325.000 votes still to be counted in OH

[Tender Branson]

All precincts are in but there are

120.000 Outstanding Absentees
205.000 Outstanding Provisionals

http://www2.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=212:52:1169205685152101::NO:::

Obama currently leads by 107.000, so Romney would need to win them by about a 70-30 margin.

Of course, not all of them will be accepted and ruled valid, so Romney's chances are even lower.

[Tender Branson]

What's the best case ?

Obama increasing his margin to 3 statewide ?

[Tender Branson]

For example, of the remaining votes to be counted, 19% are from Cuyahoga when the actual votes cast from Cuyahoga made up only 11% of the OH total.

In Franklin it's 10% vs. 15% for the remaining absentees.

There seem to be much more uncounted ballots from strong Democratic areas alltogether.

So, if we assume that Obama wins the 325.000 uncounted ballots by 58-40-2, then his overall winning margin increases to 50.6-47.7 in the state.

Of course not all of those ballots will be accepted and Obama could get a higher or lower percentage than 58%.

But the chances that Obama comes out of Ohio with a 3% margin are good ...

[Tender Branson]

The best-case-scenario that I can come up with for Obama shows:

51.0% Obama
47.3% Romney

This of course would mean that ALL 325.000 uncounted ballots are included in the final total and Obama wins them by 65-33-2.

That would probably mean that OHIO is more Democratic than the US as a whole, which is currently 50.6-47.9 Obama ...