2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Senator Incitatus]

Dean Heller and Crescent Hardy probably should have just stayed home.

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What is Robertson like? I know Peters is totally insane but I don't know much about Robertson

Based only on his campaign website, I'm shocked he won.

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What is Robertson like? I know Peters is totally insane but I don't know much about Robertson

Based only on his campaign website, I'm shocked he won.

Can you expand on that?

You can usually tell which candidates are well-funded and/or serious about running by the quality of their site. Robertson's is just poorly assembled. Not bottom-of-the-barrel but clearly he or someone close to the campaign cobbled it together with whatever tools the NRCC makes available to any candidate.

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I'm surprised Hunt isn't doing better

Race ultimately turned into a regional Columbus-Thomasville split, and Hunt being perceived as a carpetbagger hurt him.

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I'm guessing this is all early vote in Oklahoma? Any chance Mullin avoids the runoff? I would've guessed that Shannon is the more base-friendly candidate, relatively speaking, and so he'd gain in day-of votes. Seems unlikely that Holland will leapfrog Shannon.

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Fun stuff going on in Mullin's district, where there's a gap of just under 4% between first and fifth place, and the sixth place candidate is leading in the district's largest county (with some votes there still outstanding).

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Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

[Senator Incitatus]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

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Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

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Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

Yes, according to 538.

Thanks; bodes well for Kobach and gives Yes a fighting chance.

[Senator Incitatus]

Are the partial results in Kansas early-only? That would make some sense.

They must be, because if not, No would be on track to win with more than 60%.

IMO this wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Ballot questions can have landslide results depending on how the voters interpret the language.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looking forward to Greitens losing every single county.

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I’m stunned by these results so far , as this is far worse than I thought it would be

Tbh, I thought this was going to be fairly close until I saw that the amendment didn't even include exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. That's when I realized it was going to go down in a landslide (thankfully).

The amendment wasn't actualy a straightforward directly ban abortion law, it would just remove the protection granted to it by the Kansas supreme court and allow the legislature to pass their own law.

But, as I said earlier, those nuances are lost on voters.

For all the intellectual criticism some might have for "wishy-washy" positions on abortion, those are in fact more popular than "absolutist" ones, among voters. In a referendum, pandering to voters by making your position look reasonable is important to win.

Your point is right but I've always made the case that the rape exception is consistent with the intellectual case for an abortion ban, because abortion is child neglect rather than murder. It is difficult to argue the parental duty attaches in the case of rape.

[Senator Incitatus]

Also I hope this shows Republicans that banning abortion tends to be a losing issue, especially extreme bans with no exceptions. In most state legistlatures where they've banned it, they have an iron grip on state government that won't be goign away in 2022 but in states like TX they should be careful going forwards.

The only lesson this will (and probably should) teach Republicans is not to put issues directly to the voters.

[Senator Incitatus]

Meijer doesn't appear to necessarily be toast at all in MI-03 based upon a Kornacki assement I just watched....

Mind sharing the details? If the Kent vote is early, this appears entirely consistent with my expectations for a Gibbs win.

[Senator Incitatus]

Kobach now trails.

Also just finding out there's a Candice Miller who isn't Candice Miller running in Michigan.

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Kunce is hanging tough in Missouri. Not really notable now that Greitens is gone, but impressed by him.

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Mod Hat ON: Keep it civil, please.

Sympathies to the mods tonight, who presumably are seeing a lot from posters I have on hard ignore.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looking forward to Greitens losing every single county.

Sadly looks like he will steal a couple of bootheel counties.

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This overreaction might age terribly, but who cares: If this Midterm becomes an election about abortion I don't see how Democrats can lose.

This was already extremely unlikely, but after tonight it is nearly impossible.

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I do think No is going to win at this point, but I think some of you are having extreme overreactions to the margin so far; I expect it will narrow significantly.

edit: At this point, No was up something like 67–33%.

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I do think No is going to win at this point, but I think some of you are having extreme overreactions to the margin so far; I expect it will narrow significantly.

What makes you expect that? It’s certainly not the voting patterns thus far.

It literally narrowed by a point in the minute since I posted this. There's a lot of election-day vote still out.

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Are we getting results from Arizona?

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This is a very male heavy forum and I think some of us, perhaps myself included, underestimated just how angry so many women are right now.

You're not giving this forum's male users enough credit for their remarkable ability to sympathize with women.

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So far it’s been a bad night for the MAGA nuts

Bold thing to say before AZ reports.