2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Senator Incitatus]

To have a shot, Dolan is going to have to put up similar margins in Cuyahoga as he's getting in Franklin.

Also, Green up big in Gary. LaPorte should go big for Milo.

[Senator Incitatus]

To have a shot, Dolan is going to have to put up similar margins in Cuyahoga as he's getting in Franklin.

And suddenly, it appears he is—even better, 39-18 over Vance. Vance will need to stem that in Lake, Summit, and Medina. I'm assuming 30-20 margins the other way in Dayton and Cincinnati, based on what he's getting in the region.

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Dolan being up pretty solidly in Dayton is a surprise to me.

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there are counties where Dolan is trailing Timken lol

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Vance jumping up to 85¢ on PredictIt.

edit: 91¢

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[Wasserman tweet]

A few candidates have lost this way: Luther Strange, Russ Fagg, Nick Freitas.

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Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

People saw Dolan's surge in the polls and—although his was admittedly bigger—completely ignored that Vance was also surging at the same time.

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

People saw Dolan surge in the polls and—although his was admittedly bigger—completely ignored that Vance was also surging at the same time.

Personally, I just found the Dolan growth more interesting since it seemed to come out of nowhere (though I am sure there are reasons I just don't know about). Vance got the Trump endorsement, so his growth is easier to explain. Vance probably wins since the sort of pro-Trump base voters (who probably tend to be more likely to be election day voters as opposed to early voters anyway) probably coalesced around him following the endorsement, after fluctuating between Vance and Mandel.

I wonder if we'll see a consistent trend of more moderate candidates doing well in Republican early vote given how demonized mail-in and early voting has become after 2020.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like Dolan's vote was early-heavy. Now trailing big in Dayton. I expect his small Cincinnati lead will evaporate similarly. A few more big Vance dumps like this and Wasserman will be confirmed. Looks like he's going to break 30%.

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I'm hearing Dave Wasserman has confirmed it will be a White Boy Summer.

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Being beautiful is a sign of virtue. Appearance is the first thing I look for in a candidate.

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Being beautiful is a sign of virtue. Appearance is the first thing I look for in a candidate.

Then I can take a guess which candidate you support in the Alabama Senate race...

That's right—Mo Brooks. (Jessica Taylor dropped out.)

[Senator Incitatus]

I wouldn't expect a winner in the R-SEN primary tonight, then. And since Sands is on the ballot, I'm not sure I can even confidently say what the Lancaster margins will look like.

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https://www.young4ky.com/

By the way did anyone see the Dem primary winner in Kentucky 6th ?

Just embarrassing, not that it will matter in the slightest.

Better than McGrath.

[Senator Incitatus]

Menendez is fairly safe and I'd be surprised if he fell under 65%. His challengers aren't seriously campaigning as far as I've seen and his father isn't unpopular in that particular district.

[Senator Incitatus]

Menendez is fairly safe and I'd be surprised if he fell under 65%. His challengers aren't seriously campaigning as far as I've seen and his father isn't unpopular in that particular district.

Prolly wishful thinking on my part given I tend to not like political legacies and am not a fan of Menendez, but in the Jersey City/Hoboken area, Menendez seems like quite a notorious name. If any progressive challenger wants to knock off Menendez, their core of support likely needs to be out of this area, especially Hoboken. This issue is Menendez is likely to run up the margins everywhere else.

If you mean relative to the rest of the district, sure, but the district as a whole is very favorable territory for the "Menendez name." His weaknesses in the rest of the state don't stick here. And I'll echo what has been said elsewhere regarding the difficulty of mounting a primary challenge in NJ.

I'd expect Menendez to stay in office for a couple decades if he wants.

[Senator Incitatus]

None of the Guest vote is in from near Jackson (Rankin, Hinds, and Madison counties) yet. In theory, I'd expect that to be friendlier to him than the present vote. Not only is it suburban and theoretically more moderate on things like January 6, Guest is from Rankin.

[Senator Incitatus]

Absolutely no surprises in NJ. Chris Smith having a relatively close primary is the closest.

Lol at Donald Payne breaking 80% against his Extremely Online challenger, though.

Healey-Smith being absolutely not close so far is surprising to me. That race got an extreme amount of attention, probably because of the candidates' personalities.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like both I and DD were too quick to count Smith out. Rapidly closing the margin with what I assume to be the election day vote.

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Axne's seat was probably Lean R no matter who the nominee was. It's an R district with a not-at-all strong incumbent.

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Are the Passaic results on NYT accurate? Can't imagine Selen is actually only getting 3% there, even though DeGroot should win the county in the end.

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Smith continuing to climb in NJ-3 but I doubt it's enough. Remains a fringe flip possibility with Healey, whereas Smith's nomination probably would have ended that talk.

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How I feel about the California results so far depends entirely on whether or not these are early/mail-in votes. Usually California counts them last, meaning a bump for Democrats. A bump for Democrats from the current baseline would mean that state is still trending away from Republicans (and the rest of the country).

The opposite (election day votes outstanding leading to a Republican bump) would mean a number of seats could be surprisingly competitive in the fall, though the state as a whole remains safely Democratic.

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Did Nevada actually vote today or not?

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Nevada results supposedly inbound.