2010 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

Oberbergischer Kreis II:

Elected: Löttgen, Bodo (CDU) nc

http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2010/aktuell/dateien/a024lw1000.html

[Tender Branson]

Viersen I:

Elected: Berger, Stefan Heinrich, Dr. (CDU) nc

http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2010/aktuell/dateien/a051lw1000.html

Düsseldorf I:

Elected: Lehne, Olaf (CDU) nc

http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2010/aktuell/dateien/a040lw1000.html

[Tender Branson]

Looking into the districts already counted, it`s interesting to note that while the SPD gained percentage points in the rural areas compared with 2005, it lost quite some ground to the Far-Left (Greens, Left) in the big cities.

[Tender Branson]

Pro-NRW, a FPÖ-like grouping, is also pretty strong in Gelsenkirchen (4-5%)- which suffers from high unemployment IIRC.

[Tender Branson]

SPD picks up another seat from the CDU in Wesel III, by roughly 600 votes or 0.8%.

[Tender Branson]

Another SPD pickup now in Herford I, but by a margin of more than 9%.

[Tender Branson]

Another SPD pickup in Lippe I, by a margin of 10%.

[Tender Branson]

SPD picks up another seat from the CDU in Wesel III, by roughly 600 votes or 0.8%.

Oh no....that's where grandma lives!

Grandma is a CDU voter ?

[Tender Branson]

A few other SPD pickups from the CDU:

Herford II by about 13.5%

Aachen III by about 3%

[Tender Branson]

Wesel II a pickup for the SPD by 4%.

[Tender Branson]

Another SPD pickup in Lippe I, by a margin of 10%.

As goes Lippe I, so goes Lippe II, also by a margin of 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Krefeld I also moves from CDU to SPD by about 6%.

[Tender Branson]

I don´t think we had Märkischer Kreis I yet:

SPD pickup by 2%

[Tender Branson]

And Bonn I goes from CDU to SPD, by 6.5%.

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary final result:

CDU: 2.681.736 votes - 34.6% (-10.3%) - 67 seats
SPD: 2.675.536 votes - 34.5% (-2.6%) - 67 seats
GRE: 940.770 votes - 12.1% (+5.9%) - 23 seats
FDP: 522.437 votes - 6.7% (+0.6%) - 13 seats
LEFT: 434.846 votes - 5.6% (+4.7%) - 11 seats

PIRATES: 119.581 votes - 1.5% (+1.5%)
PRO-NRW: 106.932 votes - 1.4% (+1.4%)
Others: 277.487 votes - 3.6% (-1.2%)

Eligible voters: 13.270.933
Total votes cast: 7.872.862
Invalid votes cast: 113.537
Valid votes cast: 7.759.325
Turnout: 59.3% (-3.7%)

http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2010/aktuell/dateien/a000lw1000.html

[Tender Branson]

New federal ARD/Infratest dimap poll:

CDU: 32% (-2%)
SPD: 28% (+5%)
GRE: 17% (+6%)
LEFT: 11% (-1%)
FDP: 7% (-8%)
OTH: 5% (nc)

Red-Red-Green: 56% (+10%)
Black-Yellow: 39% (-10%)

[Tender Branson]

Just-as-dreadful Volker Bouffier to succeed.

Is he a French ?

[Tender Branson]

The Merkel government is dropping to record lows ...

New Infratest dimap poll released today:

CDU/CSU: 31% (-3)
SPD: 29% (+6)
Greens: 16% (+5)
Left: 12% (nc)
FDP: 6% (-9)
Others: 6% (nc)

Government: 37% (-12)
Opposition: 57% (+11)

[Tender Branson]

2 new Presidential polls by Forsa and Infratest dimap:

Joachim Gauck (SPD/Greens): 40-42%
Christian Wulff (CDU/CSU/FDP): 31-32%
Luc Jochimsen (Left): 3%

Germans want opposition president in blow to Merkel

German voters prefer the opposition's candidate for president -- an anti-communist activist from East Germany  -- to Angela Merkel's choice, a poll showed on Wednesday, dealing a fresh blow to the chancellor.

The Forsa survey showed Joachim Gauck, proposed for the largely ceremonial post by the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens, won the support of 42 percent of Germans asked, compared with 32 percent for conservative Christian Wulff.

A special assembly, made up of lawmakers from the Bundestag lower house and an equal number of delegates appointed by Germany's 16 states, will elect a new president on June 30 after last week's shock resignation of Horst Koehler. He quit after he was criticized for saying foreign military action by the German army also served economic interests.

The vote is shaping up as a big test for Merkel who has been dogged by falling popularity, policy spats in her center-right coalition and accusations of weak leadership both domestically and within the euro zone during the global debt crisis.

A failure by Merkel to push through Wulff, the 50-year-old smooth-talking conservative premier of the state of Lower Saxony, would be widely viewed as a major defeat for her.

Merkel's coalition of conservatives and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) have a majority in the assembly but victory is not certain, especially in view of the public and media mood.

Der Spiegel weekly and top-selling Bild am Sonntag back Gauck, a former Protestant pastor who played an important role in the democracy movement in the communist East. After reunification he won respect when, as head of the archives of the loathed Stasi East German secret police, he oversaw the release of files to victims.

One problem for Merkel is that the assembly delegates chosen by German states are unpredictable as they are not formally aligned to parties.

In addition, some FDP members from eastern German states have said they will not necessarily back Wulff, even though the FDP leadership has given him its blessing.

This is partly a result of growing anger in FDP ranks at the behavior of Merkel's conservatives.

Last month Merkel unceremoniously ditched tax cuts her party had agreed with the FDP in a coalition deal signed just six months earlier. The FDP had fought the election on tax cuts.

She also let the Bavarian conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) torpedo her FDP health minister's plans for a major health reform last week.

Since then, a war of words has erupted with an FDP lawmaker likening the CSU to a destructive "wild sow" only for a senior CSU politician to accuse the FDP of being a "bunch of clowns."

The Forsa poll also showed support for the FDP slumping to 5 percent, down 2 percentage points from the last poll and nearly 10 percentage points since September's election.

It also for the first time put Merkel behind charismatic Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg in personal ratings.

The debate over the president has reflected badly on Merkel.

Not only has strong support for Gauck raised questions about her judgment in proposing a career politician like Wulff but she also faces attack for playing a part in Koehler's departure.

Critics say her failure to defend him from media criticism contributed to his decision to quit, especially as he had been Merkel's personal choice for president back in 2004.

Media have also reported that Wulff's nomination was a blow to Merkel whose first choice, Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen, was blocked by conservative state premiers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65825T20100609

[Tender Branson]

Merkel Job Approval down to 40% now, with 60% disapproving.



Defense Minister Guttenberg is the most popular, with a 68-26 approval rating.

Westerwelle is the least popular, with a 20-74 approval rating (LOL).

Current voting intention for the Bundestag:



Direct vote for President:

[Tender Branson]

The composition of the electoral college is now complete:

Bundestag & States:

CDU/CSU: 496
SPD: 333
FDP: 148
Greens: 129
Left: 124
Free Voters: 10
NPD: 3
SSW: 1

Total: 1244

Bundestag:

CDU/CSU: 239
SPD: 146
FDP: 93
Left: 76
Greens: 68
Free Voters: -
NPD: -
SSW: -

Total: 622

States:

CDU/CSU: 257
SPD: 187
Greens: 61
FDP: 55
Left: 48
Free Voters: 10 (Bayern)
NPD: 3 (2 Sachsen, 1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
SSW: 1 (Schleswig-Holstein)

Total: 622

[Tender Branson]

They didn't poll Frank Rennicke?

The Liedermacher ?

I can already predict how many votes out of 1244 he´ll get:

3

PS: Yeah, I would also like to see him included in the polls. Don´t think he could get more than 3% or so.

[Tender Branson]

New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll, released today:

SPD: 34%
CDU/CSU: 32%
Greens: 16%
Left: 11%
FDP: 3%
Others: 4%

Government: 35%
Opposition: 61%

[Tender Branson]

Ooh, wait a sec. Where'd you get these numbers from?

election.de and wahlrecht.de both have their today poll as
CDU 33
SPD 31
Greens 15
Left 11
FDP 5

I googled it:

http://www.sr-online.de/nachrichten/29/1077582.html

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 30% (-4)
SPD: 27% (+4)
Greens: 18% (+7)
Left: 12% (nc)
FDP: 5% (-10)
Others: 8% (+2)

Government: 35%
Opposition: 57%