Are Republicans ...

[opebo]

...In the EC, they both have about 200 votes solid, which leaves at least 130 up for grabs. 

Haha, you must be one of those who think Pennsylvania is a tossup or something.  Maybe even Michigan?

In reality Obama has 243 electoral votes solid, and McCain 206:

[opebo]

Anyway, I don't disagree that Obama will probably win.

No, no, I don't have any strong belief at all that Obama will win, I'm just saying that I'm very confident that Michigan, Pennsylvania, that congressional district in Maine will all go Democrat reliably.  I even think Nevada and Wisconsin are pretty reliable:

However, even with this floor of 253, just 17 votes shy of the mark, I think this result is as likely as any Obama win:

[opebo]

...I'm not sure we disagree here.  Do you just like arguing?

What was my prediction map?  ...Okay, here it is:

Obama 285.  Romney 253.  (ignore the confidence map.  I never really take that one seriously.)

My map is almost the same as yours.  We only differ on Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

No, no, I'm not arguing, just discussing.  We're not far off, no, not at all.  However my prediction is another matter entirely, and it is based on an optimistic but unprovable guess about Hispanics and turnout:

What I was getting at above was that I think the Romney win I showed was just as likely as any Obama win. 

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Really Opebo? All white men are the same, so you can't tell them apart?

Yeah, you're right - I find Romney far more dreadful than McCain.

[opebo]

People living in foreign countries have no idea what its like to live in America. 

You're quite right about that - virtually every Asian I've met who has lived in America for a time, and particularly Thais, hated it.  Thai people are always so glad to come home it is rather endearing.  Of course, to be fair, those who go to study in the UK hate it even more than those who go to the US.