Florida 2022 Megathread

[Not Me, Us]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

May also help that Fried is from the Miami area, so that could possibly help her win the big 3 Miami area counties?

Not necessarily.

In my opinion, it'll only help her maybe in Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Parkland, places where it's popular to own the cons without pushing any actual policy. She has zero appeal to the Hispanics and Black people where I live (anecdotally), and it's doubtful that people even know she's from our county.

In fact, this is even backed up by the data, in Miramar, where I live (and this is a 45% Black, 35% Hispanic city), she underperformed Gillum in the 2018 election, despite being from our county.

Miramar Two-Party Results (Population 138,168)

Agriculture Commissioner

[R] Matt Caldwell: 8,987 votes (18.97%)
[D] Nikki Fried: 38,382 votes (81.03%)

D+62.06

Governor

[R] Ron DeSantis: 8,925 votes (18.56%)
[D] Andrew Gillum: 39,173 votes (81.44%)

D+62.88

And my city has lots of Cubans and Venezuelans, so this is a place where the socialism attack should've worked perfectly on Gillum (and it did on Biden, Miramar swung 10% or so to Republicans in 2020) and should theoretically have caused a DeSantis overperformance. But Gillum still performed better than Fried even after those attacks and his socialist image. Bernie also lost against Biden massively here.

Fried similarly underperformed in neighboring Pembroke Pines (Population 168,280) (45% Hispanic and 20% Black).


I wouldn't be surprised if the same held true in Miami-Dade's Black and Hispanic areas.

Crist, Demings, or Messam (who won over 86% of the vote in the Mayoral election) would do much better.

Is Messam considering a run? I thought he was going to run in the special election for FL-20.

[Not Me, Us]

Jfc, who is advising these people? How is this the best Dems can do in a state with 21 million people in it? It's just embarrassing.

[Not Me, Us]

This is pretty unexpected for Fried based on her campaign thus far, but I applaud her for it. This is what Democrats should be running on nationwide. Trying to make the pandemic last forever is not only societally damaging, but a political loser as well. I also don't think this one tweet will have much of effect on the primary. If Crist wins, it won't be because of this.