Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[jerusalemcar5]

Looks good.  However I must type the following in caps since I promised to bring this up in ever thread.

LIEBERMAN WILL NOT BE IN THE SENATE AS AN INDEPENDENT. AS HE SAID HE WAS, IS, AND ALWAYS WILL BE A DEMOCRAT.  HE WOULDN'T GIVE THAT UP TO BE LABELED AN "INDEPENDENT". 

CT is the safest of all Democratic seats.  Thank you.

[jerusalemcar5]

Personally, I am beginning to reverse earlier statements about Walsh being too popular.  Maffei's campaign is better organized, more widespread, and has more ads that are more powerful.  Just driving around my very Republican town (there are no Dems at any level of government) there are dozens of Maffei signs and I've spotted only one Walsh sign.  Between Foley, Bush, Iraq, and gas, I would say NY-25 is "lean R", maybe even a tossup.

[jerusalemcar5]

Personally, I am beginning to reverse earlier statements about Walsh being too popular.  Maffei's campaign is better organized, more widespread, and has more ads that are more powerful.  Just driving around my very Republican town (there are no Dems at any level of government) there are dozens of Maffei signs and I've spotted only one Walsh sign.  Between Foley, Bush, Iraq, and gas, I would say NY-25 is "lean R", maybe even a tossup.

As a rule, I do not base any predictions on "anecdotal research" as you have just supplied.  When the one Dem internal poll (though stale) I have says that Walsh is leading, I can't consider it anywhere near toss-up.  However, Walsh will probably be moving to the bottom of Lean R, mainly because I think conditions have slightly worsened for Republicans as of this week.

Oh obviously that's nothing conclusive.  However combined with that poll, and the Foley scandal, I think Walsh is surprisingly vulnerable.  The Dems are pouring a surprisingly high amount of money here as well.  I just think Lean is the only legitimate prediciton that can be made here.