Peruvian elections 2011

[Tender Branson]

Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

Maybe polls are conducted face-to-face in Peru, not over the phone.

[Tender Branson]

Well, then let's hope that the Polish guy defeats Humala in the run-off - if he really stays second.

[Tender Branson]

Fujimori and Humala have no chance in the Austrian expat vote:

49.5% Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
15.9% Alejandro Toledo
12.7% Luis Castañeda Lossio
11.7% Keiko Fujimori
  9.2% Ollanta Humala

[Tender Branson]

Humala has pulled ahead in the final polls, but it`s still very much a toss-up:

LIMA - Ollanta Humala, a left-wing candidate, has taken a narrow lead over right-wing lawmaker Keiko Fujimori in polls released in the final hours ahead of Sunday's presidential run-off election in Peru.

Peruvian election law prohibits polling firms from publicly disclosing the results of their surveys in the final week of campaigning, though they continue polling for private companies.

A poll of 4,000 people by Ipsos showed Humala ahead of Fujimori by 3.8 percentage points, the first of a batch of recent surveys to break a statistical tie.

Humala has sought to convince voters that he has abandoned a radical past, including ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and would prudently manage one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

Fujimori is trying to distinguish herself from her father, former President Alberto Fujimori, who is in jail for human rights abuses and corruption.

Below are the latest polls, which have margins of error of between 1.4 and 3 percentage points. The polls were conducted by mock vote, where those surveyed filled out and submitted ballots.

SURVEY GROUP FUJIMORI HUMALA

- Datum 49.2 50.8

- Ipsos Apoyo 48.1 51.9

- CPI 49.5 50.5

- Catholic University 48.2 51.8

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43281088

[Tender Branson]

81% or 85% counted (don't know what the difference between "% de actas procesadas" and "% de actas contabilizadas" is):

6,494,970 votes - 50.71% - Humala
6,313,992 votes - 49.29% - Fujimori

Turnout is 85.2% so far.

http://www.elecciones2011.onpe.gob.pe/resultados2011/2davuelta

[Tender Branson]

Why does it take so much time to count the remaining 13% ?

Because Peru is not France and people are sleeping right now ...