Fried won statewide in a bad year for dems in the state. That fact alone makes her a way stronger candidate than Graham, who only represented a small portion of the state for 2 years. I think either stand a decent chance of winning, but Fried is stronger. It's a shame there's no good progressive option though.
The Progressive option did soooooo well it 2018
Nelson lost too, as an incumbent who won in a landslide in 2012. 2018 was a bad year for Florida Democrats regardless of which faction of the party they were in.