Way too optimistic. Obama's numbers are undoubtedly on the upswing but I have a hard time believing that he beats Huckabee and Romney by double digits while the economy is still in such a sluggish state.
Indeed. Luckily, it will have recovered by then.
And the GOP will claim it was due to their forcing the upper income tax cut extension.
It won't matter what anybody claims; the fact is a tolerable economy = positive for incumbent regardless of specific policies or attributions of those. However I suppose it is far from certain that the economy will be 'recovered' by that time.. or rather, whether it will be perceived to have recovered.