CA-16 Eshoo to Retire (Swing Low, Sweet Recount)

[Sestak]

Media has been talking for some time about former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo having an interest in the seat; I think redistricting last cycle did increase the seat’s cut into San Jose.

[Sestak]

I saw a rumor on twitter Evan Low’s chief of staff is running for Low’s seat, and that Low might run for Eshoo’s

Yeah the two names I’ve already heard rumored in the last day are Low (state rep, former Campbell mayor, Andrew Yang campaign co-chair) and Joe Simitian (Santa Clara co. Supervisor, former state senator and state rep).

In addition to those two and Liccardo, the one name I’d keep in mind is State Sen. Josh Becker, who represents around two-thirds of the district at present. No idea if he wants to run but he’s always seemed like an ambitious guy. Fairly standard Newsom-aligned dem.

[Sestak]

Former Saratoga city councilor Rishi Kumar, who primary challenged Eshoo in 2020 and 2022 and got into the top-two on both occasions, is already running, having filed months ago for what he probably thought was just another rematch.

FWIW the 36.8% he got in 2020, and the 42.2% he got in 2022, both seem like relatively high performances against an entrenched incumbent. A lot of it might be Indian-Americans voting for the candidate from their community (did the district's Indian-American population go up in redistricting? It could explain him doing even better in 2022 compared to 2020).

For those not familiar with him, Kumar is a grifter’s grifter. He is the darling candidate of the ardently pro-BJP subset of Indians in the district, and from what I can tell tries to latch on to some more generic Asian identitarian stuff as well. His campaigns essentially operate as resume mills - he hires a bunch of high school kids from the area as interns so they can put campaign work on their college applications. This happens continuously throughout the cycle - he had people in July of 2021 knocking doors to tell people how awesome Rishi Kumar was. His staffers have also been known to place his signs in the lawns of any Indian household regardless of whether they support him or not.

In addition to the BJP faction’s backing, Kumar has clearly been the preferred candidate of Republicans both times he’s run - including both people who actually vote Republican as well as the substantial contingent of people who identify with some conservative lean but would never actually vote for Trump or Elder or anyone else the GOP puts up. At least part of his improvement can probably be chalked up to 2022 simply being a redder year than 2020 - especially with these types of districts where party-line Democrats didn’t have much to turn out for.

[Sestak]

Local sources are now reporting that San Mateo has cured its final ballot, for Simitian, and that counting is now fully complete, as follows:

Liccardo (Dem) 38,489
Low (Dem) 30,249
Simitian (Dem) 30,249

Almost certainly there will be a recount requested, but as it stands this would send us to a three-way November general.

[Sestak]

Local sources are now reporting that San Mateo has cured its final ballot, for Simitian, and that counting is now fully complete, as follows:

Liccardo (Dem) 38,489
Low (Dem) 30,249
Simitian (Dem) 30,249

Almost certainly there will be a recount requested, but as it stands this would send us to a three-way November general.

Will there actually be a recount requested? My understanding is that whoever requests the recount must pay for it, and neither Low nor Simitian would want to risk not advancing to the next round. Liccardo could request it if he thinks that he has a better chance against one opponent rather than two, but I think there is some chance of a move like this backfiring; voters might interpret asking for a recount when you're in first place as too-clever or spiteful.

I guess a recount could happen, but from my vantage point it seems like it's in everyone's interest to accept this result and go to the three-cornered general.

Yeah, that was my immediate reaction but it does look like it’s substantially less likely, especially as it seems both Simitian and Low would have to spend the majority of their war chests (Low would have to spend basically all of his money) to pay for it.

As you allude to, there are some interesting potential incentives for Liccardo but it’s unclear if he’d actually go for it.

[Sestak]

I have spent a good amount of time in this district, and my impression is that:

• Simitian is the candidate of the boomer NIMBYs who have no actual vision for the future. e.g. in the SF Chronicle's endorsement of Liccardo, the editorial boarded how Simitian gave "few details about what specific policies he would champion."
• Liccardo is the candidate of young and middle-aged center-left normie Dems, tech companies, a small proportion of progressive interest groups, and a few chamber of commerce types who strategically favor Liccardo.
• Low is the definite progressive in the race, posturing towards the median of the House Progressive Caucus, which is as far left as acceptable in Silicon Valley. His support comes mainly from younger folks and most of the progressive interest groups, along with the small amount of labor representation in the area.

There also is the factor of Asian and Hispanic identity groups favoring Low and Liccardo respectively, but I don't know how those dynamics intersect with ideology and the nimby/yimby divides.

This is broadly correct, though it somewhat overstates how progressive Low actually is. I would describe both Low and Liccardo as somewhat vaguely technocratic types who each embody their own generation's quirks. Both of them have been quite friendly towards tech companies in their careers; outside of tech Liccardo is the more business-friendly of the two. Liccardo is has the most openly pro-housing record of the three; Low has mostly been a party line guy who has largely downplayed the issue while Simitian is very clearly a creature of the residentialist crowd.

In general, Low doesn't talk about any local issues; he's tacked left this campaign to identify with the "soft" part of the CPC and all of his (incredibly obnoxious) advertising talks exclusively about how "Evan Low fought Trump" and then doesn't explain what he's supposed to have done. One could interpret this as trying to thread the needle with both younger progressives and older residents who tend to take more conservative positions on local issues.

Also, it is worth noting, Simitian being a candidate of the Bay Area political old guard does make him a genuinely pretty liberal politician - just one that's extremely disappointing on the set of issues a lot of us really care about.