NC-Civitas: Obama by 4 now

[Tender Branson]

Civitas Poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was taken Sept. 18-19:

49%    Total Obama/ Biden
45%    Total Romney/ Ryan

47%    Total Obama/ Biden
43%    Total Romney/ Ryan
  4%    Total Johnson/ Gray

Previous poll was 53-43 Romney, so this is a 14-point movement towards Obama ...

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-obama-biden-lead-gop-ticket

[Miles]

Ouch.

Dalton is still probably down though....

[Eraserhead]

Damn.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that right now there is a greater chance that Obama wins North Carolina than Romney winning Ohio.

[Eraserhead]

Romney's support is softer than Obama's too:

43%    Total Romney/ Ryan
47%    Total Obama/ Biden
4%      Total Johnson/ Gray

36%     Definitely Romney
6%       Probably Romney
1%       Lean Romney   2%       Definitely Johnson
1%       Probably Johnson
1%       Lean Johnson
43%     Definitely Obama
3%       Probably Obama
1%       Lean Obama   4%       Hard undecided
–         Other
2%       Refused

[Craigo]

Obama'a numbers in both polls are still within the margin of error, though just barely. The Romney collapse was over twice the margin. Obama pulling 47% is like the electorate winking at us.

[Dancing with Myself]

Ouch.

Dalton is still probably down though....

He's down by 13 according to Rasmussen.

[Skill and Chance]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

[opebo]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

[Andrew1]

Previous poll was 53-43 Romney, so this is a 14-point movement towards Obama ...

That poll was by Survey USA on behalf of Civitas so may not be directly comparable with this one.

It also had weird Survey USA crosstabs including Romney getting 30% of African Americans.

[LastVoter]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

I also wonder if GA would be tied right now.

[Lief 🗽]

This election looks more and more over every day.

[mondale84]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

I also wonder if GA would be tied right now.

Probably within the margin of error, like Tennessee, Indiana and Arizona.

[Donerail]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

I also wonder if GA would be tied right now.

Probably within the margin of error, like Tennessee, Indiana and Arizona.

Hey Mondale, let's make an agreement, a bargain of sorts. If your guy wins the election, there is traditionally a period of gloating that follows such. You're not allowed to do that unless Obama breaks 48% in Tennessee, okay?

[Phony Moderate]

How much did Bush win NC by in 2004? About 12 points? Demographic changes and all I know, but still quite remarkably appalling for Romney.

[Miles]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

Yes, when I make my precinct-level maps, I always notice how much the early vote helps Democrats.

Obama got 56% of the early/absentee votes.

[mondale84]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

I also wonder if GA would be tied right now.

Probably within the margin of error, like Tennessee, Indiana and Arizona.

Hey Mondale, let's make an agreement, a bargain of sorts. If your guy wins the election, there is traditionally a period of gloating that follows such. You're not allowed to do that unless Obama breaks 48% in Tennessee, okay?

What's the trade-off? If he does, you stop being an a**hole?

[opebo]

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

Got it - masterfully explained.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

Yes, when I make my precinct-level maps, I always notice how much the early vote helps Democrats.

Obama got 56% of the early/absentee votes.

You mean nationally?  Or in North Carolina.  I'm just saying in these southern states the early voting skews white - I understand seatown's point about early voting putting him over the top even if he loses whites less-badly in early voting than on election day - I'm just saying that it is hard to believe he would actually get a majority of early voting in a southern state, where most early voting is white, and most whites vote R.

[Donerail]

The interesting thing about NC is how early most of the state votes.  If the race closes in the final weeks, it actually raises the possibility that Obama wins NC on account of the early vote while losing other swing states that traditionally lean more to the left.

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

The whites early vote 35% for Obama before Romney wins the debates, as opposed to 25% on the election day, and the blacks show up on the election day to seal the deal even if Obama loses other swing states.

I also wonder if GA would be tied right now.

Probably within the margin of error, like Tennessee, Indiana and Arizona.

Hey Mondale, let's make an agreement, a bargain of sorts. If your guy wins the election, there is traditionally a period of gloating that follows such. You're not allowed to do that unless Obama breaks 48% in Tennessee, okay?

What's the trade-off? If he does, you stop being an a**hole?

I believe the traditional phrase involves consumption of a head covering.

[Miles]

Is the early vote really that D-leaning in a state like NC?  Given that early voting will be overwhelmingly white... Romney should win the white vote in NC handily.

Yes, when I make my precinct-level maps, I always notice how much the early vote helps Democrats.

Obama got 56% of the early/absentee votes.

You mean nationally?  Or in North Carolina.  I'm just saying in these southern states the early voting skews white - I understand seatown's point about early voting putting him over the top even if he loses whites less-badly in early voting than on election day - I'm just saying that it is hard to believe he would actually get a majority of early voting in a southern state, where most early voting is white, and most whites vote R.

Yes, I was just talking about NC.

For instance, here's Wake County without absentee/early votes:



And here it is with all the votes represented: