MS-PPP: All Republicans ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 54%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Haley Barbour, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 41%
Haley Barbour ................................................ 51%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 48%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 48%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0329915.pdf

The new map:

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[Tender Branson]

Looks about right for Mississippi.

I`m more interested in the Governor results, but I think Phil Bryant will start out with a 20-point lead.

[Tender Branson]

Q12 Do you want Haley Barbour to run for President next year?

Yes.................................................................. 33%
No................................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain................................................... 54%
Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Someone Else/Don't Remember..................... 7%

...

This might be a reason why Barbour does worse than Huckabee. They want him to serve as Governor of their state until the term ends (or even longer).

[Tender Branson]

The key for the GOP is to nail down red states by the Summer and focus all energy on swing states.

This summer or next summer ?

Doesn't matter though. Fact is that Republicans will be bruised until the middle of next year because of the ongoing primary season and numbers will likely not change much until the conventions.

Remember for a few weeks between late August and mid-September of 2008 when McCain soared ahead in North Carolina by double digits? He was leading or tied in New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, ect. Had he been able to keep that (no meltdown) then he could have won or made the electoral vote very close.

Yes, that was the convention bounce phase. After that, in early October normally Democrats wake up and get more engaged and then at the end of October, normally Republicans wake up a bit and close the margin ...

We need to make sure whoever is on the ticket can nail down safe red states like Texas, Mississippi...hold on to red states (Missouri is still trending GOP, Indiana, North Carolina, pull Iowa back, ect) and then focus on Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada.

Of course, but Obama as the incumbent will already have campaign headquarters buzzing in each state by this time next year and his supporters hopefully mobilized, while the Republicans are still battling each other, with no GE infrastructure in place in the states.

[Tender Branson]

I`m more interested in the Governor results, but I think Phil Bryant will start out with a 20-point lead.

Says PPP:

"We'll have our first and quite possibly last Mississippi Governor numbers out tomorrow. Yawwwnnn"

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/52851696027705344

[Tender Branson]

I wonder what the racial breakdown on that question looks like.

About 98% of MS Republicans are White, so you already know the answer.

[Tender Branson]

Better said, out of the 400 Republicans interviewed in this poll, only 4-8 persons are Black.

Big margin of error (even though I think Blacks who are voting Republican are also very religious nuts and their views are not much different from those of the Whites)

[Tender Branson]

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