OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Senator Incitatus]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

[Senator Incitatus]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

Is there any chance that Menendez could lose a primary?

Only if certain county parties (namely Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergen, Camden and Middlesex) all rally around a single opponent. The county line is very powerful in NJ.

I mean, alternatively, Menendez could simply lose Essex and be pretty much done in. The rest (except Hudson and possibly Bergen) would domino from there, and they wouldn't have to get behind one candidate. He would probably withdraw rather than run and lose, but he's not winning with just one or two counties when he faced a scare with all of them. Even Hudson might betray him, depending on what goes on with DeGise.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems like it would be advisable for LaRose to run for Governor in 2026.

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Not seeing how Dolan is more electable than LaRose; both have a strength with marginally Republican voters.

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LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

[Senator Incitatus]

LaRose might be problematic in a general given how he's the one tied the most to the unpopular issues. I could see a scenario where Trump wins Ohio by 10 and Brown beats LaRose.

According to the new Emerson poll released today, Brown's outrunning Biden by 11 points against LaRose. Of course, it's Emerson, so it's probably trash, but even that outperformance might not be quite enough.

How are people reading a poll with an incumbent at 35% as anything other than a likely flip? Brown isn’t running ahead of Biden; he’s running behind. The Republican nominees are just running much further behind Trump because they have much lower name recognition.

Because there's lots of Dem-leaning groups that are undecided, particularly young people and black voters.

And self-evidently a very large number of Trump voters, who are not a Democratic-leaning group.

[Senator Incitatus]

I can’t believe Moreno wasn’t attacked hard for being pro Palestine

Was he? Considering Max Miller is his son-in-law…

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Brown will have a solid shot and can win if he emphasizes the issue of experience, but he is by no means a clean favorite.

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Good chance Moreno will be the candidate where Dem interference in Republican primaries finally backfires on them.

Wasn’t that candidate Donald Trump?