2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Senator Incitatus]

What is Murray's final primary percentage going to be in Washington? 52? 51? Any reason to expect she'll tick up in the final returns?

I fully think she'll exceed that number in the general and win without much trouble, but that result more than the MN special indicates to me that we're still in for a Republican year.

[Senator Incitatus]

What is Murray's final primary percentage going to be in Washington? 52? 51? Any reason to expect she'll tick up in the final returns?

I fully think she'll exceed that number in the general and win, but that result more than the MN special indicates to me that we're still in for a Republican year.

What's been really strange is primary turnout has generally indicated solid performance for the GOP yet most D v R special elections have had Ds doing quite well. I wonder what could account for this discrepency?

Is that the case? It obviously happened in Nebraska but clearly not in the Texas or California specials. It's too early to say that Minnesota will be a clear over-performance for either party and it'll be measured from two very different baselines (Trump margin vs. Hagedorn margin). Right now it looks like Nebraska is a strong outlier.

I admittedly haven't paid much attention to state specials, which I tend to think are less predictive. I know that Democrats beat expectations in that Maine special, but I could type a whole page on how New England state legislative special elections are not to be trusted.

[Senator Incitatus]

Early and no Olmsted vote in, but worth noting how poorly the Grassroots candidate is doing (<1%). They got 5.8% in the district in 2020, probably costing Democrats the seat. Could be a good sign for the Democratic Party throughout the state, even if they lose the special big.

Weird how almost all of the vote for the primary is in but so little is in for the special. Assume they're operating under completely different systems.

[Senator Incitatus]

Also appears that Minnesota Democrats have won the turnout race big, unless I'm missing something. That's the first real win for Democrats in turnout anywhere that could be competitive.

[Senator Incitatus]

Also appears that Minnesota Democrats have won the turnout race big, unless I'm missing something. That's the first real win for Democrats in turnout anywhere that could be competitive.

The disparity between MN and WI is.... pretty shocking, honestly.

Maybe it's to do with the special election (just saw your post in that other thread, which I think is right) and Omar's competitive race.

edit: That actually seems unlikely. The differential is higher in St. Louis County than statewide.

[Senator Incitatus]

We might have some surprises for Alaska I believe

Is there a real chance that Peltola actually comes out on top here?

There's an outside chance.  I would be surprised if it happened, but it wouldn't be the most shocking result we've ever seen.

Crazy how much more common Begich-Peltola-Palin appears to be than Palin-Peltola-Begich. It's not like Begich is a moderate.

[Senator Incitatus]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

Insane take. Getting Liz Cheney out of Congress has dramatically reduced the probability of another such event. Getting her out of the country would be agreeable as well.

[Senator Incitatus]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

Insane take. Getting Liz Cheney out of Congress has dramatically reduced the probability of another such event. Getting her out of the country would be agreeable as well.

You’ll have to explain that one.

J6 was the product of multiple generations alienated by politicians of the Cheney variety, including—perhaps most prominently—her father. The people of Wyoming will be more adequately represented in 2023 and hopefully less likely to resort to those means outside the ordinary political process which dispossessed people have always resorted to in these situations. And I am thankful for that.

The Cheney family are despicable enough that I would support their exile, which would further ensure they can no longer interfere with the American political process, however feeble their latest effort has been.

The user in question has trashed democracy on Discord many times and very clearly celebrates recent anti-democratic movements in this country.

I support rule by, of, and for the American people. I am here tonight celebrating an overwhelming democratic choice of Wyoming Republican voters. Or are you denying the results of this election represent the choice of the people?

[Senator Incitatus]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

Insane take. Getting Liz Cheney out of Congress has dramatically reduced the probability of another such event. Getting her out of the country would be agreeable as well.

Supporting a cult of personality (and one that attempts to overturn the government) is one of the most antithetical viewpoints in opposition to the values established by the Constitution. It is tantamount to treason.

The Constitution was designed specifically to support the cult of personality around George Washington. Regardless, I do not support any such cult today. (As I have made clear as recently as today.) I know of no man who has spent more than 10 minutes in our capital that measures up to Washington, Lincoln, McKinley, or Roosevelt.

The Constitution should largely be re-written for today's weaker men or to foster the type of society that would produce a worthy successor. The present situation is untenable but will be sorted out within our lifetimes.

[Senator Incitatus]

Cheney takes Teton as expected. Anyone ever been there?

[Senator Incitatus]

I want to remind people that there's a reason Trump couldn't unseat Kemp or Raffensberger or even Newhouse, and no other anti-Trump incumbent even came close to this margin of defeat. Liz Cheney is a deeply horrible human, and anti-Trump types who make her their champion will only justifiably deepen Trump's support in the same way the Lincoln Project did. Just find a nice Democrat.

[Senator Incitatus]

Is Bien from Platte County? He's winning it pretty strongly against Gordon (not that it matters now).

Presuming Bien ran on COVID?

[Senator Incitatus]

Palin’s always been more pro-female candidates than not. She probably did put Peltola as her second choice, especially since the alternative was Begich.

Sincere "girlboss feminism" is a common trait among woman Republicans, but they tend to be somewhat quieter about it than woman Democrats.

[Senator Incitatus]

“The most recent data point in a set of six is a definite outlier.” is certainly one form of statistical analysis.

Seems rather likely, as others have said, that the long-going shift among suburban, educated whites (who historically turn out at relatively high rates) at least partly explains the decreasing Republican turnout advantage. Obviously, changes to voting procedures explains a large part of 2020; probably most of it.

[Senator Incitatus]

Dems do have a heavily contested and highly visible statewide primary in Florida, whereas Republicans do not. It's one of the few states with that situation, so it's not surprising it appears like Dems are fired up.

These numbers don’t read “fired up,” to me in light of the massive Republican shift to Election Day voting that has occurred since 2020.

[Senator Incitatus]

f**k it, I'm calling NH-1 for Leavitt

She's beating Huff Brown in Portsmouth and running even with Mowers in Manchester. I know it's early with so much of the vote out but when you're running up the margins everywhere else and running even on their home turf that's a good sign.

How's she doing in New Jersey?