Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ?

[Tender Branson]

To be held on October 11.



2010 results:

44.3% SPÖ
25.8% FPÖ

Current polls:

30-35% SPÖ (ca. minus 10-12%)
30-35% FPÖ (ca. plus 6%)

Historical bonus result (1973):

60.1% SPÖ
  7.7% FPÖ

...

Do you think the FPÖ actually manages to turn "Red Vienna" blue ? Or do you think the SPÖ pulls it out again in a phyrric victory ?

[Tender Branson]

I have actually no clue how this will play out ...

Ahead of the 2010 elections, the FPÖ underpolled by 3%. But it doesn't mean that it has to be this way again. In Vorarlberg for example, they overpolled last year and some might actually switch back to SPÖ on election day - especially pissed off SPÖ-voters who are currently flirting with the FPÖ and telling pollsters so but who will hold their noses and vote SPÖ on election day.

But the trend for the SPÖ is worrying ...

[Tender Branson]

The only way that the SPOe redeem themselves is if they increase immigration levels; people are probably unhappy with the centre-left because there hasn't been enough immigration.

You're partly right. The solution to the "problem" of immigration is to draw in more immigrants and naturalize them, so as to drown out the racist vote. This strategy is already starting to pay off in the US. I wish Europe was smart enough to follow suit...

As for the poll question, in case of a tie I always bet on the worst outcome, so FPÖ.

The SPÖ cannot naturalize foreigners on their own. That's the responsibility of the Interior Ministry, which is in ÖVP-hands.

Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems ...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, let's go back to the topic of who's winning and losing the state election.

Anyway, a tough bitchfight between SPÖ and FPÖ should be good for turnout, also because the newcomers NEOS will draw people to the polls.

In 2010, there was already a fight between SPÖ and FPÖ and turnout increased from 61% to 68%, which in times of lower and lower turnouts here would be good news.

Maybe 70% could be reached, which would be good for a city of almost 2 million people. Hamburg for example had just 55% turnout recently.

[Tender Branson]

Tempted to reply, of course, but I think we should follow Hash advice.

If I was mod I would delete both Antonios post and all responses to it (and clean up Tenders posts). That is probably the only way to safe this.

Alternatively Tender could just lock or delete this as it is just a prediction thread and not an election thread.

It's now 50-50 anyway (which I expected), so I'll just lock it ...