with a few dots of FPÖ down in Carinthia and a few Green wins in Vienna:



Black = tie.

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache (FPÖ) elected to the EU parliament via preference votes.

He got so many write-in votes that he received a basic mandate.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/jetzt-erst-recht-ueber-22000-vorzugsstimmen-fuer-strache/400506817