Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ calls Kurz "Brutus" (one of the guys who killed Caesar) and wants him to come out of the woods about what he's intending to do.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Ö24 reports some "insider information" they received:

Kurz will take over the ÖVP on Sunday, when their federal committee will meet - and end the coalition with the SPÖ.

Snap elections in September or October are very likely now.

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

Snap elections likely to be held on September 10 or 17, according to the Ö24 live ticker (which should be taken with a grain of salt, it's a tabloid).

Parliament to be dissolved in May.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Ö24 reports some "insider information" they received:

Kurz will take over the ÖVP on Sunday, when their federal committee will meet - and end the coalition with the SPÖ.

Snap elections in September or October are very likely now.

How would the FPÖ do? They seem to have declined in the polls but remain pretty high.

The latest polls testing a matchup with Kurz were:

34-35% ÖVP
24-26% FPÖ
23-25% SPÖ
  9-10% Greens
    6-7% NEOS

Of course it remains to be seen if Kurz can hold this lead or not, now that he becomes ÖVP-leader. I guess it won't be sustainable during the campaign, but we'll see.

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland and - far more important - Syria Styria are for Kurz.

Kurz NEEDS snap elections, otherwise he would have missed his shot.

Tyrol apparently too:

Tyrol's ÖVP Governor Platter calls Kurz "the biggest talent we have in the party."

[Tender Branson]

September could be a mega-election month:

11th: Norway parliament
17th: Austria parliament
23rd: New Zealand parliament
24th: Germany parliament

[Tender Branson]

If Kurz wins, OVP-FPO likely ?

It could be. I read that Kurz is hardline on Turkey and refugee crisis, so he could probably attract and form a coalition with the FPÖ.

SPÖ-FPÖ or FPÖ-SPÖ is more likely at this point. The FPÖ has reservations about the ÖVP and thinks many of their social plans could be easier to pass with the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Some reports now that Finance Minister Schelling could become acting ÖVP-leader and Vice-Chancellor on Sunday, until a party convention is held within 3 months.

That would give Kurz A) time to position himself for the coming elections and B) additional time to stay out of the toxic coalition climate.

If for example the ÖVP-convention takes place in late June, he could continue to be above the fray as foreign minister and jump right into the campaign undamaged as frontrunner in early July.

[Tender Branson]

Even if the ÖVP pulls out of the coalition on Sunday, new elections are not certain:

For new elections, parliament needs to be dissolved by a majority of MPs. The SPÖ and Kern want to keep on working until the regular election date (late 2018). So, if the ÖVP wants new elections they need at least 2 opposition parties to back their snap election request. The FPÖ and Strache have already said yesterday they would vote for this. But ÖVP+FPÖ are currently 3 MPs short of a majority in parliament. There are 4 independent MPs right now, 3 of them former FPÖ members. But if they'd vote for early elections, they'd lose their seats sooner than they want. So they will likely vote No. That leaves Greens, NEOS and TS. The TS has said they will vote against new elections. NEOS and Strolz yesterday said that the government has obviously failed, but he'd like a Scandinavian-style minority government of several parties to work out the remaining term because the voters deserve it and there's a lot left to do. The Greens lean towards backing new elections, but are also not opposed to the NEOS-option of a minority government. Meanwhile, Kern will talk with all parties in the next days to see if there's a possibility to keep on working without ÖVP and FPÖ ...

[Tender Branson]

Strache out with a huge attack against Kurz today:

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[Tender Branson]

In today's meeting of ÖVP-governors, all of them lined up behind Kurz as their new leader.

Tyrol Gov. Platter, who led the meeting, said that "people have enough of the coalition attacks and enough of this government".

[Tender Branson]

Minister for Health, Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ), went into full hero-mode today:

She was giving a speech to the Austrian-Israeli Society, when a woman in the audience collapsed and suffered a heart attack. The minister, who's a doctor, jumped down the podium and helped her.

http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/ministerin-rendi-wagner-rettete-frau-das-leben-kollaps-erlitten-story-568841

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz will give a short press conference at 11am.

It is expected that he will announce that he's taking over the ÖVP, after virtually everyone in the party has come out and backed him in the previous days. It will likely be made official on Sunday.

The questions remaining are: Will Kurz also take over the Vice-Chancellor post (unlikely) ?

Will he remain Minister of Foreign Affairs and Integration, or focus only on the party and the elections ?

And is the ÖVP willing to grant him much greater powers than recent party leaders had, to re-shape and reform the party like he wants ?

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern's son has compared Kurz to former Ugandan dictator and mass-murderer Idi Amin:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5215278/KanzlerSohn-vergleicht-Sebastian-Kurz-mit-Diktator-Idi-Amin

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz will give a short press conference at 11am.

It is expected that he will announce that he's taking over the ÖVP, after virtually everyone in the party has come out and backed him in the previous days. It will likely be made official on Sunday.

The questions remaining are: Will Kurz also take over the Vice-Chancellor post (unlikely) ?

Will he remain Minister of Foreign Affairs and Integration, or focus only on the party and the elections ?

And is the ÖVP willing to grant him much greater powers than recent party leaders had, to re-shape and reform the party like he wants ?

The "Presse" has learned that Kurz will indeed take over the party:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5216475/Sebastian-Kurz-uebernimmt-die-OeVP

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

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Sebastian Kurz, the new ÖVP-leader, in the press conference that ended a few minutes ago.



Let the fun begin !

[Tender Branson]

The influential Styrian ÖVP-governor just said:

"On Sunday, we will elect Sebastian Kurz as our new party leader and we will give him the full powers and freedoms to re-shape the party according to his ideas and to present a new federal team. The press statement by Kurz was refreshing and new elections will be held in the fall and these new elections would be the honest choice."

[Tender Branson]

Are there any significant wings in the ÖVP which Kurz wants to decrease/increase the influence of? I mean, is it mostly personal issues or are there clear policy differences between Kurz and other influential members? I believe, he has been quite keen on the extraterritorial migrant camps and pretty tough on migration in general?

There are several wings within the ÖVP, namely the farmers, the young ÖVP, the workers/employees, the ÖVP-women, the seniors, the businesses and business-owners and self-employed and of course the powerful states and their governors/organisations.

Kurz doesn't have the luxury in the next few weeks/months to push aside representatives of one or the other wing, but needs to be careful to include people from every branch in his new team and also on the ÖVP-lists for the early elections. That's simply how the ÖVP works and always worked. Even though high-ranking ÖVP politicians now say they will grant Kurz more powers to re-shape the party, this will still be hard to do with all the different interests and positions. It will be a first significant test of Kurz's leadership skills. Of course, the last few months were brutal and the infights played a large part in Mitterlehner's resignation and there are also enemies within the party that could be a problem for Kurz. Some of them have a personal problem with him, some are opposed to his more hardline positions on immigration. But in general, the party will line up nicely behind Kurz I guess - with the governors etc. still having enough to say.

Also, the new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 (probably conducted in the last few days):

[Tender Branson]

There's some unfinished business left in the parliament, so Kurz said he's willing to "work" with the SPÖ on these things until the end of June. This is also part of the Greens' plan: keep passing things that were already worked on and that are important to Austrians and then dissolve parliament.

This would mean the election would be held a little later, probably on October 1 - because the election calendar needs to start running 3 months before the election. And I guess the date won't be the same as Germany's: September 24.

[Tender Branson]

Where does Kurz stand in the ÖVP? Is he on the right of the party? And is he a social conservative?

Kurz is like a political chameleon. Nobody really knows where he stands on issues other than the ones concerning his job: foreign policy, immigration and integration.

I found an interview from WOMAN magazine, from 2009, in which the then 23-year old Kurz also talked about some social issues such as abortion (which he personally opposes, prefers adoption but says every woman should decide on her own), in which he supports gay marriage and says he never smoked pot so far because he has asthma and that he had sex for the first time at the age of 15.

https://www.woman.at/a/integrationsstaatssekretaer-sebastian-kurz-woman-interview-294949

Don't know if his views are still the same in 2017, but he will definitely have to take a position on many issues during the summer and fall campaign ...

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is upping the pressure on Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP):

He has started backroom talks with all opposition parties to avoid new elections and to form some kind of minority government instead. And it seems to work: While Greens and NEOS are generally in favour of new elections, they also agree with Kern that it would be better for now to keep on working on solutions that matter to voters. The Team Stronach of course is also against new elections (because they'd lose their well-paid jobs a year earlier). The question just is: how is this "minority" government going to work ?

SPÖ+Greens+NEOS+TS together have 90 seats. ÖVP+FPÖ together have 89 seats. 4 seats are Independents (3 former FPÖ-members, 1 former TS member). These 4 independents are certainly not voting for new elections, because they'd also lose their jobs a year earlier than planned - but could torpedo the minority government when they want to pass laws.

Kern knows that voters do not want early elections, so that's why he wants to keep on working - while he can portray Kurz as the one who blows the government up because of his ego.

Also, Kern called on Kurz today to immediately resign as Foreign Minister. He also threatened to kick out all ÖVP-ministers on Monday ...

[Tender Branson]

  If Kern's idea goes through, then maybe OVP-FPO will get used to cooperating in parliament now and then keep it up after the next election whenever that is.

Yeah, Kern is playing a dangerous game. It's not certain that the FPÖ will end up picking the SPÖ as their coalition partner after the new elections. They might also end up in a coalition with the ÖVP after all, either as largest party - or if Kurz maintains his positive image - as junior partner. If Kurz wins the elections and the FPÖ comes second or third, Strache could retire after 12 years - saying that he has achieved everything he wanted by bringing the FPÖ into government and leaving the Vice-Chancellor post to Norbert Hofer (or someone else, if Hofer wants to run for President again in 2022). Strache would never want to become Vice-Chancellor. So, in this case Kern's chess game would be over and Kurz could declare check-mate because he won the election, entered a Black-Blue coalition and the Kern-SPÖ is pushed into opposition.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The ÖVP's federal committee meeting will start tomorrow at 6pm.

We'll probably know after a couple hours if Kurz was elected party leader and what the ÖVP wants when it comes to new elections and resctructuring of the party.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz has outlined 7 wide-ranging demands to the federal ÖVP-committee tomorrow, as a pre-condition for him taking over as party leader - one of which includes running on an own independent Macron- or VdB-like list, backed by the ÖVP but also other important/influential people. Others include 50% women on his movement's list for the next elections and the ability to shape the list according to his own ideas and not the party's ideas:

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It will be interesting to see if the ÖVP is willing to give him all the powers and the mandate that he wants.

[Tender Branson]

People on the [left-liberal] "Standard" forum are starting to compare Kurz to Recep "Megalomaniac" Erdogan.