The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

Did you "get" the image?

These are not siamese twin butterflies. These butterflies are fucking.

Ahh, now that you say it ...

(I thought you were posting the picture because August 11 was a holiday, which it was not ...)

[Tender Branson]

From fucking siamese twin butterflies to a new Upper Austria poll by IMAS now:



The ÖVP-Green state government gains, the SPÖ loses and FPÖ/BZÖ are stagnating.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup confirms the Profil minaret poll from yesterday:

52% of Austrians oppose the construction of more mosques with minarets
39% are in favor

The biggest opponents of minarets are men (58% opposition), retirees (57%) and people living in Western Austria (63%). In Vienna, a plurality is in favor (49-37).

53% of Austrians also favor the internment of Asylum seekers, as proposed by Interior Minister Maria Fekter of the ÖVP. 37% are opposed. Among SPÖ voters, 48% support it and 46% oppose it.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/52-fordern-ein-Minarett-Verbot/1653468

Recently the SPÖ has indicated it will likely back the plans of Fekter to inter Aslyum seekers for a longer period of time until their cases are reviewed by the Asylum court and to prohibit these Asylum seekers to escape into illegality.

[Tender Branson]

Federal Gallup/Ö24 poll:

34%  (+5) SPÖ
32%  (+6) ÖVP
19%  (+1) FPÖ
12%  (+2) Greens
  3% (-14) Others (incl. BZÖ)

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Claudia-Schmied-und-Kanzler-als-Gewinner/1653031

[Tender Branson]

More polls out today.

Federal OGM (the best pollster) survey for the newspaper "Kurier":



OGM also says that among "Under-30-year-olds" the FPÖ is 1st.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2031403.php

Styria state elections poll by Gallup for Ö24:

37% SPÖ
37% ÖVP
10% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  4% KPÖ
  6% Others (BZÖ, CPÖ, PUMA)



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wahlkampf-Haeupl-bremst-Strache/1700211

Styria state elections poll by GMK for the Styria SPÖ:

39% SPÖ
38% ÖVP
10% FPÖ
  5% Greens
  5% KPÖ
  2% BZÖ
  1% Others (CPÖ, PUMA)

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/2476135/kopf-kopf-rennen-steiermark.story

Vienna state elections poll by Gallup for Ö24:

48% SPÖ
21% FPÖ
18% ÖVP
10% Greens
  3% Others (BZÖ, KPÖ)



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wahlkampf-Haeupl-bremst-Strache/1700211

[Tender Branson]

In other news, a new Profil poll by Karmasin Motivforschung says that 52% of Austrians say that Muslims are not as tolerant as members from other religions. 35% of Austrians say that Muslims are as tolerant as, for example, Christians. 4% say they are more tolerant than Christians and 9% are undecided.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100911_OTS0006/profil-jeder-zweite-meint-moslems-seien-weniger-tolerant

And, in the city of Graz (Styria) an asylum center was attacked today with explosives:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/world/breakingnews/blast-in-austria-damages-shelter-for-asylum-seekers-no-injuries-102686819.html

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP is now out with 1000s of posters in Vienna showing this:



(It shows a young and hip SPÖ-mayor of Vienna, Michael Häupl, and says: "A fresh breeze for Vienna")

A classical own goal for the Vienna ÖVP in my opinion, because one of the main rules of campaigning is: Never portray your opponent in 1000s of posters as a cool looking guy.

[Tender Branson]

Federal poll by Market for the newspaper "Standard":

27%  (-2) SPÖ
25%  (-1) ÖVP
24% (+6) FPÖ
11% (+1) Greens
  8%  (-3) BZÖ
  5%  (-1) Others

Far-Right => 1st with 32%

A strange poll that contrasts with every other recent poll.

http://derstandard.at/1282979509098/Standard-Umfrage-Bundes-FPOe-fast-gleichauf-mit-den-Koalitionsparteien

[Tender Branson]

2 more polls.

Styria (IMAS for the Kronen Zeitung):



...

Vienna (Gallup for Ö24):

47%  (-2) SPÖ
21% (+6) FPÖ
17%  (-2) ÖVP
11%  (-4) Greens
  4% (+2) Others (BZÖ, KPÖ)

Direct vote for Mayor:

58% Michael Häupl (SPÖ-Incumbent)
18% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
17% Christine Marek (ÖVP)
  8% Maria Vassilakou (Greens)

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today.

Styria/Gallup/Ö24:

38%  (-4) SPÖ
37%  (-2) ÖVP
  9% (+4) FPÖ
  7% (+2) Greens
  4%  (-2) KPÖ
  5% (+2) Others (BZÖ, CPÖ, PUMA)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100918_OTS0003/steiermark-umfrage-in-oesterreich-spoe-knapp-vor-oevp

Federal/Gallup/Ö24:

32% (+3) SPÖ
30% (+4) ÖVP
21% (+3) FPÖ
10% (nc)  Greens
  3%  (-8) BZÖ
  4%  (-2) Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100918_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-und-oevp-verlieren-fpoe-legt-zu

There´s also a OGM trust index for Vienna, which shows the saldo of trust and no trust in various city politicians:



You can clearly see that Vienna is a SPÖ city, their politicians are the most popular.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Vassilakou so mistrusted? I seem to recall a scandal involving her, though I can't remember the details.

The actual numbers for her, according to OGM, are:

30% Trust
50% No Trust

The scandal you mean is probably this:

BTW:

Don´t be too surprised if the Vienna Greens are not doing so well in the October elections.

Yesterday, a prominent Green member of the Federal Council of Austria - Stefan Schennach - changed parties and went over to the SPÖ.

Schennach, from the Vienna Greens, was one of the people closest to Vienna Green leader and frontrunner Maria Vassilakou and also one of the people who knew most about the Green campaign strategy for the upcoming elections. She called Schennach's party change at this time in the campaign a disaster and that she´s very angry about it.

The Vienna Greens are also in deep trouble because they split in 2 of their best districts, Mariahilf and Josefstadt. Now 2 Green lists will run in each of these dictricts, because of internal problems about the ballot-placement of frontrunners in these districts.

I guess most of the FPÖ voters and ÖVP voters have an unfavorable view of her because of the Greens' pro immigration policies (They want foreigners to be able to vote in Vienna elections) and also some parts of the working-class SPÖ might have reservations about her.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls.

Styria (Humaninstitut Klagenfurt)

39%  (-3) SPÖ
36%  (-3) ÖVP
  8% (+3) Greens
  7% (+2) FPÖ
  5% (+3) BZÖ
  3%  (-3) KPÖ
  2% (+1) Others (CPÖ, PUMA)

Direct vote for Governor:

40% Franz Voves (SPÖ-Incumbent)
25% Hermann Schützenhöfer (ÖVP)
12% Gerald Grosz (BZÖ)
10% Werner Kogler (Greens)
  4% Gerhard Kurzmann (FPÖ)
  2% Claudia Klimt-Weithaler (KPÖ)
  7% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/anhang/OTS_20100915_OTS0091.pdf

Seems like the BZÖ is stealing some votes from the FPÖ, but I´m still sceptical that the BZÖ will get more than the 5% needed.

...

Federal poll by Karmasin Motivforschung for Profil:

33% (+4) SPÖ
32% (+6) ÖVP
20% (+2) FPÖ
11% (+1) Greens
  2%  (-9) BZÖ
  2%  (-4) Others

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100918_OTS0016/profil-umfrage-spoe-vor-oevp-faymann-vor-proell

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today by OGM (the best pollster).

Styria state elections:



By 52-37 voters say they want political change.

Vienna state elections:



By 59-31 voters say they want a coalition government, instead of an SPÖ absolute majority.

...

These are far better number for the Far-Right than in previous polls. Also, the SPÖ losses are very likely to continue. They have never won percentage-wise since 2008 ...

[Tender Branson]

There´s a new OGM poll out about the demand-oriented basic income that was introduced in Austria on September 1. Quick overview:

The basic income will be about 1000$ each month for every single-citizen and about 1400$ a month for couples. For every child in the family you get another 200$ a month. This basic income will only be available to Austrian citizens, EU-citizens who work in Austria and foreigners, who have at least worked 5 years in Austria. Asylum seekers and other foreigners are not getting it. That also means that unemployed persons will get at least 1000$ each month from September on. Until now, it did depend on how much you earned in your latest job and then you would get about 60-80% of what you earned. That was bad for part-time workers or low-wage workers. Another good thing is that now 100% of Austrian citizens will have health insurance, up from about 99% before that. For the basic income to be granted, one has to accept job offers from the Labor Agency, otherwise the basic income will be cut by 50% or, if someone repeatedly refuses to take the work offered by the Labor Agencies, it will be cut completely. So, it won´t be a "social hammock" ...

A couple days ago, the ÖVP proposed a policy that would require recipients of this basic income to do mandatory community work after these people are unable to find a real job after 6 months of state-granted basic income. The ÖVP argues that this forced community work prevents people from lethargy in unemployment and encourages unemployed to re-integrate into the labor force, and it would prevent abuse of the new system.

So here are the poll results what Austrians think about the ÖVP idea:





A huge majority of Austrians (76%) think that mandatory work for basic-income receivers is a good idea, just 17% say it´s a bad idea. Voters of all parties support it.

72% also say that this would lead to less abuse of the new system and 82% think it would help unemployed persons to re-integrate into the labor market.

[Tender Branson]

In the Sunday state elections in Styria, octopussy Paul predicts that challenger Schützenhöfer of the ÖVP will defeat the SPÖ of Governor Voves !

Here´s the picture of Paul picking sides:



In a tight race like this, I´d also say that the ÖVP wins, because the SPÖ always underperforms on Election Day.

In other news, FPÖ-leader H.C. Strache is in trouble again, as NEWS reports some of his (young) staffers at campaign rallies are Neo-Nazis:

[Tender Branson]

New state elections poll for the Lower Austria SPÖ:

51% ÖVP
28% SPÖ
12% FPÖ
  6% Greens
  3% Others

New federal OGM poll on the introduction of tuition fees in Austrian universities:

68% Favor
29% Oppose

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100923_OTS0121/format-ogm-umfrage-68-prozent-fuer-studiengebuehren

Currently, the number of foreign students (especially German students) is exploding in our universities (from about 150K in 2000 to about 300K now), because of the so-called German "numerus clausus refugees".

In Germany's universities you are only accepted to become a university student if you have a 2.0 average or so I guess in your final high school exams.

Additionally, many German states have recently introduced tuition fees themselves and because of this, many German students now flee to the great Austria, where we don´t have to pay tuition fees and also don´t have the numerus clausus.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Styria state elections tomorrow:

37.3%  (-1.4%) ÖVP
36.0%  (-5.7%) SPÖ
10.5% (+5.9%) FPÖ
  5.8% (+1.1%) Greens
  5.1%  (-1.2%) KPÖ
  4.3% (+2.6%) BZÖ
  0.7% (+0.7%) CPÖ
  0.3% (+0.3%) PUMA

Turnout: ~ 75%

...

966.900 people will be eligible to vote, an increase of 37.105 (+4%) compared with 2005.

...

If I were living in Styria and able to vote, I´d probably vote for the KPÖ or the Greens, but I´m leaning strongly towards the KPÖ.

...

Here are maps of 2005 election results by town and historical election results in Styria:

 

[Tender Branson]

Anyone else wanna make some predictions ?

The winner gets free cookies ...

[Tender Branson]

What's the fixation in Styria with the KPO?

They received 6.3% of the vote in Styria in 2005, and entered the state parliament for the first time since 1970. And the KPO received 20.75% in the Graz local elections in 2005.

In the rest of Austria the KPO is lucky to receive 1% of the vote.

Again, why is the KPO stronger in the Styrian landtag than everywhere else in Austria? And why is the KPO so strong in Graz?

It's not like Styria or Graz were formerly part of the DDR. Then these results would be understandable.

It has more to do with the person of Ernest Kaltenegger, who was seen as one of the most trusted politicians in Styria. Kaltenegger was not a typical politician, but a charismatic one who refused to accept more than 1500€ a month of pay and gave the rest of his monthly pay to people in Graz who needed it (for example to people who couldn´t afford to pay rents, homeless shelters etc.)

Then, after he got 20% in Graz and more than 6% in the state elections, the Communists also got more money to run their campaigns, that´s why the KPÖ will always be better positioned in Styria than elsewhere in Austria. Claudia Klimt-Weithaler, who followed Kaltenegger as party chair and is also a likeable person, is continuing his legacy.

Also, many blue-collar workers in Northern Styria's steel plants do not see the SPÖ as a real left force that´s working for the Arbeiter anymore, but they see the SPÖVP as just 2 sides of a coin, in bed with the corporates. These folks also don´t trust the Greens as a credible leftist alternative, because their focus isn´t on the workers side either, but more on how many more foreigners they can bring into the country. These folks also tend to support the FPÖ.

So, if there´s any trend in either direction today, you should probably take a look at the towns in the steel areas of Leoben, Bruck an der Mur and Mürzzuschlag. If the SPÖ struggles in their strongholds, they will certainly lose the state to the ÖVP.

KPO is a "reformed" communist party or an old style one?

Old style.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is expected to be a bit lower than in 2005, when it was 76.5%, but it´s the first election in Styria with postal votes and 6% of eligible voters asked for such a postal vote. That would add about 5% additionally to the turnout figures that will be announced later today.

Turnout is lower today, mostly because of really cold weather (only 5-10°C) and it´s stormy and rainy.

[Tender Branson]

Exit polls in about 5 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

1st Exit Poll (16:00):

38.0% SPÖ
37.5% ÖVP
10.7% FPÖ
 5.2% Greens
 4.6% KPÖ
 3.1% BZÖ
 0.9% Others

[Tender Branson]

Another Exit Poll by SORA for the ORF:

38.3% SPÖ
37.6% ÖVP
10.9% FPÖ
 5.1% Greens
 4.0% KPÖ
 3.2% BZÖ
 0.9% Others

[Tender Branson]

The figures above are already based on 48% of the votes counted.

[Tender Branson]

If it remains this close, we won´t have an end result today - because of the postal votes.