The good news for Mittens is that the next state after Colorado is New Hampshire, which falls to Mittens when the two party swing is 4.86%, with Mittens getting 51.56% of the two party vote.
Can NH trend more than 1.56% Mittens' way, giving him 270 electoral votes even if he loses Colorado? Yes, I think that is in the cards. NH is just made for Mittens ($$$ is more important up there than the currency used in the celestial kingdom, be it the traditional one, or the new age/secular humanist one), and he has one of his homes there, and Hispanics don't live there. The Pubs are very fortunate in that way - very fortunate. NH in short is the place that causes Mittens not to be hold "hostage" to Hispanics, to be blunt about it (assuming he can carry AZ, which I think still has a 1%-2% Pub bias, even after adjusting for the McCain home-state factor and Hispanic Dem trends).
Well done, good analysis. Its a one shot deal, assuming (as I think is correct) the Hispanic lock-out you mention.
Of course if we start to get into this 'which state can trend than the uniform swing', this brings up other problems - Virginia is also trending Democrat, of course much more moderately so than Colorado - and Romney is a
terrible fit for Ohio. So.. its definitely trying to thread the needle for your favorite aristocrat.
