NC-Civitas: Obama by 4 now

[opebo]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

[opebo]

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

Got it - masterfully explained.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

Yes, when I make my precinct-level maps, I always notice how much the early vote helps Democrats.

Obama got 56% of the early/absentee votes.

You mean nationally?  Or in North Carolina.  I'm just saying in these southern states the early voting skews white - I understand seatown's point about early voting putting him over the top even if he loses whites less-badly in early voting than on election day - I'm just saying that it is hard to believe he would actually get a majority of early voting in a southern state, where most early voting is white, and most whites vote R.