Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

I will do monthly polls on top of the page on various political issues in Austria, in which you can vote.

The January poll is about the chances of SPÖVP blowing up this year or lasting until the regular election year 2018.

Poll will close on Jan. 31 and a new poll will be added ...

Have fun !

[Tender Branson]

The number of Catholics dropped to a new record low at the end of 2016, according to a new report out today:

59% of Austrians are now Catholic (5.16 million), but that number is down 1% compared with a year ago.

For example, during Census 2001 (the last to survey religion), about 74% were Catholics.

That means the Catholic share among the population will drop to below 50% in the year 2025.

The number of Protestants is in a similar decline: Their share went from about 6.5% of the population in 1971 to about 3.2% now, while other Christians represent about 3% of the population.

Altogether, about 65% are now Christian.

The number of Muslims, like those of the non-religious, is rising rapidely:

In 1971, there were only a handful of Muslims in Austria (0% of the population).

In 1991, it rose to 2% and in 2001 to 4.2%

The latest estimate (incl. the mostly Muslim immigrants from the past few years) put the percentage to around 8% of the population. This is expected to rise to around 10% by 2020.

To sum it up:

59% Catholics
  3% Protestants
  3% Other Christians
  8% Muslims
  1% Others (Jewish, Hindu, Buddhists etc.)
26% No religion (or former members)

http://derstandard.at/2000050476867/Zahl-der-Kirchenaustritte-2016-leicht-gesunken

[Tender Branson]

Isn't the number of Orthodox Christians higher than 3%?

I didn't find up-to-date membership numbers for the Orthodox Churches ...

The 2001 Census had about 200.000 "other Christians" counted, of which about 170.000 were Orthodox.

Contrary to Catholics and Protestants (which are declining), I think Orthodox Churches increased over the past 15 years, because of an influx in Serbs, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Russians etc.

So 3% (= 270.000 people) sounds OK.

Maybe 4%.

[Tender Branson]

What's next ?

On Jan. 11, Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) will give a "major" speech on the economy and jobs and what the SPÖ will do about it this year.

He will do so in Wels, a big city which has elected a FPÖ-mayor for the first time in 2015. Apparently, this is to win back some FPÖ-voters.

This is today.

Chancellor Christian Kern's speech will start at 5:30 pm at the Wels Congress Center and he'll speak in front of 1500 invited guests.



His speech (titled "Why wait ? It's time to get things to work now") is described by the media more like a "State of the Nation" speech, rather than a SPÖ-specific one.

"Obama-style" speeches by Austrian politicians are rather rare and mostly delivered only at special occasions, such as historical events.

But the Kern-speech today was planned for a long time, it will be very detailed and extensive (a 145-page folder with an updated SPÖ-platform will be released and handed out after the speech).

The speech will first and foremost focus on the economy and jobs, with Kern promising to create an additional 200.000 jobs over the next 4 years and bringing down unemployment. He will also present incentives for start-up companies, less bureaucracy for business owners and fairer taxes.

His second big theme will be education, health, pensions and care for older people. He'll put an emphasis on making Austrian kids much smarter to compete in today's economy, investing in digital school books, free tablets and laptops for kids and free WiFi in every classroom etc.

It will also be live-streamed, heavily reported and discussed on social media and a lot of press and media will cover it.

So, this is more like Kern's campaign kickoff event for the 2017/18 election year, rather than a normal speech.

And the setting of the speech in the city of Wels, as I mentioned above, is an attack on the FPÖ - to win back the struggling middle-class who more and more tends to abandon the SPÖ for the FPÖ.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/wie-christian-kern-weiter-kanzler-bleiben-will-rede-an-die-nation-story-548032

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern's speech yesterday evening lasted almost 2 hours and was well-received by the audience, the media and political experts.



At the beginning of the speech, he even apologized to voters for politicians distancing themselves further and further from the average voter, somehting which is very rare. Politicians usually carry on with their ususal talk and never apologize for anything ...

Kern then talked for 2 hours about how to move the country forward, invoking JFK and the plan for the moon landings a couple times and that Austria should do the same with jobs, education, innovation and startups.

In my opinion, his speech was extremely professional and I guess it could move the SPÖ support close to 30% again in the next weeks.

Here you can download the 150-page "Plan A":

https://cloud.headroom.at/download/planA

Or watch it online:

http://www.meinplana.at

Some pictures from the speech:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/sozialdemokratie/albums/72157677334106831

Here is the full speech (intro-video starts at around 13:00, followed by the speech):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjKVbFEbJSU

[Tender Branson]

The day after Kern's major speech, it seems the ÖVP is willing to take up some points (especially from the business area) and work out some solutions with the SPÖ.

The ÖVP also likes Kern's idea of introducing a FPTP-system as part of an election reform.

Meanwhile, the FPÖ strongly attacked Kern and his ideas: They are heavily against FPTP, even though they are currently the strongest party in the polls.

The Greens and NEOS were also quite critical today, while the Team Stronach supports the introduction of FPTP.

[Tender Branson]

I presume that you mean FPTP in the sense that he wants to introduce a mixed system right? He isn't going full idiot and endorsing British style FailPastThePost ... right?

Yeah, a mixed system in which the strongest party gets a bonus but which respects smaller parties too.

This is also what the ÖVP wants.

I guess SPÖ and ÖVP are speculating that with Kern (and later Kurz) as their leading candidates they will be able to fight for 1st place in 2018.

The FPÖ on the other hand, while first in the polls right now, would certainly fall back to below 30% in such a scenario (Kern and Kurz would get many voters who currently support the FPÖ).

I guess that's why the FPÖ is currently opposed to a FPTP system. But of course also because it's convenient for them right now if they can continue attacking SPÖ and ÖVP for a likely "power grab".

[Tender Branson]

Today, the FPÖ will hold their New Year's meeting in the Salzburg Arena.

Party leader Strache will give a 2-hour long speech in front of 3000 guests. He'll start with a look back at 2016 and the presidential race, then focus on jobs and the economy, followed by immigration and security issues.

Ahead of Strache, there will be speeches from Norbert Hofer and Salzburg's new FPÖ-party leader Marlene Svazek (24) - the youngest, female party leader so far in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

New Profil magazine poll about a future federal FPÖ government participation:

48% would approve of the FPÖ being part of the next federal government
42% would disapprove
10% are undecided

September 2015: 45% approve
June 2015: 39% approve

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170114_OTS0005/profil-umfrage-48-sind-fpoe-regierung-gegenueber-nicht-abgeneigt

[Tender Branson]

i support participation too.

the FPÖ needs to share responsibility .....

I'm absolutely no fan of the FPÖ, but to some extent you are right.

The state of Burgenland is a good example of how it might work: A strong SPÖ with a powerful governor who sometimes takes some right-wing positions to keep the FPÖ there weak. This resulted in the SPÖ getting 45% and the FPÖ less than 15%, allowing the SPÖ to be the dominant party in the coalition and the FPÖ turning into a meaningless secondary party that actually has to do some work rather than bitching around all day.

Also, if the FPÖ never gets any government responsibility it would simply lead to many voters tuning out of the electoral process and losing their trust in democracy. Calling all elections fake and rigged and how the establishment parties do everything to cling to power.

Therefore, I'd support a scenario in which the Kern-SPÖ and a Kurz-ÖVP, as well as a Griss-led NEOS would run a tough election campaign, in which the FPÖ gets decimated to around 20-25%.

Preferably, I would then like a coalition without the FPÖ - such as SPÖ/Greens/NEOS or ÖVP/Greens/NEOS, but it's uncertain if they'd have a majority. I'd also support a coalition only if the FPÖ is junior partner.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the FPÖ will hold their New Year's meeting in the Salzburg Arena.

Party leader Strache will give a 2-hour long speech in front of 3000 guests. He'll start with a look back at 2016 and the presidential race, then focus on jobs and the economy, followed by immigration and security issues.

Ahead of Strache, there will be speeches from Norbert Hofer and Salzburg's new FPÖ-party leader Marlene Svazek (24) - the youngest, female party leader so far in Austria.

Austria's far-right Freedom Party calls for ban on 'fascistic Islam'

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-fpo-idUSKBN14Y0N1?il=0

[Tender Branson]

Minus immigration? what does that mean? Forced exile?

"Minus immigration" is a word creation from Strache.

He said that the ÖVP's proposal to cap this year's asylum request quota from the planned 35.000 to 17.500 is a hoax, because many asylum seekers will request to bring their whole family with them when they are here.

That's why the FPÖ wants zero asylum seekers.

And not only that:

For "Minus immigration", deportations of illegals and criminals have to be significantly increased, according to Strache.

[Tender Branson]

Horrible polling numbers out today for the Vienna-SPÖ:

A new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 shows that if state elections were held today, the SPÖ would drop from 40% to 25%, with the FPÖ rising to 38%.



That comes after huge intra-party unrest, intrigues etc. - after which Mayor Häupl now decided to pull the plug on some cabinet members, with Sonja Wehsely the first to "go" this Friday (in fact, she was rather controversial and a better description would be "ousted"). A couple other of "Häupl's women" will also be axed in the next weeks, because of pressure from influential party members from the outlying districts of Vienna.

In general, there was an intra-party fight between the more FPÖ-leaning SPÖ-members from the outer districts such as Simmering, Favoriten, Donaustadt and Floridsdorf vs. the more left-leftists within the SPÖ in the inner-city districts.

And the intra-party fight also took a toll on the Mayor himself, with his approval ratings sliding rapidely. So, he decided to act. But I guess Häupls days as Mayor are coming to an end anyway soon.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Desaster-fuer-SP-Wien/265496725

[Tender Branson]

Thanks to the closure of the Balkan route, asylum requests are down by a lot in 2016 - but still among the highest in Europe on a per capita basis:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/asylum-requests-austria-more-halved-2016-180914058.html

[Tender Branson]

The "Kurier" reports that the powerful Governor of Lower Austria, Erwin Pröll (ÖVP), will announce today if he'll retire as Governor or wage another election in 2018.

Pröll, who has been Governor of Lower Austria for the past 25 (!) years, has been thinking carefully over the Christmas holidays about what his next step will be.



If he retires, it's likely that the former Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner (also ÖVP) will succeed him as Governor and lead the ÖVP into the 2018 state election.

While Pröll has governed Lower Austria like a king in the past 25 years and always managed to win absolute majorities for the ÖVP, it is likely that the ÖVP's share will drop by quite a bit with Mikl-Leitner as the new Governor (but of course the party will remain the dominant party in the state).

And, if Pröll really decides to retire today, it is also likely that Michael Häupl's days as Vienna mayor are soon to be over ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/niederoesterreich-tag-der-entscheidung-von-landeshauptmann-erwin-proell/241.488.418

[Tender Branson]

Aaannnd, he's retiring ... in March.

[Tender Branson]

end of the world as we know it.

this is like the arab spring for austria.

Yes, the sun is going down in Lower Austria ...

LOL

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, this is totally the result of profound contemplation and not because the story that broke a few days back may result in substantial proof of his massive corruption for the first time. Definitely. For sure.

Good riddance.

Everyone who thinks that the "System Pröll" is or was without corruption, is pretty naive anyway IMO.

But you have to give Pröll some credit for pulling out at exactly the right moment and leaving it to Johanna Mikl-Leitner to deal with the coming elections, attacks and "uncoverings" ...

[Tender Branson]

It's official:

Johanna Mikl-Leitner will follow Gov. Erwin Pröll as Governor of Lower Austria, once he retires in March.

This means Austria will have a female governor again, the first one since Gabriele Burgstaller - who left in 2013.

[Tender Branson]

The new and the old Governor:

[Tender Branson]

Media is speculating that if Sebastian Kurz wants to become the next Austrian Chancellor, he'd need to take the heavy risk and already become party leader at some point this year and also call early elections this year.

That's because with the Pröll-retirement, the Lower Austria ÖVP will drop by 10-15% in next years state election, which is held no later than March.

If Kurz were elected party leader after that catastrophic state election, he'd start the general election campaign with a huge setback.

On the other hand, early federal elections in 2017 would also be problematic for Kurz: Austrian voters do not like early elections and always punish the party that calls them. Besides, Austrians want 2017 off from any election after having the 3 presidential elections last year. Or as the media says: Austrians right now are "tired" of voting (which is a bit funny, because turnout increased last year between every election).

[Tender Branson]

Today the SPÖ called off their planned party platform convention in May, because "the party platform is not ready yet" (they worked to update it for the past 3 years, lol).

This is the official version of the SPÖ.

Media is speculating though that the SPÖ will simply use Kern's recent speech and his "Plan A" as their election campaign for an early election either in May or in the fall, because the work with the ÖVP will continue to be a pain in the ass in the next months.

http://derstandard.at/2000051128460/SPOe-sagt-ihren-Parteitag-im-Mai-ab

[Tender Branson]

A new Vienna poll is out today. Not as bad for the SPÖ as the last one on top of the thread, but still really bad:



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/Umfrage-FPOE-in-Wien-mit-37-Prozent-Nummer-1;art23660,1391095

[Tender Branson]

Muna Duzdar (SPÖ), the first Muslim cabinet member in Austria (she's of Palestinian origin), has visited Israel recently.

She praised Israel for being the "start-up country #1" and wants to bring some Israeli know-how to Austria.



http://derstandard.at/2000050161381/Duzdar-holte-sich-Tipps-der-Start-up-Nation-in-Israel

(when she became a Minister, the FPÖ subtly attacked her for being "anti-Israel" because of her Palestinian origins and also - subtly - because she's Muslim, even though she has often said that she's non-religious, but was only raised Muslim ... )

She's also a strong advocate for gay rights in the "It gets better" campaign and an advocate against hate speech on social media, but doesn't want to ban "fake-news" - calling it censorship.

More on Duzdar and Israel:

http://www.jta.org/2017/01/20/news-opinion/world/austrias-state-secretary-being-palestinian-doesnt-make-me-anti-israel

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls out today (and they show that the SPÖ did not gain a whole lot after the Kern-speech. A reason for this could be that the Strache-speech was also well-received by the public):

"Research Affairs" poll for Ö24



Chancellor vote:



Which speech did you like most ?



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe-gewinnt-nach-Kern-Rede/266178434

...

And the new "Profil" poll:

33% FPÖ
27% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
11% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20170121_OTS0001/profil-umfrage-kanzlerfrage-kern-doppelt-so-stark-wie-strache