Turkey referendum, 2017

[Tender Branson]

Its over.  Unless Istanbul which is almost not counted has a massive No vote then Yes will win easily.

Istanbul won't have a massive No vote.

It will vote Yes with 55-45.

[Tender Branson]

Based on the map and count so far, I expect a final result of around 55% YES.

Maybe 56% if the vote abroad is exceptionally pro-Erdogan.

[Tender Branson]

38% counted, YES drops below 60%.

[Tender Branson]

Antalya and Izmir are delivering solidly for NO so far and not a lot counted there.

Istanbul (15 million people) moving closer to 50-50.

I guess YES could drop below 55% in the end ...

[Tender Branson]

The Black Sea coast and the heartland (60-75% YES) are probably winning it for Erdogan.

Still, a lot of NO-votes coming in from the Med. Coast and Istanbul/Ankara are getting closer too.

[Tender Branson]

Expat vote starting to trickle in:

Germany: 62% Yes
Austria: 73% Yes
Netherlands: 74% Yes
Belgium: 80% Yes

Finland: 70% No
Australia: 81% No

[Tender Branson]

My new estimate is YES 53%, 47% No in the end.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that our Turks are the 2nd most fanatical in Europe ...

[Tender Branson]

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes and YES !

https://twitter.com/DahiBilal/status/853576743101321218

[Tender Branson]

The CHP speaks of massive voter fraud.

2.5 million votes are being contested by them.

[Tender Branson]

Would like to see Belgium, although I have a pretty good idea how it will turn out.

Scroll down to the World Map and you'll see that Belgium is currently at 78% Yes, with 24% counted.

http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-referandum-2017/secim-sonuclari

[Tender Branson]

Via the Standard.at live-ticker:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

WTF ?

"The National Election Commission has just announced that only 70% of precincts have been counted yet and not the more than 97% reported by newspapers and TV stations. The opposition parties CHP and HDP are speaking of irregularities and want to contest the referendum."

[Tender Branson]

the truth is, as usual, in the mid.

those turks who are austrians, germans etc aren't allowed anymore to vote anyway.

Unless they have an illegal dual citizenship, which many Turks with Austrian citizenship have. Estimates are that ca. 20.000 Austro-Turks also have an illegal dual citizenship. That's because 109.000 people were eligible to vote in Austria, but there are only 90.000 Turkish citizens here above the age of 18. Exact numbers about illegal dual citizens are hard to get because Turkish authorities do not share citizenship data with Austrian authorities. The FPÖ has argued to ID people who enter the Turkish consulate to vote, to try and single out illegal dual citizenship holders and then strip them of their Austrian citizenship.

[Tender Branson]

To be honest, all this ordeal proves to me is that Western Europe is, culturally and socially, just a much worse fit than countries like the US or Canada for the assimilation of immigrants.

Maybe.

But the Turks are here for 50 years now. What should we have done differently really ? One of my 2 best friends in high school were Turkish and I spent many times at their home. While they were mostly liberal at the time of high school, their parents were arch-conservatives and living in "their own bubble world" here in rural Austria - only talking with other Turks in the area and never with the locals (not that many older local Austrians had much contact with them, other than at work in the factories). My father worked with many Turks in the factory and got along well with them, joking with them etc. But culturally, they were MILES apart from Austrian culture. And even their kids and grandkids still are, but to a smaller degree. While my one best Turkish friend from high school is now living a liberal life in Vienna, being a physics teacher - the other, female one, has now 2 kids and spends her time at home. Being married to a guy her parents chose. And that despite attending a more liberal high school with me ...

[Tender Branson]

While virtually all precincts are now counted in Turkey, there's still 500.000 votes left to be counted for Turks abroad.

The YES-vote seems to be stabilizing at 51.3% and could go up to 51.4% or 51.5% again, with the remaining votes from abroad.

[Tender Branson]

Only 21 precincts are left to be counted in Turkey itself.

But 1.800 precincts for abroad.

YES seems to win with 51.4% when everything is in.

[Tender Branson]

Erdogan to speak soon ...

I have the transcript of his speech:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

What is the difference between expats from countries, that voted for (Belgium, Austria) and that voted against (Spain, UK, Australia)?

I cannot speak for the other countries, but most Turkish guest workers who arrived in Austria in the late 1960s to the 1990s came from very conservative/nationalist parts of Turkey.

In fact, most Turks in Salzburg come from the Black Sea provinces of Samsun and Ordu (which voted for YES with 2/3 of the vote) and the vast rural, population-rich Konya-province (which voted with over 70% for YES).

That might be a reason why Austrian Turks have the 2nd highest YES-vote in Europe, after Belgium.

Maybe the Turkish immigrants in other countries are from the more CHP-leaning coastal or Kurdish areas in Turkey.

[Tender Branson]

Why isn't it a personal choice matter, integration?

I don't know, why you believe this referendum, is good, when it gives full power to Erdogan, and makes turkey a dictatorship with Erdogan's wishes going through without any dissent.

Erdogan, a figure comparable to Trump, but worse.

F*K Turkey, and maybe Germany, should stop giving arms to Turkey, and then be shocked, that it's turkish populace voted for Erdogan.


Also: What is the difference between expats from countries, that voted for (Belgium, Austria) and that voted against (Spain, UK, Australia)?

I'm just reacting to people who are citing integration failures et cetera and all.
I don't think you can actually force people to integrate into society unless they want to. If they aren't committing crimes, you are on thin ice as well, because you risk trampling religious freedom as well. Europe needs to understand that it has to be more accommodating of these cultures that the refugees bring. Some of the 'solutions' I've seen proposed, they don't fix the crux of the problem, they only entrench the current situation. Which is not ideal. I am glad that some of the kemalist-laiciest-excessively secularist garbage that is acceptable in France would never fly in America.
As for the referendum; I don't think the whole parliamentary supremacy thing with a figurehead president, that Turkey currently has, is ideal, and I think that checks and balances does work. I don't think some of the parts of this reform are that good at all; but hopefully this will get redone to make things a bit more equal in the future.

It'd be nice, if it was the discussion of whether parliament or president should be superior, or if this was a manipulated vote to control and silence the opposition, which this referendum was, and turning Turkey into a Russia-style country.

Also Europe does not need to be accommodating to the "culture" of guests, if it goes against values of western equality and secularism.

Refugees must integrate, as should immigrants, to at least fit in and interact in western society, especially their children and generation after that. Cultural norms, can of course remain intact, but only if it doesn't against the values of the country that they immigrated to.

Many of them are not doing that though ...

During the night, many young Austro-Turks (born here already) drove through Vienna in their cars, honking and waving Turkish flags & celebrating Erdogan's victory.

That's integration !?

[Tender Branson]

Here's another way to look at the Austrian results (73% voting Yes):

There are 290.000 people with a Turkish migration background, according to the latest Statistics Austria report.

If we assume that 70% are older than 18, that's about 203.000 people.

38.200 voted Yes, 14.000 voted No.

108.600 were eligible.

So, based on the 203.000 Austro-Turks of voting age ...

19% voted Yes
  7% voted No
28% were eligible, but didn't vote
46% were not eligible at all to vote

[Tender Branson]

1. Turkey closed the door towards the European Union, even the dumbest EU Leaders have to aknowledge that there is no way for Turkey to enter the EU. Hopefully Erdogan will hold a second Referendum regarding the EU and the Turkey will do what these silly EU Politicians can't do: End the negotiations!

2. Very funny once again is the complete hypocrisy of the (European) Left and the propaganda media. They are manipulating and influencing every European Election way more than Erdogan could ever do. Really laughable that THEY OF ALL PEOPLE are crying about unfair conditions, voter fraud and media control.
I send my best regards to Austria where the state media, the so called "free press" and the government worked Hand in Hand to deliver a razor thin victory for the Establishment candidate using voter fraud, public assasination of the other candidate and massive propaganda and lies. But yeah, you guys are the right once to criticize Erdogan :-D

3. I close with endorsing the calls for abolishing of "double citizenship" in Germany and for remigration of the red-green voter base of Erdogan supporters.

Are you nuts ?

There was no, I repeat no, voter fraud in the first round here. That's a conspiracy theory of your far right wing friends and nothing else. Even the Constitutional Court found nothing.

And the character assasination thing was mostly done by Hofer and the FPÖ who portrayed VdB as a Communist.

[Tender Branson]

1. Turkey closed the door towards the European Union, even the dumbest EU Leaders have to aknowledge that there is no way for Turkey to enter the EU. Hopefully Erdogan will hold a second Referendum regarding the EU and the Turkey will do what these silly EU Politicians can't do: End the negotiations!

2. Very funny once again is the complete hypocrisy of the (European) Left and the propaganda media. They are manipulating and influencing every European Election way more than Erdogan could ever do. Really laughable that THEY OF ALL PEOPLE are crying about unfair conditions, voter fraud and media control.
I send my best regards to Austria where the state media, the so called "free press" and the government worked Hand in Hand to deliver a razor thin victory for the Establishment candidate using voter fraud, public assasination of the other candidate and massive propaganda and lies. But yeah, you guys are the right once to criticize Erdogan :-D

3. I close with endorsing the calls for abolishing of "double citizenship" in Germany and for remigration of the red-green voter base of Erdogan supporters.

Are you nuts ?

There was no, I repeat no, voter fraud in the first round here. That's a conspiracy theory of your far right wing friends and nothing else. Even the Constitutional Court found nothing.

And the character assasination thing was mostly done by Hofer and the FPÖ who portrayed VdB as a Communist.

Yeah, that's what AKP/Erdogan Fans write on social media about their Leader. So close, so much in common...

The biggest tragedy of our days is that highly manipulated people defend their manipulators because they think that the truth is manipulation and a "right-wing conspiracy".

The funny thing is you guys really believe your reality denial :-D But keep on, more to laugh about for me.

The biggest tragedy is that you still grieve over Austria not electing a new Führer with Norbert Hofer and that you fail to see how the population chose the less controversial candidate over the guy who would have put to shame our image abroad.

Both sides fought hard of course, but that's normal in democratic campaigns, the media wasn't partisan and there was no voter fraud.

[Tender Branson]

1. Turkey closed the door towards the European Union, even the dumbest EU Leaders have to aknowledge that there is no way for Turkey to enter the EU. Hopefully Erdogan will hold a second Referendum regarding the EU and the Turkey will do what these silly EU Politicians can't do: End the negotiations!

2. Very funny once again is the complete hypocrisy of the (European) Left and the propaganda media. They are manipulating and influencing every European Election way more than Erdogan could ever do. Really laughable that THEY OF ALL PEOPLE are crying about unfair conditions, voter fraud and media control.
I send my best regards to Austria where the state media, the so called "free press" and the government worked Hand in Hand to deliver a razor thin victory for the Establishment candidate using voter fraud, public assasination of the other candidate and massive propaganda and lies. But yeah, you guys are the right once to criticize Erdogan :-D

3. I close with endorsing the calls for abolishing of "double citizenship" in Germany and for remigration of the red-green voter base of Erdogan supporters.

Are you nuts ?

There was no, I repeat no, voter fraud in the first round here. That's a conspiracy theory of your far right wing friends and nothing else. Even the Constitutional Court found nothing.

And the character assasination thing was mostly done by Hofer and the FPÖ who portrayed VdB as a Communist.

Yeah, that's what AKP/Erdogan Fans write on social media about their Leader. So close, so much in common...

The biggest tragedy of our days is that highly manipulated people defend their manipulators because they think that the truth is manipulation and a "right-wing conspiracy".

The funny thing is you guys really believe your reality denial :-D But keep on, more to laugh about for me.

The biggest tragedy is that you still grieve over Austria not electing a new Führer with Norbert Hofer and that you fail to see how the population chose the less controversial candidate over the guy who would have put to shame our image abroad.

Both sides fought hard of course, but that's normal in democratic campaigns, the media wasn't partisan and there was no voter fraud.

You sound salty, honey.

Yeah of course, the ORF and all othe "free press" outlets where totally unbiased, fair and balanced I know :-D But THESE DAMN GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED MEDIA IN TURKEY!!!111

Our media outlets are very different as you know and most are centrist. Some have center left or center right leanings. ALL had ads of BOTH Hofer and VdB and reported in a neutral way though.

If you compare our media outlet landscape with Turkey's, where the govt.  media outlets gave the AKP 95% of the airtime and the Kurdish Party 0% coverage, then you are clearly insane ...