Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, back in 2017 he defeated Sarwar 56.7 to 43.3, with the bulk of that margin coming from affiliates - amongst the membership it was 51.8 to 48.2.

And this was also against one of the worst leadership campaigns I've ever seen - having basically no answer for 'why does your family firm, which you have shares in, not pay a living wage' is probably not ideal in a Labour leadership contest.

I expect we'll elect him or Baillie or someone like that and things will then be crap in a slightly different way.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

While Salmond is extremely unpopular, I'm a bit uneasy with how seemingly the entire commentariat has decided to proclaim that that one poll is as good as an election result. (Though it is in keeping with the relentless hyping of every poll on Scottish independence) It's a single poll, there's still some time to go and it doesn't need to be too far off for seats to be a possibility.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

Alba is more socially conservative and is clearly going for more of a 'macho' vibe.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I think there's been a few? I was basing mine off the Yougov favourability ratings which were pre-Alba officially launching (I think?)

Only one voting intention poll for now.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There must be a chance on current poll figures, the big question will be if the SNP undershoot those on the day (which is indeed what happened in 2016)

Especially considering the gap between how Labour is currently polling and Sarwar's very good approval ratings (and Ross's very bad ones)...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In Aberdeen Central, voted for Mr Sarwar to restore Order and Progress a bit after 1. The polling station was practically deserted.

I don't expect the result here to be anything other than a bone-crushing SNP landslide (if you go around town you'll notice the only parties whose supporters are putting up signs seem to be SNP and Alba) but if the turnout carried on like that after I left, then who knows really, maybe the Labour candidate (who I have not bothered to research at all because, knowing Aberdeen Labour, he'd probably tremendously disappoint me in some way) could even get within 15 points of Kevin Stewart this time, or the Tories will come second, or something even sillier.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What I'm hearing from the Aberdeen Donside count suggests SNP possibly down from 2016, Tories up noticeably but still miles behind, Labour holding steady, Lib Dems flirting with losing their deposit.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What I'm hearing from the Aberdeen Donside count suggests SNP possibly down from 2016, Tories up noticeably but still miles behind, Labour holding steady, Lib Dems flirting with losing their deposit.

The actual result was SNP 51.6 (-4.4) Tories 26.4 (+8) Labour 15.3 (-3) LD 6 (-1.3) TUSC 0.7. So quite strong for the Tories and not too bad for Labour and the Lib Dems considering the Tories' position as the 'tactical' (they beat Labour by 30-odd votes last time but who cares about that, lol) unionist choice.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

It feels like the few Green constituency candidates are possibly drawing more of their support from 2016 Labour voters than I would have guessed.