2024, the Tories won’t call an election they know they are going to lose - and they will want memories of the last few months of catastrophe to fade.
I think this is a far riskier and stupider approach than they realize, and therefore the one they will take.
Eh, current polling shows them getting wiped out. I’m not sure there’s much of a risk to waiting at this point, I don’t think people can get any angrier at them than they are now.
On the doorstep the only people they have left are the very elderly who’ve voted for them their whole lives, and even they are pretty disenchanted.
Sure it could get better…but I don’t see any thing they’ve done so far that would bring people back.
Current polling does show them getting wiped out, and that's without needlessly and selfishly delaying a popularly-demanded election (and a bunch of those very elderly dying off).
The main danger I foresee is a more credible party to their right emerging on the argument that the Tories and their economics have flatly failed. If they're polling low enough for long enough, that proposition suddenly has wings. And if a global crisis is on the doorstep, the low polling will start to look rosy.
Poll
