NJ GOV 2025 megathread

[Senator Incitatus]

Most likely candidate not mentioned is Shaun Golden for the Republicans. Also a high likelihood Hugin puts out feelers, but only runs if he thinks it will be competitive.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm kind of surprised no one has mentioned Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.

At this point she should focus on getting re-elected.

[Senator Incitatus]

On the Republican side, Ciattarelli obviously can and should run again. After this result, he and Hugin will continue to control the state party for the foreseeable future.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not sure what's funny; Sweeney is the leading contender for the nomination, especially since Fulop has already declined, and the fact that he's announcing so early emphasizes that. Have to assume these replies have no idea how NJ politics work.

I would also give Baraka, Oliver, and Scutari a decent shot.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not sure what's funny; Sweeney is the leading contender for the nomination, especially since Fulop has already declined, and the fact that he's announcing so early emphasizes that. Have to assume these replies have no idea how NJ politics work.

I would also give Baraka, Oliver, and Scutari a decent shot.

Do you think Ras Baraka can play well in the suburbs?

No.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not sure what's funny; Sweeney is the leading contender for the nomination, especially since Fulop has already declined, and the fact that he's announcing so early emphasizes that. Have to assume these replies have no idea how NJ politics work.

I would also give Baraka, Oliver, and Scutari a decent shot.

Do you think Ras Baraka can play well in the suburbs?

No.

If Baraka can't, why could Booker? Booker won Morris in 2020.

Booker is from the suburbs, connected to the banking and pharmaceuticals industries, and isn’t the son of Amiri Baraka.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not at all a surprise or going to have any impact on 2025.

Of more interest, it seems like both Gottheimer and Sherrill are seriously gearing up to run which leads me to expect a fourth candidate from Central or South Jersey will begin to materialize, whether Sweeney or someone less conservative.

A lot more will be clear after November and we see whether the bleeding down there continues.

Didn’t Sweeney already announce he’s running?

I think (extemporaneous here) there were reports that he indicated he was running at a 2021 union meeting but nothing official and he has since denied.

[Senator Incitatus]

[snip]

I have to think this announcement was made with the idea of a possible House bid in mind for Way. I'm not sure which part of Passaic County she lives in, but she could be a candidate for Gottheimer or Sherrill's  seat if either are elected Governor in 2025, or for Pascrell's seat if he retires or dies in the imminent future (which is possible, as Pascrell is 86).

I believe she's from Totowa, but as a former Freeholder, she could probably run successfully in any of the three districts. Pascrell's makes the most sense since it's the most Passaic of the three by far.

[Senator Incitatus]

It seems like we're using this thread as a catch-all for everything including the legislative races, so this seems like a major story worth noting: one of the most competitive races (4th district) has likely just found its defining issue: bail reform.

An ex-Christie aide was arrested recently on particularly heinous allegations of sexual crimes against a child. You can read the story itself if you want the details, but I won't repeat them here.

Today, he was released on bail to his home in Washington Township, the largest municipality in the hyper-competitive 4th legislative district and also the home of both Senate candidates. The conditions of his bail are staying off the internet and not contacting the six-year old victim, but notably do not require him to keep distance from any other children. Both candidates have come out strongly against the release, but both sides are going to have something to deal with here: the accused is the former township Republican chair, while Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, the Democratic candidate, voted for the Christie-era bail reform law under which the release was possible. Moriarty insists that the Murphy-appointed judge misinterpreted the legislature's intent and he is "appalled," but the Republican nominee is hitting him on it pretty hard and has called for a special session to repeal the bail reform law. All in all, shaping up to be a particularly disgusting fall campaign in this district, even by New Jersey standards.

Elsewhere, the semi-coastal and nearly-as-competitive 11th district has settled on a much tamer issue: offshore wind farming. Opposition to new wind farms appears to favor the Republican ticket but we'll see if it has resonance; Democratic Senator Vin Gopal previously favored it before backpedaling, but the Republican candidate has been financially tied (albeit tenuously) to a chief contractor in the industry, and anti-wind sentiments may have settled down after they peaked when several whales beached earlier. (I'm not personally clear on how this was tied to wind farming, but it was.)

It's very unlikely that Republicans take back either chamber, but by now I'd be totally unsurprised if they take both of the above districts (in addition to safely picking up the 12th district Senate seat). Just don't see where they get another 2–3 districts; the 38th district is next, but the Democratic incumbents are strong and it doesn't seem like parental notification (on gender identity) will stick as a winning issue. Republicans have to hope for a general wave and a reversal of some pretty steep demographic trends in places like the 14th and 16th districts and even then they'd win by the skin of their teeth.