Swedish election, 2018: Political Impasse, Löfven loses confidence vote

[Tender Branson]

It seems the biggest gains for SD so far are in central/southern Sweden near the border to Norway.

The Social Democrats actually have some gains in the Stockholm suburbs and other urban areas.

[Tender Branson]

The Social Democrats are doing much better than I thought.

While there are some moderate losses in the rural areas, they are doing quite well in the urban areas (like the SPÖ last year). I think they could get 26-28% in the end.

At this rate, the SD will only end up around 18-20% in the end.

There are some polls giving SD at 16% and others at 19%. Whicj prediction should we trust?

The SVT one with 19% looks ok.

[Tender Branson]

Even though S + M didn't bleed as much support as some polls suggested they would and the Greens barely stayed above 4% and in parliament, I would still say that Red-Green was sort of "voted out" yesterday.

It would be better if there's a change of government now with the Alliance parties + some backing of the SD on some issues.

[Tender Branson]

Hydera, here is a newer map:

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

The other option is new elections, but this probably would result in the same situation again, just with the Sweden Democrats a few points stronger but the left/right blocks still with the same support each - just much lower.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm ...

Maybe it's finally time to stop ignoring the Sweden Democrats and start coalition talks with them.

You cannot ignore a major party forever. Someone needs to tell that to the Swedish mainstream parties, so they "get it".

That's what von Papen and Schliecher thought in Germany in 1933 and look how that turned out...

The vast majority of Swedes voted for parties that completely reject working with the Sweden Democrats. So part of democracy is to respect that. If at some point over 50% of Swedes vote for the neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats then they will have earned the right to govern. In the meantime, the other parties are under no obligation to work with them.

The SD have not much to do with the Nazis and 2018 is not 1933.

There are some far-right parties that are in government (or were), also in Scandinavia, such as FrP, True Finns, DPP, FPÖ, Lega, Bolsonaro and the Trump-GOP - who all show that it's possible to govern with them (even if you do not agree with their policies).

If far-right parties are constantly ignored, their supporters will only become more and more disappointed in the democratic system and more agitated and radical and eventually will throw out the elitist system of mainstream parties in a wave election (as seen in 2016 and this year in Brazil).

Taking into account those voters and embed them in the democratic system will signal to them that they are taken seriously and that they are not seen as 2nd class voters by the elitist, detached mainstream parties and voters who think they are the best and nobody else.

Besides, polls have shown that voters (not the party leadership !) of the Swedish Moderates, KD and Liberals are slightly in favour of starting coalition talks with the Sweden Democrats, so your point is wrong.

[Tender Branson]

If there is no government formed by Jan. 23rd, will new elections automatically be held on April 21st ?

Or is there a possibility for them to be held together with the EU elections on May 26th ?

I assume that new general elections would have to be called immediately, but it would be better to hold them together with the EU elections because A) it would save money and B) turnout in the EU elections would be much higher than the usual low 45% even in Sweden, because general elections typically have 85-90% turnout.

[Tender Branson]

An extra election must be held within three months of the fourth failed PM vote. The Speaker has stated that the 4th PM vote will take place on 23 January (if needed), so 21 April is the latest possible election date.

I already thought that there would be a legal hurdle here ...

Maybe the Speaker should consider eliminating the Jan. 16 PM vote and set a final one in late February then, so that if this fails as well, the election can be held together with the EU elections.

[Tender Branson]

Löfven has just delivered his policy statement to the Riksdag and announced the members of his cabinet.

Amanda Lind, 38 (MP) - Minister for Culture and Democracy. Former Party Secretary of the Greens and before that Deputy Mayor of Härnösand

I think Löfven made a big gamble allowing her into his cabinet, considering she could potentially hide Lord Voldemort on the backside of her turban ...