2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Tender Branson]

Wow, the primary poll by Sooner/Tulsa World sucked big time.

It had Edmondson winning by 16 points and Fallin by 38 points.



As for the GE, the Sooner poll has Askins down by 6 against Fallin, but Rasmussen had her down by more than 20 points ...

[Tender Branson]

Good polls this time by EPIC/MRA for both Governor races and the MI-13 race.

The KS polls by SUSA and Singularis were also good, with SUSA showing Tiahrt narrowing the gap in the final weeks.

If the primary would have been next week, Tiahrt probably would have moved ahead of Moran ...

[Tender Branson]

I´m already waiting for the Rasmussen poll that will come out in the next days showing a 25-point Snyder lead over Bernero ...

[Tender Branson]

Last-minute primary polls:

Colorado (PPP):

Gov: 41-40 McInnis.
Sen: 49-43 Bennet, 45-43 Norton (!).

Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

Gov: 45-24 Lamont, 38-30-17 Foley-Fedele-Griebel.
Sen: 50-28-15 McMahon-Simmons-Schiff.

Georgia (Mason-Dixon):

Gov: 47-42 Handel.

The MN primary numbers (510 Likely DFL Voters):

Dayton: 43%
Kelliher: 27%
Entenza: 22%
Idusogie: 1%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d1f59a92-85c3-4355-93bb-8c888ff8faa0

[Tender Branson]

My predictions:

GA Runoff

Deal: 54.8%
Handel: 45.2%

CT Governor & Senate

Foley: 36.7%
Fedele: 35.9%
Griebel: 27.4%

Malloy: 50.2%
Lamont: 49.8%

McMahon: 51.1%
Simmons: 29.7%
Schiff: 19.2%

MN Governor (Democrats)

Dayton: 38.1%
Kelliher: 34.7%
Entenza: 25.8%
Idusogie: 1.4%

CO Governor & Senate

Maes: 51.4%
McInnis: 48.6%

Bennet: 50.7%
Romanoff: 49.3%

Norton: 51.9%
Buck: 48.1%

[Tender Branson]

Who are people on here rooting for between Bennet and Romanoff?

Next question: Lamont or Malloy, Atlas Forum?

I think it doesn´t really matter, all 4 are acceptable candidates and once the primary is over the folks who backed the defeated should move over to the winner side. If Romanoff had more money, I´d prefer him over Bennet. In CT, I don´t really care, both candidates have made arguments to abolish the state´s death penalty which is fine with me. The Republicans will be destroyed in the GE anyway.

[Tender Branson]

33% in:

Deal: 52%
Handel: 48%

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2010_0810/swfed.htm

[Tender Branson]

With 2% in:

Foley: 46%
Fedele: 34%
Griebel: 20%

Malloy: 56%
Lamont: 44%

[Tender Branson]

54% in:

Deal: 50.9%
Handel: 49.1%

[Tender Branson]

If these results hold and the race remains a tie, Insider Advantage had the best poll (46-46), followed by Landmark (44-42 Deal) and Mason Dixon (47-42 Handel).

[Tender Branson]

If these results hold and the race remains a tie, Insider Advantage had the best poll (46-46), followed by Landmark (44-42 Deal) and Mason Dixon (47-42 Handel).

I project a 53-47 Handel win now and therefore Mason-Dixon will have the best poll, followed by Insider Advantage and Landmark.

[Tender Branson]

First 10% or so reporting in CO:

Romanoff 51%
Bennet 49%

Norton 58%
Buck 42%

McInnis 51%
Maes 49%

As expected these races will be fun to watch in the next hours ...

[Tender Branson]

77% in:

You guessed it!

Deal: 51%
Handel: 49%

Still almost nothing in from Fulton.

[Tender Branson]

Currently, it looks like PPP did a slightly better job than SurveyUSA in Colorado.

PPP got D-Sen. and R-Sen right, but R-Gov. wrong.

SUSA got R-Gov. right, but the Senate wrong.

SUSA also gets MN wrong if trends hold.

[Tender Branson]

Buck overtakes Norton and leads 51-49, with 51% in.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Bill Clinton (supports Romanoff) is still a drag in CO and Obama (supports Bennet) still a win ...

[Tender Branson]

FWIW, SUSA (2 wins, 1 fail) now more accurate in CO than PPP (2 fail, 1 win).

[Tender Branson]

87% in:

Deal: 51%
Handel: 49%

It all comes down to what counties are still counting...

The AP seems to have a lot more in from Fulton than the SoS site, 65%.

[Tender Branson]

83% of precincts reporting:

Deal: 273,348
Handel: 268,192

SoS is coming in faster than WSBTV. Handel has gained about 5,000 votes in the last 3% of precincts. Fulton county is still only at 27%, and she's winning it 26,000-10,000 thus far.

The AP says Fulton is 75% in - with the same amount of votes.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, why does the AP have 2898 precincts and the SoS only 2860 ?

[Tender Branson]

Seems like Deal will have a slight 1000-2000 vote advantage after all is in.

[Tender Branson]

Fulton County is to Handel as Cook County is to JFK.

Exactly, and the turnout in the county may end up beating how it was back on the 20th. Only needs 4000 more votes for that to happen. She's winning it with 70% I'd say.

I think Deal has won. Only 13 precincts left in Fulton. What was left that came in, did not have many GOP voters. And there are 5 precincts out or so in Gwinett, a county Deal is carrying by a bit. So unless there are arithmetic errors, this race I think is over.

Oh, I agree unless GA SOS is correct.

Looks like it ain't - we're up to 66% and nothing changed.  lol

They probably counted the votes and incuded it into the state total, but didn´t update the Fulton percentages ...

[Tender Branson]

Red = Deal
Green = Handel
Grey = Tie

[Tender Branson]

It´s time to check through my predictions:

My predictions:

GA Runoff

Deal: 54.8%
Handel: 45.2%

Actual: Deal 50.2%, Handel 49.8%

CT Governor & Senate

Foley: 36.7%
Fedele: 35.9%
Griebel: 27.4%

Actual: Foley 42%, Fedele 39%, Griebel 19%

Malloy: 50.2%
Lamont: 49.8%

Actual: Malloy 58%, Lamont 42%

McMahon: 51.1%
Simmons: 29.7%
Schiff: 19.2%

Actual: McMahon 49%, Simmons 28%, Schiff 23%

MN Governor (Democrats)

Dayton: 38.1%
Kelliher: 34.7%
Entenza: 25.8%
Idusogie: 1.4%

Actual: Dayton 41%, Kelliher 40%, Entenza 18%, Idusogie 1%

CO Governor & Senate

Maes: 51.4%
McInnis: 48.6%

Actual: Maes 51%, McInnis 49%

Bennet: 50.7%
Romanoff: 49.3%

Actual: Bennet 54%, Romanoff 46%

Norton: 51.9%
Buck: 48.1%

Actual: Buck 52%, Norton 48%

I´m happy, too bad Norton didn´t win, it would have been 8/8.

[Tender Branson]

They might as well call the WY-Dem race for Petersen.  71%, and he leads by 8 points.  Gosar has no chance.

Leslie Petersen is a "she" ...

http://www.peopleforpetersen.com/Biography.aspx