NJ GOV (Emerson) - Murphy + 6

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Still going with roughly 54-46 Murphy. Clearly good poll for Jack, probably too late to fundraise off this stuff in a meaningful way. All that money's headed to Virginia anyway.

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Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

They also barely polled NJ, though their final poll in September was pretty much bang-on the margin.

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead. 

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

Show me the "other polls" being ignored. This is the only independent post-debate polling, and the other two most recent polls also have it at nine points.

We'll probably get another Monmouth and another Rutgers-Eagleton and that's it. Maybe a Q-poll. This is what we have to go on right now, and it matches what anyone who has been following the race thinks: a tighter-than-should-have-been win for Murphy.

Bottom line: wait for more polls before saying Murphy has either sewed it up or is in real trouble.

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People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

or maybe - just maybe - it's a bad poll!

Or maybe - just maybe - this race has actually tightened and you shouldn't just blindly dismiss anything you don't like as junk. Despite what you seem to think, Jack has actually run a pretty aggressive campaign.

And despite what you think, Murphy has also run a pretty aggressive campaign. Blue avatars do the same exact thing that I'm accused of doing here.

No he hasn't. Murphy has run a safe, boring campaign focused on preserving his base. He will probably get exactly what he played for: a small but sure win. Don't confuse a bad personality for aggression.

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Why are people taking this poll so seriously here? you guys really believe Ciattarelli is going to win independents by 25 points?

Christie won them by 30 in a race with a serious independent candidate running and Murphy only won them by four in a landslide. A Republican winning them by 25 (and losing) is not out of the question; it’s a very Democratic state and independents tend to be shy Republicans, particularly downstream from national politics.