NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Senator Incitatus]

Dems seem locked in so far; here's the early vote: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2023-early-vote/2023-new-jersey-general-election-early-vote/#tab-37751

VBM requests are D+39 but returns right now are D+44

I'm seeing +43, but I wouldn't read much into this. In 2021, not a very good year for the New Jersey Democratic Party (but also one in which Republican animosity toward mail voting was higher), this number was +42 in late October.

All of this should also be considered in light of the fact that Republicans have multiple clear pickup opportunities, while Democrats have only one or two, since so many of their voters are in safely Democratic districts and they hold most swing districts.

[Senator Incitatus]

Pretty remarkable that Bramnick’s district is uncontested spending wise. And why are Republicans spending in Newark (not even the Hispanic district)? These are specific to advertising, I think, which is one of the least effective ways of spending in NJ.

[Senator Incitatus]

Pretty remarkable that Bramnick’s district is uncontested spending wise. And why are Republicans spending in Newark (not even the Hispanic district)? These are specific to advertising, I think, which is one of the least effective ways of spending in NJ.

Are these spending numbers reflecting internal data or are Dems lighting money on fire in LD-16? I know sometimes you have some inside info. A Biden +20 left-trending seat does not seem to be easily winnable for the GOP but maybe Dems are spending for a reason.

Like my post said, I have questions about what this is spending on.

Because advertising in New Jersey (especially on television) is so expensive, it's more cost-effective to pour money into canvassing/pamphlets, internal polling, etc. Advertising in New Jersey is really a fat-tail phenomenon, meaning that when one campaign is outspending the other by a lot, that party will be the only one spending on advertising. And on the other end, you'll also see particularly vain candidates burn money on advertising because they like to see their own faces/hear their own voices. Not naming names, but I'd guess that's where the Republican money in Newark is going.

And even if this is an accurate chart of total spend by campaign funds, a lot of the spending in NJ is done by the county and state parties, which may cover multiple campaigns at once and wouldn't show up on an itemized chart. That's why the state has seen historic upsets, like Durr last cycle, Bill Baroni in 2003 come apparently out of nowhere at all. They were putting in the work in ways that wasn't showing up on expense reports.

I don't really doubt at all that NJDP is outspending the Republicans, maybe even 2- or 3-to-1, but this chart inaccurately implies that the Republicans (and Democrats in the Somerset-Union district) aren't running a campaign whatsoever. That's all I wanted to ask about.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

The 4th district seems to be heavily favoring the Republicans, at least in the top-billed Senate race.

The 11th is probably a toss-up for both seats, and Republicans have a decent shot in 38.

But I still have a hard time seeing 14 or 16 flipping, as they’d need for control. As I mentioned in another thread, demographic trends in that area remain brutal for Republicans.

[Senator Incitatus]

I am polling in multiple legislative seats this cycle but am bound by a stronger than usual confidentiality agreement so can't share much - but what I can say (as I'm not involved in the race) is that what is left of the Norcross machine is on an absolute warpath against Durr in the 3rd district.

Yeah, they've basically launched an entire campaign of attack ads against him highlighting he liked on Facebook circa 2010–17.

[Senator Incitatus]

Here is one of the ads I have ever seen:

[Senator Incitatus]

The Dems just didn't want to go for the North Jersey Biden/R districts. To be fair, the incumbents are very strong RINOs. Overall, I don't think more than a half-dozen assembly and two Senate seats flip and it's very possible nothing flips either way. Dems are not losing LD-16, this is not 2014 and Biden won it by 20.

Agreed on LD16. I think there are still a broad range of outcomes and I could see the Democratic candidates for Assembly in LD21 winning by accident, even alongside Republican gains elsewhere (though I ultimately think Bramnick is too savvy to let that happen). Low turnout always means opportunity for surprises.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ballots requested: 918,435
Dem: 526,835 (57.4%)
Rep: 169,927 (18.5%)

Ballots returned: 199,939
Dem: 132,299 (66.2%)
Rep: 43,641 (21.8%)

Dem return rate: 25.1%
Rep return rate: 25.7%

Sounds like decent returns so far Democrats.

Traditionally these numbers have been pretty much meaningless outside of Nevada.

To the extent these numbers mean anything at all, it's a slight but not significant marginal improvement by attrition for Republicans versus their banner year in 2021.

For reference, from October 22, 2021:
Ballots requested: 941,020 ↓ 22,585 to 918,435
Dem: 533,189 (56.7%) ↑ 0.7% to 57.4%
Rep: 169,419 (18.0%) ↓ 0.5% to 18.5%

Ballots returned: 352,223 ↓ 152,284
Dem: 227,786 (64.7%) ↑ 1.5% to 66.2%
Rep: 43,641 (20.1%) ↑ 1.7% to 21.8%
Democratic Margin: 184,145 ↓ 95,487

Dem return rate: 42.7% ↓ 17.6% to 25.1%
Rep return rate: 41.8% ↓ 16.1% to 25.7%

You can literally read anything (and therefore nothing) into this. It's meaningless until we see how many people show up on Election Day.

[Senator Incitatus]

No because:

You can literally read anything (and therefore nothing) into this. It's meaningless until we see how many people show up on Election Day.

and furthermore it's not taking into account where the votes are coming from. A turnout dropoff in Safe D seats or turnout surge in Safe R seats wouldn't impact the overall results.

In fairness to Duke, I only amended my comment after the initial draft seemed too optimistic. I wouldn't read anything into this at all except that we don't know what we don't know yet.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

I may have misinterpreted it, but the fact that I am so confused by it kind of suggests a very muddled message. It was going for some kind of shock that Democrats passed a bill like that.

It's also a really desperate ploy for a state party that's supposed to be above the culture war bulls***.

I'm still not really sure which part you misinterpreted as pro-trans, but this has been a pretty major issue in the campaign thus far.

[Senator Incitatus]

Im more interested in Unaffilated voters. We didnt get exit polls from 2021, but its not hard to guess that those voters were a reason Murphy almost lost. Seems like their ballot return rate has dropped off more than Dems or Reps.

As you would expect for an off-off-year.

[Senator Incitatus]

Head of polling at FDU:
[tweet]

This is one part of the reason I'm confident Republicans can flip the fourth and explains why Vin Gopal looks like he's in a cold sweat in every picture taken of him recently.

[Senator Incitatus]

We're getting a poll from them Wednesday or Thursday, although I don't have a particularly favorable opinion of FDU polls. But it'll be nice to have a data point.

They were one of the few that overestimated Murphy in 2021 (as opposed to just underestimating Ciattarelli), though not outside their margin for error.

[Senator Incitatus]

Local control is a huge thing in New Jersey, particularly in Bergen County. People are pretty hostile to things like municipal consolidation (even though it's an obviously good idea), so I wouldn't necessarily take a poll showing support for "parental control of schools" to mean that the GOP's messaging on this issue is effective. This is also one of those issues where how you present it is going to matter a lot. Someone who is not very tuned-in to politics and isn't aware of all of the culture war nonsense, is probably going to just understand the question to mean what it means. It doesn't necessarily mean they're gun-ho about book bans.

This is the second post in this thread actively confusing the issue and ignoring the real softball that has been thrown to Republicans. There's nothing going on involving "book bans" and there's no question which side of this issue is the "local control" side. Nobody is pretending otherwise except in these comments.

The Murphy administration is actively suing local school districts. They have taken an explicit and aggressive position that school districts cannot legally adopt a policy requiring school officials to inform parents if their child changes their gender expression, because this policy would amount to harming children. (And while the legal issues are being worked out in the courts, other school districts have rescinded less stringent parental notification policies for fear of being sued.)  It's the most aggressive pro-trans stance anywhere in the country and doesn't sync with local control no matter how you cut it. Murphy has chosen his position, and he's standing by it with no spin. (Honestly, pretty refreshing.)

Legislative Democrats notably aren't standing by Murphy on his equity-in-education agenda, so the question isn't really how this issue polls but how effectively candidates can distance themselves from it. It shouldn't be too hard in theory.

[Senator Incitatus]

I just think that every moment the New Jersey Republicans are talking about this niche, complicated crap it's a moment taking away from what is usually a very effective winning message focused on cost-of-living and property taxes.

It's not niche nor complicated. The Attorney General of New Jersey sued school districts to stop them from informing parents about their children and is very proud of it. It was front page news across the state, and opposition to Platkin's suit has been a popular core to the Republican platform ever since. Basically the only person going to bat for him is Murphy.

Meanwhile, Democrats, from what I've seen, are touting the anchor benefit program (something Murphy should have pressed more in 2021). Aren't "kitchen table issues" supposed to be more resonant?

Their main focus is abortion. StayNJ is probably their second plank, but it had bipartisan support, doesn't do anything at all until 2026, and isn't actually guaranteed to go into effect at all.

Murphy also couldn't campaign on it in 2021; they only proposed and passed it this year. It was largely a response to his shock margin.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/parental-involvement-in-school-curriculum-is-huge-election-issue-and-favors-gop-poll-says/

The FDU poll

Democrats have an 8 point lead, 37%-29%.

However, theres a portion where they turn it into a push poll and ask about the parents right issue, then the top line question and it drops to a 1 point lead. I belive its a different group because it's intially a 16 point lead(not the 8 point lead).

A generic statewide ballot gives Democrats a 37%-29% advantage over Republicans in races for the legislature, although most districts do not have competitive races.   But among independents, the generic ballot is a dead heat: 16% for Republicans and 18% for Democrats, with 53% still undecided.

Among all residents, those not asked about parental involvement first give Democrats a 42%-26% edge, but when primed, Democrats lead by just one percentage point, 33%-32%.

I dont quite understand what was done here.

David Wildstein butchering English and statistics again. Just read the poll release, which he essentially copy and pasted while removing clarifying terms: https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-parental-control-arguments-hit-democrats-hard-in-nj-legislative-races/

Overall Ballot: 36-27
    Unprimed Ballot: 44-26
          Unprimed Independents: 28-8
    Primed Ballot: 33-32
          Primed Independents: 8-24

Overall Independents: 18-16

Wouldn’t read much into this. The issue clearly favors Republicans, but messaging in NJ is hard and the race will still come down to turnout. The baseline favors the Democratic Party (duh).

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

[Senator Incitatus]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

I've kind of just come to expect that. It seems like my state just always likes being counter to its Governor in off-years.

I think it's kind of nice for states like New Jersey and Louisiana to have a little detachment from national politics. I wish it didn't come at the expense of turnout/engagement overall, but it keeps things a little more sane than they otherwise would be.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ah yes, a PPP poll commissioned by the state teachers union. A totally unbiased and accurate source that we should totally trust, right?

Average it with the FDU push poll, I say.

The reality is probably somewhere in between. I can see the policy being unpopular overall, but not exactly something that will motivate voters who aren't already staunch Republicans.

As far as issue-testing polls, the FDU poll is clearly better because it adopts (whether accurate or not) the messaging of the party doing the framing. The NJEA poll uses messaging that might work as a counter to that in private conversation, but which nobody is actually running on. The first mover wins here.

[Senator Incitatus]

We have updated data for today, so I'm updating the 2021 comparison from the second page of this thread. Again, the baseline data here (i.e., the numbers before the arrows) is from October 22, 2021:

Ballots requested: 941,020 ↓ 17,036 to 923,984
Dem: 533,189 (56.7%) ↑ 0.5% to 57.2%
Rep: 169,419 (18.0%) ↓ 0.4% to 18.6%

Ballots returned: 352,223 ↓ 98,997 to 253,226
Dem: 227,786 (64.7%) ↑ 1.2% to 65.9%
Rep: 43,641 (20.1%) ↑ 1.5% to 21.6%
Democratic Margin: 184,145 ↓ 72,129 112,016

Dem return rate: 42.7% ↓ 11.2% to 31.5%
Rep return rate: 41.8% ↓ 9.9% to 31.9%

Things improved slightly for Republicans over the past few days, but again, this tells us very little. Maybe the Republican enthusiasm gap has increased versus 2021.

[Senator Incitatus]

Eh, I don't know if that's likely; seems more likely than not that Dems may gain a seat, especially with them going on a rampage specifically in the Durr seat.

I'm very glass half empty when it comes to South Jersey's recent voting habits. But we'll see.

Norcross is definitely going no-holds-barred (including some of the shadiest-while-still-legal tactics I've ever seen) in an effort to regain some power. (Keep in mind part of how he got where he is was picking up the lone Democratic gain in 1991. A smaller majority or even minority with a greater percentage of Norcross votes is possible.) I think there's a possible world in which they gain Durr's seat while losing Gopal's, but more likely Norcross is overcome by inevitability in both the competitive South Jersey seats.

[Senator Incitatus]

It's still unlikely that Democrats will actually lose their legislative majorities, but by God if they aren't trying: [tweet]
Even Murphy came out against this.

I don't see how one Essex suburb can be blamed on the Democratic Party when Murphy has denounced it; their problems are bigger than and separate from this.

[Senator Incitatus]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

Where are you getting the 2021 numbers? I’ve been looking but haven’t been able to find a point of comparison.

[Senator Incitatus]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

Where are you getting the 2021 numbers? I’ve been looking but haven’t been able to find a point of comparison.

TargetSmart has registered voter totals for comparison-
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2023?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22registeredParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D

Thanks!