Can the NJGOP win post-Roe?

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https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

My current generous guess is they pick up three Senate seats (4, 11, 12) but it only takes two more moderate surprises (out of 14, 16, 38). Assembly is a shorter path but has the same tipping points. It's not totally crazy for Murphy to be on guard.

The national Republican Party is unpopular but the reasons why are complicated. Their real problem is that the state actually has a wide range of political diversity, so appeals have to be done on a by-district basis, and campaigning that way is prohibitively expensive in the state. 1991 is fading from memory, but they were able to win a wave because they had a unifying statewide issue which was both immediate and obvious (and local media hadn't been lobotomized yet).

[Senator Incitatus]

To return to the heart of the issue at hand, abortion as a vote-mover in the state is highly overrated; New Jersey is not pro-life by any means, but it is still a state with a significant number of Catholic swing voters and extremely liberal abortion laws which are not really under threat. (If anything, they're being further entrenched.) The median voter probably thinks New Jersey's abortion laws should be slightly more restrictive if informed and pressed on the issue, but it isn't high on the list of priorities for anyone but a fringe on either side. Unless a candidate makes a big deal about it, few voters look at the ballot with abortion on their mind.

New Jersey elections are divided along ethnic-racial lines, and the real question is whether Hispanic assimilation and realignment in the state outpace class realignment among whites. I have mixed views on this.

[Senator Incitatus]

It was a generous prediction by design, but I’ll temper a few of your points:

• LD-11 is nothing like a safe seat in the present environment. (You didn’t say it was, but I want to reinforce that I’m more game-planning than predicting here.) It didn’t get particularly more Democratic; those are both incredibly small towns compared to the district anchors in Colts Neck, Freehold, and Ocean.
• Dnistrian is a heavily connected fundraiser who was the top recruit on a promise to self-fund, which is presumably why he isn’t spending yet. Gopal is outspending 3-1 but these are still low numbers; the anticipation is that Dnistrian will eventually pour in cash to make up the difference. I agree that doesn’t bode particularly well for the Assembly Republicans though, since the primary effect is to unify the Gopal ticket.
• Gopal drew a lot of grief recently for his bill to prevent Shaun Golden from serving as county sheriff and party chair simultaneously, which brought about a weird coalition of moderate opposition but aligned him with ultraconservative talk radio host and 2025 candidate Bill Spadea. He eventually had to withdraw the bill. I think this probably hurt his image as a non-controversial millennial and fueled backroom moves against him which are yet to play out.

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How easy would it be for New Jersey Dems to switch the timing of elections to even years?

It would require a constitutional amendment, but it doesn’t serve their interests anyway. New Jersey incumbents are incredibly strong, in part due to off-year elections, and personal power matters more to them than partisanship, especially given the very slim chance Republicans take either chamber.

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Do Republicans have a chance to take the State Senate? I saw some recent polling I found concerning.

I’d be interested to see that polling but I’d say it’s <30% and with a fat tail at the low end of that. I’d expect a 2-3 seat gain but don’t see how they win districts 14, 16 or 38.

One thing that’s extremely interesting to me that I haven’t seen explained yet: the no-name Republican got more primary votes out of the Hispanic wards of Newark than the Majority Leader. Results are unofficial but that would shock me if true.

[Senator Incitatus]

One thing that’s extremely interesting to me that I haven’t seen explained yet: the no-name Republican got more primary votes out of the Hispanic wards of Newark than the Majority Leader. Results are unofficial but that would shock me if true.

The explanation is that the DOS made an error (shocking, I know...). Official results from the Essex County ENR site show that Teresa Ruiz (D) got 3,394 primary votes in Newark while Maritza Mathews (R) got...196.

Thanks; glad to know. I can stop trying to figure out who the hell Mathews is.

[Senator Incitatus]

There's no way the GOP is winning the state senate. LD-16 was once GOP leaning but that ship sailed when Trump won.

I agree with the conclusion (the district is going to be strongly Democratic) but somehow opposition to Trump feels less salient despite him running an active campaign. Maybe because Republicans can credibly claim to want another candidate to win.

Anyway, the real decider here (and in 14) is the growth of the reliably Democratic South Asian vote.