PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Not Me, Us]

I know so many people have made this joke, but as a New Jerseyan, I am honored that Pennsylvania wants to give us an extra Senator, at their expense.

If Pennsylvania can have a third senator for almost forty years, I don't see why New Jersey can't.

If Dr. Oz is in the Senate for 40 years I think I'll have an aneurysm.

[Not Me, Us]

Oz could easily win, but it should go without saying that he isn't going to win Delaware or Montgomery County.

[Not Me, Us]

Just some musings here on John Fetterman…

As someone who really likes Fetterman and would be excited to vote for him in the general, I’ve always gotten this sense that he feels entitled to the nomination and is not really taking the primary seriously. It seems that any time he’s confronted with tough questions or asked to separate himself from the pack, he points to the fact that he’s won statewide (in a primary and on a ticket with an incumbent Governor in a D midterm) and declines to really say why he’s uniquely qualified to represent PA in DC. I think that’s what’s driven me more towards Malcolm Kenyatta—he seems much more interested in putting in the work and making a case. Granted, he has no other option given that he has far less name ID than Fetterman does, but it’s a literal apples to apples comparison to see how Fetterman and Kenyatta are campaigning.

Look, at the end of the day, Fetterman, Lamb, Kenyatta, and maybe Arkoosh are the only candidates who stand a chance of winning the primary. For my money, Lamb is the worst of the bunch from a policy perspective, but he has still said some good things that I could get behind. But if Fetterman really wants to be the nominee and be a US Senator, he has to stop acting like he’s already been crowned as the heir to the progressive movement once Bernie retires. It’s clear Fetterman has higher aspirations than just the US Senate, and the fact that he’s trying to make his campaign about weed and why he’s not your average politician just shows that he’s not really taking on the big fights. Sure, again, I like the guy and I trust him to represent me in the Senate, but we really have to get this right and I think nominating someone whose entire persona is built around being a carefree progressive with tattoos who doesn’t wear suits isn’t going to cut it. Especially with so much at stake in this election.

He could still win both the primary and the general, but if I was advising his campaign, I’d be pushing for him to be more serious and more humble.

Frankly, I agree, and I say that as a Fetterman supporter. I get the sense that he isn't really taking the race very seriously, which may work for him in the primary given how weak his opponents are, but it won't be able to fly in the general. For his sake, I hope he gets his act together. For now, I think he's the only one who stands a chance in the primary. Lamb's campaign has been pretty much nonexistent so far, while Kenyatta won't have the funding or name recognition to compete statewide. Arkoosh is honestly a strong sleeper candidate, with the right backing she could sweep the Philly suburbs and capitalize off the Philly and WEPA votes both being split by Kenyatta/Street and Fetterman/Lamb. For now though, no candidate seems to be competitive with Fetterman. We've got a long way til the primary though, anything can happen.

[Not Me, Us]

Is this my false impression not being from PA, or is Fetterman indeed just running a medicore campaign? I hope he'll improve, because I don't want Lamb nominated.

He's been running a very lazy campaign, and I say that as a supporter. He's been virtually invisible outside of Twitter and seems to think he's entitled to the nomination. I worry about him as a candidate in the general.

[Not Me, Us]

People still pay attention to James Carville? Lol

Anyway, this seat remains a longshot for any Democrat, and the insistence that only one Democrat (always the preferred one of the person speaking) can win and would outperform any other by a ton is tiresome.

A "longshot" is being a bit ridiculous. The environment was only slightly better for Biden/Dems in November and McLaughlin lost by <1 in the SC race. Not to mention, Oz and McCormick are still bottom tier candidates on the GOP side.

I get that it's a red wave year, but the GOP bench on both races is *bad* and that should not be understated.

I honestly don't think McCormick is a bad candidate. He's more or less generic R, and in this environment, that alone would be more than enough to carry him over the finish line. Rs do have a problem in the Governor's race though, Mastriano and Barletta are pretty atrocious.

[Not Me, Us]

Is Lamb really using "didn't help with infrastructure" as a line of attack? Fetterman's a state LG, how is he supposed to help pass a federal infrastructure bill? Just lazy and dumb, Lamb is such a clown.

[Not Me, Us]

Fetterman raised $3.1M in Q1

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1511331592752484363

Race still seems like Fetterman's to lose at this point, but we really need more polling for the primary.

[Not Me, Us]

This is purely anecdotal, but I've been doing some texting for Malcolm and seeing a lot of support for him, but many people have expressed that they're behind Fetterman because they believe he can win the general. Also seeing some people saying that they're behind Fetterman because he endorsed Bernie.

Any support for Lamb?

[Not Me, Us]

Fetterman's answers to the jogging incident continue to suck, but he's right on almost everything else. Fetterman is quite a unique Democrat, and really can't be pinned to one wing of the party. I think he's our best bet in November.

[Not Me, Us]

Fetterman's answers to the jogging incident continue to suck, but he's right on almost everything else. Fetterman is quite a unique Democrat, and really can't be pinned to one wing of the party. I think he's our best bet in November.

I'd say he's a progressive Dem, isn't he? He's just focussing on the right issues progressive Dems can win broader appeal among the general electorate. He's staying away from the divisive stuff, unlike members of the Squad.

He's certainly a progressive, but he differs significantly in style and tone, and really doesn't associate much with the major figures of that movement. He also does have substantial policy differences with the AOC-types, primarily on the environment. He actually supports fracking, which is by far my biggest issue with his policies, but it is undoubtedly a smart move politically in Pennsylvania. I think he exemplifies the most popular parts of the progressive agenda while avoiding a lot of the pitfalls left-wing candidates run into. Moreover, he's pretty friendly with the Democratic establishment when many progressives aren't.

[Not Me, Us]

I am currently backing Conor Lamb, but I've watched Kenyatta effectively articulate himself and make his case. I could honestly see Lamb come in third. I agree that he really needs to switch this up and differentiate himself in the field. He's giving off too many "generic Dem" vibes and not enough energy brought to the table. I like his calm demeanor and blue-collar sentiment.

However, I could end up voting for Kenyatta if this keeps up. Fetterman, on the other hand, is unapologetic and comes off as callous. He's a terrible debater and can't throw together coherent points. Even still, he's the front-runner and doubt he wins the general. The man is too far left.

Then why is he winning easily? He can't be that bad of a candidate if he is crushing the field.

Purely name recognition and more funds. Nothing more.

Seethe and cope

This is the truth, though. Whether people want to admit it or not, I live in PA, and no one that I know is paying attention to these primaries, on either side tbh. We're less than a month out and it does not feel like there is an election coming out. So I do believe that a lot of Fettermans lead is coming from name rec objectively. I really don't think anything has to do with who is running a good or bad campaign at this point.

Same reason Kenyatta is so low. No one outside of Philly (and even many in the city) don't know who he is.

At the same time, did anyone really know who Mike Stack or Jim Cawley were when they were LG? You or the other PA posters here probably know more but from what I remember from my time in PA I heard almost nothing about them outside of this forum.  

If Fetterman has that high of name recog as lieutenant governor, it would indicate from me that he must be doing something right.

Stack was basically unknown until his and his wife's abuse of their security detail came to light. After that he pretty much became a pariah and came in 5th in the LG Democratic primary as an incumbent. Not sure about Cawley, but the fact that I had to look him up should say something about his notoriety.

Fetterman may be the most well-known LG in the country, his weed tour and post-election beef with Dan Patrick did a lot for his name recognition.

[Not Me, Us]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

I think they just invited any Dem that made the ballot. I do have to wonder why Khalil is bothering to continue this campaign though, it'd be a miracle if she gets more than 1% of the vote.

[Not Me, Us]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

I think they just invited any Dem that made the ballot. I do have to wonder why Khalil is bothering to continue this campaign though, it'd be a miracle if she gets more than 1% of the vote.

Oof I just looked up her website and it looks like a small town therapists blog

She gives me serious Marianne Williamson vibes. She seems like a nice lady, but I can't imagine why anyone would vote for her when there are two actually serious progressive candidates in the race.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1519711853353517058

Fetterman has been endorsed by two Philly ward committees, and these ones are actually real.

[Not Me, Us]

> Mitch McConnell is fixated on ensuring that the 2022 cycle is not a repeat of 2010 or 2012...

I understand the references to 2010 (DE, CO, etc. etc.).  But to what Senate races from 2012 is this referring?

Indiana 2012 GOP primary maybe?

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1526359233121370112?t=z7v4RpLD033X5KADeqxlNA...

Absolutely classless, alarming stuff from the Lamb campaign and his Twitter surrogates. When Fetterman had his stroke you had a prominent pro-Lamb post celebrating it and wishing he didn't recover.

I had an experience similar to this last night. I got a text from the Lamb camp, replied with my support for Fetterman and got back (and I quote) "Has John been discharged from the hospital yet? What kind of medications and physical therapy does he need post-stroke?"

Not quite as transparent, but it's pretty clear what they're trying to do.

[Not Me, Us]

I’ve been poll greeting all day for a local state house candidate, and turnout has been really low at my precinct so far. We’ll see if the lunch and post-work crowd changes that.

[Not Me, Us]

Damn. I really like Kenyatta, but he's young so he can absolutely run again down the line

He's got a bright future, I don't think we've seen the last of him.

[Not Me, Us]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I think it's naive to think that the national GOP isn't going to support Mastriano. He's Trump's endorsed candidate and won the primary in a landslide, all the usual goons will line up behind him. Besides, fundraising isn't nearly as important as it used to be, especially for Republicans.

[Not Me, Us]

Fetterman isn't just slightly deaf, which is different than struggling to comprehend speech. It's pretty obvious he isn't the same as he was pre stroke.

Obviously not, who is? It's been less than six months.

[Not Me, Us]

Just got the email that my absentee ballot has been received by the county elections office, which is a big relief, I always get paranoid that my ballot is gonna get lost in the mail or something. Voted straight ticket D of course.

[Not Me, Us]

Inquirer endorses Fetterman. Unsurprising, given the fact that Oz couldn't even be bothered to sit down with them.

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1581584746521726978

Maybe if he loses a narrow race because he failed to get those endorsements. If so, he might kick himself...

I don't think the Inquirer would have ever endorsed him, even if he did try for it. They're not very friendly to Republicans.

[Not Me, Us]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

[Not Me, Us]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

Several reasons. Recent polls have significantly narrowed in Oz's favor. The national environment is horrendous for our party. President Biden's approval rating has been in the crater for like a year, and as much as I love the man, Fetterman's stroke has really hurt him, as unfair and dumb as that is. Inflation has ravaged Americans' pocketbook, including mine, yet Democrats basically ignore the issue. I like Fetterman, I've supported him since before he even announced, and I proudly cast my vote for him, but I do not believe he will win. He certainly could, but I do believe Oz is the favorite right now.

[Not Me, Us]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

Several reasons. Recent polls have significantly narrowed in Oz's favor. The national environment is horrendous for our party. President Biden's approval rating has been in the crater for like a year, and as much as I love the man, Fetterman's stroke has really hurt him, as unfair and dumb as that is. Inflation has ravaged Americans' pocketbook, including mine, yet Democrats basically ignore the issue. I like Fetterman, I've supported him since before he even announced, and I proudly cast my vote for him, but I do not believe he will win. He certainly could, but I do believe Oz is the favorite right now.

That's fair that you think Oz will win for all the reasons you stated.  But to me, calling it Lean R is a stretch.

Maybe, but I don't use tilts and I think it's closer to lean R than tossup, so that's my rating. I really, really hope I'm wrong, and I'm not a MillenialModerate-esque doomer, but that is where I see the race right now.