2020 Labour Leadership Election

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Not many CLPs have nominated thusfar, but those that have have overwhelmingly gone for Starmer. This isn't fantastic for those candidates reliant on the CLP route for ballot access.

The interesting thing is how most have gone Starmer/Rayner. Both of them seem to fall into that comfortable 'they don't look like they would invade Iraq and I can project a vague sense of Old Labour values onto them' zone. Perhaps the same thing that led people to hanker after Brown as the prince across the water, helped Ed M to narrowly beat his brother, and allowed Corbyn to win when all the other candidates vacated that space to play to the media even as the exact same selectorate was happy to vote for Tom Watson and Sadiq Khan.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Possibly the slightly more notable thing is that I don't think Nandy has picked up a nomination. The rumour is that she's in with a shot at getting the CWU nomination, but if she doesn't seem like a viable candidate in her own right then there isn't necessarily a good reason for them to waste political capital when they could nominate somebody who might win instead.

This post didn't age well.

True. Also, I got the CWU and GMB mixed up. That said, it still might not turn out to be a good use of political capital.

There was definitely a rumour that the CWU would do it. And of course they haven't actually endorsed yet.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Slightly more surprising is that they also endorsed Burgon, proving that the cranks are fully in control over there.

Is it more that they're cranks, or is it more that they know Burgon is a pliable moron?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I went back and forth with Nandy; I'm aware that I'm in a bubble of people who would vote for her (right wingers who think Keir is a traitor is for going near the Shadow Cabinet) but equally I think she had the most growth in the campaign & was likely to hoover up among people who were going to back Jess.

She has a very odd coalition, doesn't she? Simultaneously appealing to people like you, the provincial members Al mentions, a few Very Real Concerns types, and the few Young Labour people I follow on Twitter who argue endlessly about the meaning of the term 'soft left'.

Personally, I could never get past her tolerance of the tedious grifter Ian Warren.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, where does Annelise Dodds stand besides the nebulous "soft-left" label? Is she to the left of Reeves?

Yes; I don't know the dynamics of her selection (the easiest way of working out someones factional standing at the start of their career) but she's broadly seen as being more on the left than Reeves but she's certainly not part of the left within the party.

AIUI, she was a well-respected MEP going up against a (left-wing) councillor who had only been in office for about a year. Don't think that really says anything about her.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The interesting thing to watch is A.) The role Long-Bailey gets B.) What the Corbyn friendly/SGC intake from 2017 & 2019 get in the junior roles.

If I were Starmer, I would start offering the surprisingly large number of them who didn't nominate Burgon in the deputy contest jobs and see who bites.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

At this stage, the grumpiness amongst online Corbynism seems to extend much more widely, which is interesting because there hasn't been that much concrete to be grumpy about.

The aesthetics are all wrong now and that's enough for some.