Places where McGovern-1972 did better than Carter-1976 (user search)
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  Places where McGovern-1972 did better than Carter-1976 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Places where McGovern-1972 did better than Carter-1976  (Read 932 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,515
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« on: May 19, 2019, 05:59:56 PM »

I've actually been off-and-on doing the 1976 swing map, and I've only found a handful of counties so far where the margin swung to Ford by >2%:

Kent, MI (+15%)
Washtenaw, MI (+9.8%)
Suffolk, MA (+5.7%)
San Francisco, CA (+5%)
Benton, WA (+3%)

Kent is Ford's home county. Washtenaw is the home of his alma mater.

Suffolk (Boston) and San Francisco are obviously highly liberal cities where most of the vote actually went from McGovern to third parties, not Ford.

Benton is more interesting – it was actually Ford's best county in the state. I have no explanation for why he did well there, but the swing is still pretty small.

I haven't checked most of the Midwest or Plains yet, so there might be a few more there, especially in South Dakota. Almost all of the south swung ≥30% to Carter.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,515
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2019, 05:48:53 PM »

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

That's where Ann Arbor is. Ford was the first Michigan grad to run for President and was a star on their football team to boot.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,515
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2019, 06:31:01 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2019, 06:36:53 PM by RoboWop »

In Washtenaw MI, McGovern not only did better than Carter (fighting against a favorite son) but won a county that Nixon won in '68. What was with that place?

That's where Ann Arbor is. Ford was the first Michigan grad to run for President and was a star on their football team to boot.

Yes but that doesn't explain how McGovern flipped the county from Nixon '68.

What constituency more than any other was pro-McGovern?

Hint: The only other Nixon-McGovern counties outside of South Dakota with a population of over 15,000 were Jackson (IL) and Athens (OH).
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